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I don't think it is that straight forward. For instance, lets pretend that all the conservatives leave Arnold as you hypothesize and they are about 50% of Arnold's 35% or about 17%. First, I think we have to realistically acknowledge the proabability of that happening in the next ten days. I think we can all agree the likelihood of that happening is pretty small if non-existent.

But anyway lets say it does happen. New poll comes out next week and Arnold is at 17% Bustamovemante is at 33% and Mcc is at 34%. Will Arnolds remaining 17% still vote for Arnold knowing that Mcc may win or will a portion of them shift their allegiance to Bustamovemante? Will the liberals and moderates still vote yes for the recall knowing that a full fledged conservative has a good chance of winning?

The whole dynamic of the race would change thus making any such predictions to outcome nearly impossible IMHO. However, I think the first part of your premise that their is some way at this stage in the game to move all conservatives from Arnold to Mcc is highly unlikely.

Hopefully, as the days move closer Republicans will look to see who the front runner is and everyone (other than the truly devoted)will rally around him and Davis will be gone.

BTW. There is a guy on the ballot named Fred Flinstonius from Sacramento. Believe it or not he is even more conservative and more in line with the party platform than Mcc.. although in the latest poll he garners only .005% of the vote. I want to know why some of you on here are not suporting him. Is the test for which candidate to support

A)the guy who is the most conservative and the guy who most closely lines up with the party platform

or

B)the guy who is the most conservative.. and who can win..

If it is A than vote for Flinstonius, If it is B than vote for Arnold.. Of course Flinstonius is a hypothetical person, but what if he was a real person among those 134. Would the vote be cast for Flinstonius over Mcc beacuse he is more conservative.. or would you "compromise your principles" and vote for MCC because he has a better shot of winning.

For the Arnold voters, I think we should be gentle with the MCC suporters. First, most of us probably agree with the MCC supporters on more issues than Arnold. Second, Arnold has a good chance of winning without them. Third, at a later date MCC could be a very useful figure in California politics, namely vs. Barbara Boxer. However, if too much animosity is built against MCC then he won't be of any use in any future election. Finally, the more the MCC supporters are attacked, the more they will respond defensively and emotionally and be drawn toward him.

Yet we can keep reminding people of the benefits of voting for Arnold and getting rid of Davis. For instance, just the displeasure of Bill Clinton (who was supposed to be Davis's guru) when Davis is recalled, might be enough to get a few MCC supporters to move over.

I can just see him biting his lip in anger right now, ick. But come on, thats another big loss for Clinton, (the alleged political genuis).