Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[Gabz]

Ackkkkkkkkk...........Spooky is putting it mildly.

[abner]

Today he is out painting the new trailer. We have lots of stuff to do to get ready for ABQ.

[Gabz]

If this thing sets it's sights anywhere near the Chesapeake, DelMarVa or the NJ coast - northern Delaware will get it as well.

[Dog]

I'll be just inside the eastern eyewall...

[CathyRyan]

WTNT23 KNHC 142039

TCMAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
2100Z SUN SEP 14 2003



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 67.4W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 275SW 300NW.

Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 67.4W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 67.0W



FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...185NE 185SE 185SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 67.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT43 KNHC 142039

TCDAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003



The afternoon plethora of recon wind and pressure data indicate that isabel remains barely below category 5 intensity. Air force reserve hurricane hunters measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 150 kt...or 135 kt surface equivalent...in the northeast quadrant of the eyewall...while a NOAA hurricane hunter dropsonde report indicated 171 kt average winds in the lower 150 meters...or 139 surface wind equivalent. Based on this information...Isabel is being maintained at 135 kt. The outflow pattern remains very impressive and has continued to expand.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11. There is no significant change to the previous 2 forecast tracks or reasonings. Recon fix positions have been coming in right on track and the latest 12z nhc model guidance continues to converge about the previous 2 forecast tracks. The latest gfdl run has continued its westward shift in the forecast track and the 96-120h track is at least 90 nmi west of the 00z track. One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z ukmet... Gfs...gfdl...and canadian models did not analyze the 500 mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends southwestward farther than those four models are indicating. More ridging would suggest that...at least in the short term... Isabel should move farther west than these models are forecasting before the hurricane begins to turn northwestward. Only the nogaps model initialized the 500 mb properly to the Bermuda observation...and the 12z nogaps track is to the left or west of the previous and current forecast tracks. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track and is a little to the west and slightly faster than the model consensus. There remains some uncertainty on where the exact landfall of Isabel could occur since the developing central u.s. trough could still deepen and dig more southward than the models are indicating. This could induce a more northward motion and result in landfall farther up the u.s. east coast. But as in the previous several model runs...a large and very strong north-south oriented ridge is forecast to remain east of Isabel and prevent the hurricane from recurving northeastward.

Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected for the next couple of days as Isabel is forecast to move over sightly warmer water and remain in a favorable upper-level outflow pattern. By 96 hours...Isabel is forecast to begin accelerating north or north-northwestward under increasing southerly upper-level flow.

However...the central core of Isabel is expected to remain east of the strongest winds and under 15-25 kt 200 mb flow. This would tend to keep Isabel stronger than what the ships intensity model has been indicating...especially since Isabel will be moving over the warm gulfstream offshore North Carolina just prior to landfall.



Forecaster Stewart



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND

[SauronOfMordor]

Latest from NOAA

[wimpycat]

NC...in the Raleigh area, not near the coast at all.

[oceanview]

they don't even show a bend in the track as it moves through PA and into western NY?

[CathyRyan]

At 5 pm ast...2100z...the center of major hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 24.1 north...longitude 67.4 west or about 320 miles...515 km...east-northeast of the Turks and Calicos Islands.

Isabel is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr... And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds recently reported by NOAA and air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft remain near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale...and just below category 5 intensity. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km... From the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the greater and Lesser Antilles...the Turks and calicos Islands...and the islands of the Bahamas over the next few days. These dangerous surf conditions will also affect portions of the southeastern u.s. coast during the next several days.
Repeating the 5 pm ast position...24.1 n... 67.4 w. Movement toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 pm ast.
Forecaster Stewart

[Dog]

. The latest gfdl run has continued its westward shift in the forecast track and the 96-120h track is at least 90 nmi west of the 00z track. One disturbing bit of information is that the 12z ukmet... Gfs...gfdl...and canadian models did not analyze the 500 mb height and wind fields to the 12z Bermuda upper-air observation of 10 kt northeast wind and 5940 meter height. This observation suggests that the ridge to the north of Bermuda and Isabel extends southwestward farther than those four models are indicating. More ridging would suggest that...at least in the short term... Isabel should move farther west than these models are forecasting before the hurricane begins to turn northwestward. Only the nogaps model initialized the 500 mb properly to the Bermuda observation...and the 12z nogaps track is to the left or west of the previous and current forecast tracks. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track and is a little to the west and slightly faster than the model consensus.

[aristeides]

More ridging would suggest that...at least in the short term... Isabel should move farther west than these models are forecasting before the hurricane begins to turn northwestward.

Does that mean Florida isn't out of the woods yet?

[oceanview]

it would really have to undergo some unexpected event for florida to be hit at this point.

[Dog]

Did you just hear Max Mayfield just now on CNN....he just said there could be a major loss of life from this storm .......he was as serious as I have ever seen him.

[Domestic Church]

" imagine with a strong storm surge going up Chesapeake Bay"

Just north of the Chesapeake here and that's all I'm thinking of! How many feet above sea level is Washington DC?

[okie01]

"Does anyone know the reason their alerts are always in caps? It annoys the heck out of me."

THERE WAS ONLY ONE FONT ON TELETYPE MACHINES AND NO SHIFT KEY.

otherwise, the teletype format would have been all lower case.

I've no idea, though, why the NWS retains the old teletype style for their announcements, now that they're being delivered via the Internet.

[Gabz]

I've no idea, though, why the NWS retains the old teletype style for their announcements, now that they're being delivered via the Internet.

A lot of the old timers are still around would be my guess.

I recognize many of the forecasters names from when I was in radio in the early and mid-80s and those alerts came across the old AP wire teletype machines.

[oceanview]

getting lead coverage on the NYC news now. but as usual, empty comments like "know where you need to evacuate to". that's nice to hear, but doesn't tell me much.

[oceanview]

the population density up that chesepeake corridor is pretty large. if I see this thing shift north, I've got to get out of here.

[Dog]

DC.....you might to think about not sticking around to find out.

I'm over in South Jersey....if they say leave I'm going north.

[Dog]

Mayfield is the best at the National Hurricane Center.....he looked very worried.