Iranian Alert -- September 8, 2003 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD PING LIST

Changing Relationships, Oversupply Threat Rock Oil Market's Foundations

September 08, 2003
Oil & Gas Journal
Bob Tippee

Changing relationships and the threat of oversupply are rocking the oil market's foundations. While the market's supply manager edges toward cooperation with the consuming world, its largest consumer has put the Muslim world on edge with its deepening military quagmire in Iraq.

The supply manager, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, soon must decide whether to continue ceding market share to nonmember producers, speakers said here Monday at the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference.

"Cooperation [between producing and consuming countries] is central to OPEC's thinking and has been for many years," declared Alvaro Silva-Calderon, secretary-general of the exporters' group.

The need for cooperation, he said, comes from the dilemma of producing nations anticipating huge investments to assure the market of adequate supply without knowing precisely how much consumers will need.

A nod toward cooperation came from Calude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency, a group set up by industrialized consuming nations as a counterbalance to OPEC.

"The relationship [between OPEC and IEA] has evolved and very much improved in recent years," Mandil said.

He appealed for stability and sustainability in the oil market, conditions he said depended on "market-driven dynamism," adequate investment, environmental integrity, diversification of producers' economies, and producer-consumer dialog.

OPEC market share paradox

Mandil also noted a paradox: While in the long term OPEC's share of the oil market will grow, recently it has shrunk. The IEA director wondered how long the group would accept this trend.

He also warned against complacency about adequacy of investment in production capacity, saying, "We should not take for granted that these funds will magically appear."

Michael C. Daly, president of BP Gulf States & Pakistan, Abu Dhabi, said erosion of OPEC's share of the oil market might continue through 2010.

"Worldwide consumption growth can be largely accommodated by non-OPEC production growth" in most of that period, he said.

Daly projected increases in output by the end of the decade at 2.5 million b/d each from Russia and the Caspian region, 4.5 million b/d from deepwater projects, and 1.5-2 million b/d from nonconventional sources such as oil sands in Canada and heavy oil from Venezuela.

The 11-12 million b/d of new production from these sources will more than offset a decline in output from traditional non-OPEC sources of 4-6 million b/d, producing a net gain—and competition with OPEC supply—of 5-8 million b/d.

US's policy in Iraq comes under fire

US policy in Iraq came under sharp criticism at the meeting.

Rosemary Hollis, head of the Royal Institute of International Affairs Middle East Program, faulted the administration of US President George W. Bush for failing to plan for the period after the war.

"Iraq could become some sort of vortex, some sort of maelstrom," she warned.

The ingredients for what Hollis called "meltdown" in Iraq are continued lawlessness, growing disillusion, the possibility that the new Governing Council involving Iraqis proves ineffective or is ignored, the prospect that international groups and companies stay away from Iraq, the chance that Iraqi society fragments, and the attraction of Iraqi chaos to al-Qaeda terrorists.

Hollis said the US has four options: "pile in more men and money;" turn to the United Nations for help but retain military control; hand over political, military, and economic management to the UN; and hand over all Iraqi administration as soon as possible.

"At the moment we have a combination of all four," Hollis said.

Youssef M. Ibrahim, a US citizen and managing director of the Strategic Energy Investment Group in Dubai, denounced actions in Iraq of the Bush administration, alleging "confusion over where the war on terrorism ends and where the civilized world—especially Islam—begins."

He said the solution is for the US to "turn away from occupation, cut the number of troops in Iraq by half and replace those withdrawn with UN forces, and give up insistence on military decision-making.

Ibrahim said opinion polls show rapidly falling support for the US in Arab and Muslim countries.

Effects on Iran

Bijan Khajehpour, managing director, Atieh Bahar Consulting of Tehran, said the US presence in Iraq is changing Iranian politics.

An "inward" political orientation dominant since the Islamic revolution of 1979 is giving way to new attention to foreign policy—in part, Khajehpour said, because most Iranians consider the US motive in Iraq to be "regional domination."

A response has been a tendency toward consolidation of a previously fractured Iranian regime, he said.

Although Iran lacks confidence in the ability of the US to manage geopolitical issues and believes the US "politicizes everything about Iran," he expects the Iranian government to seek a formal dialog with the US as it moves to reestablish its position in international relations.

