The creator of the X-Prize is now publicly narrowing down the teams that he believes will win it. Rutan and Carmack'
s entry, the Black Armadillo will probably be succesful next year in flying to space. Rutan will probably win it, but Carmack's design may have some key advantages with high-flight rate operations. The rockets he's using will be extremely cheap and reliable, probably better than what Rutan's building. Once the X-Prize is won, Carmack could end up being the more succesful company.
I personally believe that Burt Rutan's
White Knight/SpaceShipOne program is by far the leading contender to win the X-Prize, mostly because Rutan's company has demonstrated pretty much everything works. I actually see the first powered attempt to reach 100 km altitude on December 3, 2003 and the second attempt before December 17, 2003, the 100th Anniversary of the Wright Brothers' first successful powered flight.
Armadillo Aerospace's ideas seem intriguing but they've yet to build actual flyable hardware--let alone do anything close to a full-scale test flight!