Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[Mad Dawgg]

"Outter Banks of NC."

I am definitely outter Banxious about Isabel!

Hey Isabel, you biatch, leave my beloved Hatteras alone!

[NautiNurse]

Yes, that is correct.

[PJ-Comix]

The surge can last an hour or two or much longer. Everything inland that is not 30 ft. above sea level will be covered.

SNIFF! Goodbye Virginia Beach!

[cajungirl]

after the storm when you have no power for days is when you cook on the outdoor grill or gas cooker. Down here everything in the freezer goes into gumbo and everyone has parties. A nice big ole roast is appreciated, takes about two days to thaw iin the freezer and voila, another party.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Next week is going to be a nightmare traveling anywhere on DelMarVA, with the NASCAR races in Dover next weekend.

Doncha think the NASCAR bunch might postpone the race if there's a CAT 5 storm headed their way?!

[U S Army EOD]

Lets pray we are all wrong about this one and it just dies out.

[PJ-Comix]

Well, I wasn't planning on cooking, period, during the storm. Peanut butter and jelly sandwiches are nourishment enough, why take a chance with an open flame?

That's why they invented STERNO. It's safe to burn it indoors. Only a few bucks for a sterno stove and a few cans of sterno. Besides it's FUN to cook on a sterno stove during hurricanes. I used to love doing this when I was a kid during hurricanes. Plus Spam actually does taste good in such situations. Cold food will get BORING after a day. Plus the jelly will spoil without refrigeration.

[Mad Dawgg]

"SNIFF! Goodbye Virginia Beach!"

The last time I was at Virgina Beach, Sandbridge, ( a small vacation house area just south of The Strip) was damned near washed away into the sea then and that was in 95!

If they get storm surge there I doubt there will be anything left!

[U S Army EOD]

You people have parties all the time anyway.

[cajungirl]

I plan to fly into baltimore sat am and have tickets for baseball sunday. I think it may not happen, heck!

[TexasCowboy]

I was just concerned, that's all.
I've been through three, and I didn't like any of them. They've all been weaker than this one.
This is a bad one.

[pgkdan]

he was as depressed as I've ever seen him. He couldn't even talk about it.

I know how he felt. I was supposed to be in Franklin the Monday after the storm...only problem was, downtown Franklin was completely under water. For 2 weeks. There was an old church cemetary in western Suffolk VA that gave up all of it's dead. Alll the caskets just floated up out of the ground. I saw a couple bobing around and didn't know what the story was until I saw the news on TV that evening.

[cajungirl]

We can't help it.

[Sam Cree]

I think the thunder and lightning must be on the perimeter, or maybe way up in the sky...I heard it with my own ears, shortly before the thing came in on us.

And it did come in on us, we were in the north eye wall, in the north quadrant. A guy on our block measured wind speeds of 220 mph on his home anemometer, before it blew away. The NHC bought one like his and tested it when they heard about that. They said it wasn't that accurate at those kind of velocities, but agreed that it meant the minimum wind on our block was 175 mph, no one knows how much higher it went.

I'd like to ask a meteorologist about that lightning question and how it associates with a hurricane. I'm sure there must be some association, since I heard it. But I am not aware of sky to ground lightning strikes during the storm. I couldn't see out anyway, had my place really boarded up.

[oceanview]

i'm watching TWC channel now with steve lyons, projected path has indeed slid ever so slightly south for the onshore event, so just south of the VA/NC border rather then along the VA/chesepeake coast. and this is due to the movement as per the 11PM update containing a more westward then northward component, at least for now.

well, time to turn in, next update is 5AM eastern, lets see what the morning brings

[U S Army EOD]

If you take eggs right from the chicken and cover them in lard or butter, they will last for about a month.

[pgkdan]

SNIFF! Goodbye Virginia Beach!

You're right. Except for Mt Trashmore, the highest point in VA Beach is 12 feet above sea level.

[Mad Dawgg]

"I've been through three, and I didn't like any of them."

I was in a very small one back when I was about 12. We were at the Outter Banks in Buxton. The Hurricane just barely made it into the official category so it was a real weak one and that was more than enough for me for a lifetime!

[oceanview]

not on the upper floors of a high rise building.

[cajungirl]

I think they store eggs in warehouses for months. I keep them for months and only once did one go bad. Eggs last a long time!