Iran might experience two major shifts as a result of the ouster of Saddam Hussein from Baghdad, Khajehpour said. Najaf, Iraq, might replace Qom, Iran, as the geographic center of Shia Islam, which could weaken theocratic pressures in Iran. And an Iraq friendly to Iran would shift the investment emphasis to oil projects in western Iran, which were considered in jeopardy as long as the Baathists were in power.

Contact Bob Tippee at Bobt@ogjonline.com.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=186425

Is bin Laden the "Mahdi"?

September 08, 2003
World Net Daily
Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin

U.S. military intelligence experts are studying a video clip of Osama bin Laden in which he stands before a dry-erase board with an Arabic phrase written upon it – "awaited enlightened one," reports Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

No one who has seen the video is quite certain of the meaning or the context. But, the Hadith, a collection of Islamic holy writings that supplement the Quran, predicts a messianic figure will arise in the last days of history. This "Mahdi," along with the "Prophet Jesus," will lead the believers to victory over the infidels.

The video raises the question of whether bin Laden sees himself as this Mahdi or if he is expecting another to arise and lead. Either way, the addition of a dimension of Islamic prophecy to the global terror war may seriously complicate matters for planners in the West, G2 Bulletin reports.

According to G2 Bulletin's military sources, some of the detainees currently held at Guantanamo Bay have told interrogators they joined bin Laden's al-Qaida offensive because they think he is the "awaited enlightened one." Others in military intelligence say some of the terrorists crossing the border into Iraq with al-Qaida ties are doing so because of their belief in this Islamic prophecy.

Muslim believers – both Sunni and Shiite – expect the Mahdi to return one day to restore justice to the world. This messenger is not as great as Muhammad, but is a messianic figure found in all branches of Islam.

Interestingly, since the end of 2001, bin Laden has been signing his name "Osama bin Muhammad bin Laden," rather than just Osama bin Laden. This is significant, reports G2 Bulletin, because it gives the al-Qaida leader an apocalyptic dimension. The Hadith says the Mahdi will be recognizable, among other things, by the fact that he carries the name of the Prophet.

"Al Mahdi" is supposed to appear at a time when Muslim believers are severely oppressed in every corner of the world. He will fight the oppressors, unite the Muslims, bring peace and justice to the world, rule over the Arabs, and lead a prayer in Mecca at which Jesus will be present.

While some Islamic analysts have expected bin Laden to declare himself as "caliph," few have speculated about the possibility of the terrorist upping the ante. Operating as he does without a territorial base, bin Ladin could, some suggest, resort to claiming the most powerful title in Islam – the Mahdi.

The Mahdi is one of two positive prophetic figures who, according to Islamic teachings, will appear at the end of time – Prophet Jesus being the other. Together, these two will combat unbelievers and the forces of evil: the antichrist-like Dajjal, or "Deceiver"; the Dabbah, or "Beast"; and the murderous, rapacious hordes of Yajuj wa-Majuj, who appear earlier in the Bible as "Gog and Magog."

The description of the Mahdi that emerges from these Islamic sources can be summarized as follows:

- he will be descended from the Prophet via his daughter Fatima;

- he will have the same name as the Prophet, and his father's name will have been the same as the Prophet's father;

- he will have a distinct forehead and prominent nose;

- he will be extremely generous and altruistic;

- he will arise in Arabia and be compelled by popular acclamation in Mecca to lead the Muslims;

- he will withstand attack by an army from Syria, which will be swallowed up by the desert;

- he will fill the earth with justice and equity;

- he will reign for five, seven or nine years, perhaps as co-ruler with Jesus (after which, an unspecified amount of time later, the last trumpet will sound and the final judgment will ensue).

If bin Ladin – or some other Islamist leader – were to declare himself the Mahdi, should that make a difference to U.S. policy-makers? Yes.

If the claim were believable to the Islamic world, then the U.S. could no longer claim to be fighting terrorism alone. Indeed, it would become a global religious conflict.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=34469

Is bin Laden the "Mahdi"?

