[CathyRyan]

At 5 pm ast...2100z...the center of major hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 24.1 north...longitude 67.4 west or about 320 miles...515 km...east-northeast of the Turks and Calicos Islands.

Isabel is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr... And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds recently reported by NOAA and air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft remain near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale...and just below category 5 intensity. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km... From the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the greater and Lesser Antilles...the Turks and calicos Islands...and the islands of the Bahamas over the next few days. These dangerous surf conditions will also affect portions of the southeastern u.s. coast during the next several days.
Repeating the 5 pm ast position...24.1 n... 67.4 w. Movement toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 pm ast.
Forecaster Stewart

[Dog]

. The latest gfdl run has continued its westward shift in the forecast track and the 96-120h track is at least 90 nmi west of the 00z track. One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z ukmet... Gfs...gfdl...and canadian models did not analyze the 500 mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends southwestward farther than those four models are indicating. More ridging would suggest that...at least in the short term... Isabel should move farther west than these models are forecasting before the hurricane begins to turn northwestward. Only the nogaps model initialized the 500 mb properly to the Bermuda observation...and the 12z nogaps track is to the left or west of the previous and current forecast tracks. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track and is a little to the west and slightly faster than the model consensus.