IMHO this is the current situation.
Arnold is within striking distance of outright plurality, Cruz and Tom are on cruise control, waiting for Gray Davis's patented last minute hit piece to hit the airwaves.
I have watched this man in politics since he worked for the Moonbeam and it is his standard MO.
When it arrives, even if later proven untrue, is the other shoe that everyone is waiting to drop. All the men in the race (which includes Huffington) know it is coming.
Tom is basing his future on the fallout being bad enough to be able to pick up the slack and beat Cruz.
Cruz on the otherhand is flipping a coin, hoping that the disgust in Davis remains high enough to still slip in.
As much as many of us here would like, Tom will never, EVER, win the state. He is one of us after all. With the entrenched press corps and hostile legislature, he would be a one termer, if not recalled himself by one manufactured scandal or another, on the off chance he managed to slip into the seat.
The fact is, with nearly the entire state in the Republician grasp GEOGRAPHICALLY, the Population is staunchly Democratic, with regristration running far and above the Republician numbers. It is a FACT, not arguable. If you doubt this, I can only refer you to the last presidential election.
http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images/view?back=http%3a//images.search.yahoo.com/search/images%3fc=fullcov%26ei=UTF-8%26p=2000%2belection%2bmap%2bcalifornia&h=563&w=807&imgurl=www.polidata.org/en2000/cy00p4cb.gif&name=cy00p4cb.gif&p=2000+election+map+california&rurl=http://www.polidata.org/en2000/default.htm&no=2&tt=3 It was never close. Looking at the map, it is clear that with most of the population centered on the coast, the Dems will easily win any election contested by a conservative such as Tom. With allies like the LA Times, SF Cron and the SD Union, all of which serve the population centers of the state and will go all out to defeat Tom, or anyone like him.
Pointing at Reagan is a fond memory, we are in new times. In the 70's, when I first voted for Reagan, we lived in a different era. Nostalgia is great, but I like to live in the NOW.
If Reagan were to run today, he would be eaten alive. The 24 hour news cycle combined with the creepy preference the media has for outright manufacturing "news" would, IMHO, doom him.
Go ahead, flame away. I am confident in my conservative credentials and will yield to no one in my defence of them.
I am however an old observer of California politics and I call them as I see them. Living in a conservative area of the state like the Sacramento suburbs as I do, can make you loose sight of the fact that the era of huge numbers of Aerospace workers and construction workers has passed to one of service industry employees and internet hucksters.
All that being said, I, like many others are keeping our options open.
Cheers,
knews hound
I agree with you that Davis is going to perform his last minute body slam on Arnold (25+ million will buy a lot of airtime). Arnold will not have time to get off the mate after it and the only one left standing will be Tom and he knows it. Bust-my-wallet is already dropping off the radar screen, keeping low from what's going to hit the fan. MC might pull it through because the broccoli that I work with have taken notice and are scare to death of Bust-my-wallet and would vote for MC except for the "he can't win" mantra. The last two days of the campaign will tell the tale. To all, wait and go to the poles. Don't send in those absentee ballots until you know who is on top.
