The key phrase is, "Articles of Confederation and perpetual Union between the States." "Perpetual" modifies "Union." "Perpetual Union" not "perpetual Articles." Otherwise it would have been called the "Perpetual Articles of Confederation."
Your conclusions, therefore, in #(1) and #(5), do not reasonably follow from the premise of the Articles.
The "perpetual Union" carried on, only the operating document changed.
Sorry. #1 was 'The "perpetual" Articles were replaced, i.e. were terminated .'
Both Governments could not be understood to exist at the same time. The new Government did not commence until the old Government expired.What "union" were the states members of from 1 Nov 1788 through 4 Mar 1789? Even then, when the new government formed, were the other 2 excluded states members of this new "union" despite having NOT ratified? If North Carolina and Rhode Island & Providence Plantations NEVER ratified would they be in that same union? To have a "union", one must have a common bond. The government is that bond. The government was dissolved. James Wilson, on 30 Jun 1787 stated, 'If a minority should refuse their assent to the new plan of a general government, and if they will have their own will, and without it separate the Union, let it be done.'
Chief Justice John Marshall, Owings v. Speed, 5 Wheat. 419 (1820)