It's not any better than anyone else, and that's the rub. His success in '94 was startling because no one had the slightest notion of what was happening, except the people following his polls.
Yet, if you were watching him in '02 and betting on his picks, you'd have lost some big bucks in the races that were tight enough to need pollsters. He picked the Senate races in SD, MN, and CO completely wrong. It's easy to pick Rockefeller in WV, but you earn your money by calling the close ones. Zogby hasn't done that in a while.