*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[Grand Old Partisan]

Don't forget that Ronald Reagan had been a Republican for less time when he first ran for Governor than Arnold Schwarzenegger has been.

[JCEccles]

I don't have time for you.

You have time, or you don't have an answer?

[NYC Republican]

Nice, take what I say completely out of context...

This is the first time I've seen you post, I've posted thousands of times. My conservative credentials are pretty well established...

I'm certainly not swayed by his star power, but many, many uninformed independants and Dems are, and we need some of their votes as well, in a state where Dems far outnumber Reps.

Celebrity Worship? I'd respond more harshly to that accusation, but I'll try and keep my comments at a more civil level.

[Spiff]

Prediction- Arnold's performance will crush all others tonight.

Prediction - no it won't. He's not working from a script here with multiple takes. His flubs can't be edited out. He's got to be able to think on his feet and formulate and communicate a credible opinion. He's demonstrated that he can't do that.

[NYC Republican]

If Arnold never got into the race, the recall would NEVER pass. What is your evidence? How do you know that?

You think Simon got a raw deal last year? Add in what the leftist media would also throw at McClintock, and he's toast. The fact that Arnold appeals to voters across the spectrum speaks volumes. Even with Arnold in there, the recall is just barely over 50% in favor.

[JCEccles]

Correction: You don't have time, or you don't have an answer?

It is a simple question, really. What is your evidence for your bald assertion that McClintock cannot beat Bustamante?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

McC CANNOT beat Bustamencha

What is your evidence? How do you know that?

Great question, the dithering and running away from it was noted JCEccles.

I've watched this one rationalize without shame for its Celebrity that it wants soooo bad. Don't worry about it saying you don't know what's going on in CA, you know what is going on quite well.

Here's another thing you probably already know about CA, onyx is here.

[Grand Old Partisan]

Without his star power, Ronald Reagan would not have been elected Governor of California.

[JCEccles]

My conservative credentials are pretty well established

Then you would prefer to see a conservative win a close race than a liberal win a cakewalk?

[SteveH]

What is your evidence? How do you know that?

Because!!! She just told you, that's why!!!

;-)

[NYC Republican]

I'll quote fellow FReeper (on another thread) Booty-ist monk

Arnold has done 1000s upon 1000s of interviews with the press in every corner of the globe in his 20+ year career and made over a billion dollars understanding how to play to the camera. There is no more media savvy candidate.

Since debates are as much about image as message (Norwood/Dingle, anyone), McClintamantites that think Arnold is going to be outclassed in front of the cameras are delusional.

[onyx]

FYI: McClintock leads Bustamente and Arnold in WHICH poll?

There's 3 in the race: Arnold, Cruz and Tom. Tom trails badly in ALL polls.

[NYC Republican]

Then you would prefer to see a conservative win a close race than a liberal win a cakewalk?

Absolutely, but for the last time, Arnold is in it to stay. Show me any poll, ANY, that shows McClintock competitive (not even in the lead)?

{{{{{crickets}}}}}

[Cooter]

Does this poll take into account the 700,000 absentee votes that have already been cast? Wouldn't that large number mean that a "true" 1-on-1 matchup can no longer be considered in such a poll? Is it statistically significant? Does it approach the MOE?

[Dave S]

This poll indicates that McClintock COULD win a head-to-head race

You are willing to bet California's and your families futures on the mere possibility that he could win when its looking more and more like Schwartzeneger is a virtual certaintly?

[TheBigB]

I truly do not know. As I've said, I've emailed Peter Robinson and asked him for more info.

[pogo101]

What is your evidence for your bald assertion that McClintock cannot beat Bustamante?

Let me play Devil's advocate here.

The only evidence that McClintock COULD beat Bustamante is polls, like the one leading off this thread, which essentially say McClintock has slightly better than a coin-flip chance of beating Bustamante in a race in which Schwarzenegger is not an option.

But Schwarzenegger IS, and will remain, an option. (Even if he were to announce he was dropping out, or fell over dead tomorrow, he already has taken hundreds of thousands of the reported 700,000+ absentee votes already mailed in.)

Accordingly, the hypothetical condition underlying the 42 - to - 40 result in this poll has not been met and is very unlikely to BE met.

This isn't really evidence that McClintock CANNOT beat Bustamante, but it strongly suggests that there is little evidence that, in the race that's ACTUALLY being run (i.e., WITH Schwarzenegger), McClintock CAN do so.

To me, such poll results' principal value is to refute hardcore Arnold folks who say that McClintock could never have won anyway. Plainly, based on this poll, if Arnold had never gotten in (and if other biggie GOP folks also hadn't gotten in for long), Tom could have won, albeit perhaps in a squeaker.

[Sabertooth]

Look, I know its hard to admit defeat, its never easy. But there comes a time when you just have to, no matter how emotionally invested, admit the truth of the situation.

To characterize ideological differences as "emotional investment" badly misses the mark.

The truth of the situation is that a pro-Amnesty for Illegal Aliens Governor Schwarzenegger would be bad for California, bad for the Republican Party, and bad for America.

Unless and until Arnold Schwarzenegger recants his support for legalizing Illegals, and enthusiastically supports the Save Our License referendum, he will not be receiving my vote.

[ConservativeStandUP]

"Probably it would depend whether Arnold pulled out gracefully, threw his support to McClintock, and campaigned for him. "

I thought Tom had enough juice to win it on his own..oh wait, Arnold would still have to sell the conservative message eh? That'd be tough for a guy as liberal as Arnold.

[JCEccles]

There is no more media savvy candidate.

Of all candidates for public office in this great nation (or do you just mean California?), Schwarzenegger is at the top of the heap? Will you please tell us your criteria for evaluating these tens of thousands of candidates, your evidence of Schwarzenegger's superiority, and your evidence of their inferiority so we can substantively evaluate the accuracy of your claim?

I am beginning to suspect that Schwarzenegger's supporters have no real evidence beyond their own emotional opinions. Resorting to hyperbole is usually a solid indicator of emotion overtaking reason.