Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[TexasCowboy]

"Le Bon Ton Roulle"

Yeah, throw that expression at those Yankees!
They won't have the slightest idea what you're talking about!

[cajungirl]

I love cajun ladies. I am not a cajun, just a louisianian. In the oddest way, cajun women remind me of jewish women I have known. They hold their families close, cook alot, fuss over them alot, butt in when they aren't wanted, are suckers for a person in a bad way and are so warm. They also have great senses of humor and an earthy quality I love. The older they are, the purer cajun they are and they are treasures. You are lucky!!!

[TexasCowboy]

"I swear if a nuclear war was scheduled for wednesday, they would spend Tuesday cooking just in case."

First you gotta make a roux...............

[pgkdan]

My mom is full-blood cajun.

So's mine. Living in NJ of all places.

[cajungirl]

You are right,,the roux first. I gotta go to bed, see you all hurricane watchers tomorrow. Marylanders, just pretend it is a snowstorm, you know what to buy. Lord how I miss the presnowstorm toilet paper/milk trip.

[Stand_Up]

Hi Folks,
We are here in St. Leonard, MD. Our home has a view of the Chesapeake Bay and is about 50 feet above the water line. A better situation then some of our 'beach home' neighbors. Hope none of them stick around if this thing gets close. I am currently planning our Evac. right now and also planning for our return home after the storm. I'd like some input from folks who have experience with this sort of event. Thanks.

[TexasCowboy]

"cajun women remind me of jewish women"

You're exactly right.
I've thought the same thing.

[Gabz]

next update is 5AM eastern, lets see what the morning brings

That's about all any of us can do, isn't it?

Sleep well.

[Howlin]

Make sure you have a valid ID with your current address on it; take your insurance papers, all of them.

[Atchafalaya]

Where does the water go? Models show here in La. that a cat 4 storm coming through the Rigolets (Lake Pontchartrain's outlet to the Gulf), or up the mouth of the river will put Lake Pontchartrain in downtown New Orleans to the tune of 20- 25 feet. Not a fun scenario. Where would Chesapeak Bay go, cause that water is going to move big time if the storm hits just South of the outlet. Ya'll prepare and get out, Godspeed!

[U S Army EOD]

Yep, but just think what the currents are going to be like with the incoming and outgoing waters. I remember Annapolis flooding one year at the square and it was in a small blow. The Bay will act like the Gulf Coast does in a major storm.

I just hope this thing isn't as bad as it looks like its going to be, but there is NOTHING that says it won't so far. To bad you can't wish these things away.

I will never forget how helpless I felt when I got the forecast from the BBC that a Force 12 was coming my way when I was on a 36' sailboat in the Bay of Biscay. We rode it out for 18 hours in 30+ waves that were breaking. I am sure the wind got over 100mph because my wind speed indicator was pegged at 60 knots for 8 hours and it got much worse than that. We turned over on 100 degree rolls three times that night but the boat righted herself.

I have often wondered how many sailors have Begged God just to make it stop for a little while so you can get reorganized. But it doesn't stop. I had horrible feelings of guilt because I figured that I was responsible for killing everyone on the boat.

[Howlin]

And shut off your gas!~

[cajungirl]

Well, that one I can't guess. Except that you can probably go out and hunt and bring home the bacon and cook it up too. That is an interesting combo. Now I really have to go to sleep.

[Stand_Up]

Got them on the check list.
Papers / Documents:
Titles for cars
Banking information
Remove hard drives
Insurance documents
Medical records
Personal Identification

[cajungirl]

I cannot resist. That is a manly list. Women would think of toilet paper, milk, peanut butter, candles, body lotion, a pre storm pedicure, dry shampoo, batteries, water and chocolates. All the ID stuff is like nothing I ever thought of, let alone the hard drive.

[Stand_Up]

LOL
She gets to pick the hotel tomorrow.

[blam]

It looks like the Weather Channel Hurricane report is about to come on.

[Gabz]

I can imagine a lot worse than losing some of the beaches between Bethany and OC. (please not I said between the 2, not the 2 themselves)

The arrogant so and so's that have continued to insist on building their 5,000 sqft $7.5million monstrosities on lots smaller than I had in a town house in Dover have destroyed the ability of those beaches to self replenish themselves after storms.