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Simon lost because he didn't receive as many votes from moderates as did Davis. Relax, Dan. We can disagree without resorting to invective.

You are just plain wrong. Go look at the exit poll cross tabs in the LA Times. There is no evidence voters abandoned Simon on his conservatism. The abortion issue was an even push. This is a myth that gets repeated over and over. In 1998 Lungren actually GAINED votes because he was prolife. Besides, McClintock should have lost by the same amount as Simon if it was based on dislike of conservatives. McClintock came within a handful of votes of winning.

I did as you suggested and checked the L.A. Times exit polls following the last election. A neutral reading produces conclusions I think are more complex than you may think.

Results for those who identified themselves as "moderates" based on political ideology: Davis-52%, Simon-37%

Results for those who identified themselves as "moderate independents" based on ideology and party: Davis-50%, Simon-27%.

Surprisingly, for those who identified themselves as "moderate Republicans" Simon lost 25% of those votes.

This recent history doesn't give me a warm feeling about McClintock's chances with these critical voter blocs. That's why I think he would not pick up enough of Arnold's moderate votes to win (if Arnold did as you suggest and dropped out of the race).