I disagree. As governor, his stance on abortion has very little effect on the abortion debate as a whole. Parental notification is good, as is his stance against partial-birth abortion. But he is still pro-choice.
As a U.S. Senator, he could not be counted upon being against Roe v. Wade. That's the ballgame for the entire nation, not just California.
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I agree with you re: Arnold as senator.
Re: TM though - he's a policy wonk, not a personality. And since being senator is all about charisma & bringing home the bacon, I doubt TM would do very well in DC.