Replies

From WxAmerica meteorologist Larry Cosgrove

At this point, I suspect Isabel will skirt the shoreline of the Delmarva Peninsula before smashing into S NJ. This track scenario mirrors the UKMET scheme and lies very close to the ECMWF panels (which, under a higher resolution outlay of the home site of the model, shows a path just east of Chesapeake Bay), and is not that far from the GFS outlook either. I am going with the idea of a full phasing of Isabel with the oncoming trough complex. In history, such an action almost always creates historical weather events: Hazel (1954) set pressure and wind records in much of the Mid-Atlantic region into ONT; Agnes (1972) inundated much of PA....NY....NJ with as much as 30 inches of rainfall. I cannot say for sure what particular threat is greater with this hurricane, but the presence of a 1026MB anticyclone north and east (as well as north and west, into the Great Lakes) probably implies strong, gradient-enhanced wind gusts. The addition of vorticity from the trough may offset system weakening somewhat, so while Isabel enters (briefly) cooler SSTs before landfall, there is a case for 2-4 hours of sustained 100 mph or greater bursts along the path of the eye. I might also note that acceleration of the core pressures from S NJ into SW QC may devastate E MD....DE....NJ....C, E PA....C, E NY....W CT....W
MA....VT....W, C QC with damaging windfields and torrential rains (and a few tornadoes as well). Just keep in mind that adjustments in the storm track are highly probable through the 72 hour time frame.

end comment...

The WEATHERAmerica Newsletter (c)
A Guide To Weather Happenings Over North America
Get a free subscription to the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, published daily and dealing with severe/unusual weather around the U.S. and Canada. Send a post marked 'SUBSCRIBE' to:

WXAMERICA@aol.com