If it comes up the Chesapeak Bay, it will get REAL interesting all along northern Virginia, Maryland, DC, and all of PA
Posted on 09/14/2003 8:52:00 AM PDT by I_love_weather
Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
Five Day Forecast Map
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif
Do your research on the 1938 hurricane of Sept 21.
Look on the bright side. Just think of all the replacement merchandise that will need to be purchased which should get rid of any and all excess inventory laying around.
Also, the building trades will have guaranteed work for years to repair and rebuild.
It will be good for the economy but I still haven't figured out how George Bush managed to arrange it ;-)
Is the ballooning season over?
BTW, I'm not sure if you're aware, but your balloon was featured on the screen of every Quick Check ATM machine promoting their festival a few months ago.
If it comes up the Chesapeak Bay, it will get REAL interesting all along northern Virginia, Maryland, DC, and all of PA
I'm still thinking that the storm will make landfall in the Carolinas. But with hurricane force winds extending 85 miles out from the eye, it's going to cut a wide swath wherever it hits.
Yes, PNC Bank is our sponsor for that event. They also had calling cards made up. We have a couple of those for souvenirs. LOL. I never did see the ATM thing though.
This hurricane, named after your mother, is likely to be rather memorable. Stay safe and don't take chances!
I think we will be doing that also, and moving a bunch of equipment from our office to our house. Yikes.
I hope your optimistic outlook is the one that happens.
If that happens they'll probably shut down the bay bridge at Annapolis and the bridge-tunnel in the south making for one heck of a messy traffic scenario. The seas will be too high for any of the ferries to run, so the only way off delmarva will be driving north. My advice to anybody who lives there is to be ready to go the moment you know for sure that it is heading your way cause the normal routes to the east will not be open for very long if at all once it hits.
DC and Baltimore rush hours could also be a mess Friday morning from the looks of things, unless they close down for the day. A closure of the bay bridge will probably make that twice as bad cause of all the commuters who use it.
Could be... The one with Dom G?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.