September 08, 2003
World Net Daily
Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/977969/posts?page=22#22

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US Links Chinese, N. Korea Aid to Iran

September 08, 2003
Middle East Newsline
MENL

WASHINGTON -- The United States has concluded that China and North Korea have coordinated in their efforts to advance Iran's missile and weapons of mass destruction programs.

U.S. officials said the intelligence community has determined that China and North Korea have cooperated in the production and delivery of components for missile and WMD programs to a range of Middle East clients. They said in many cases China, which last year announced export controls on military and dual-use technologies, has produced the components and exported them through North Korea to avoid U.S. sanctions.

In other cases, the officials said, North Korea markets missile and WMD systems and components to Middle East clients. The systems are then directed through China and Pakistan where they avoid U.S. monitoring of North Korean ports.

The officials said the determination has led to a decision to impose sanctions on Chinese companies found to have be cooperating with North Korea in the fields of missile and WMD. They said the Bush administration, after a lengthy debate within the National Security Council and State Department, has approved the imposition of new sanctions in an effort to demonstrate a tougher policy toward Beijing.

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2003/september/09_09_3.html

Saudi Arabia Asks Iran For Son of bin Laden

September 08, 2003
The Dallas Morning News
Scott Farwell

DALLAS _ Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States said Sunday his government has asked Iran to extradite Osama bin Laden's eldest son for plotting to assassinate members of the Saudi royal family and overthrow the government.

Prince Bandar bin Sultan said Iran has not acted on his country's request for Saad bin Laden and several other suspected terrorists. Iranian officials were not available for comment.

"My government has been requesting that they hand over any members of al-Qaida that we have information are terrorists or are Saudi citizens," said Prince Bandar, a guest of Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones before Sunday's game at Texas Stadium in Irving. "The general consensus is that there are several (senior) members of al-Qaida in Iran."

He said Saudi Arabia believes Saad bin Laden is among a handful of men directing terrorism in the Middle East and around the world, including the May suicide bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that killed 23 people, including nine Americans.

Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States have a common enemy in al-Qaida, Prince Bandar said, because of Osama bin Laden's avowed hatred of Shiites, the predominant branch of Islam in Iran.

"Al-Qaida is more extreme against Shiites," Prince Bandar said. "Iran has no interest in protecting these people, but I think it gets into politics."

Tehran has not rejected Saudi Arabia's request, the prince said.

"They've said they want to finish their investigation first, and then we will share and we will talk about it," he said. "We're handling Iran with sensitivity, but at the same time, we're very serious about extraditing terrorists."

Prince Bandar, who visited former President George H.W. Bush in Maine and later with Vice-President Dick Cheney in Wyoming, said Saudi Arabia will continue to help the United States fight the war on terrorism.

"Al-Qaida is a common enemy," he said. "We will continue to search for the bad guys, and we will continue to cooperate with the U.S. as it searches for bad guys."

Prince Bandar described President Bush as "a man of nails" and said the war on terrorism will eventually be won as long as the United States is willing to lead the fight. He said the upcoming presidential election could give the rest of the world the wrong impression, as candidates criticize Bush's handling of the war on Iraq and other issues.

"Nine thousand miles away, people don't really understand domestic issues," he said. "All they know is this larger fight, this war on terrorism, is the goal of the United States."

Prince Bandar said he developed an affinity for Texas, a love for the Cowboys and a respect for the Bush family in 20 years as the Saudi ambassador to the United States.

He said his loyalty to the Cowboys began in 1970 when he was a first lieutenant in the Saudi Arabian air force stationed at Perrin Air Force Base near Sherman, before it was closed. He has attended the Cowboy's last three Super Bowls, and frequently watches the game in the private suite of Jones.

Prince Bandar is the son of the Saudi defense minister, Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, second in line to the crown.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId=Cp1QTqeicu0fvreLbuKfcsueTqKLoteferu4

Iran Plans Terror Fund Freeze

September 08, 2003
BBC News
BBCi

Iran has announced plans for legislation to let it freeze terrorist-linked assets in line with its United Nations responsibilities.

If - as expected - the bill is ratified by parliament and by the hard-line Guardian Council, it will make Iran a member of the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, which was created in 1999 and came into force in 2002.

That commits Iran to banning the collecting of money intended to support terrorist actings, and to answering calls by other signatories for help with tracking terror funds.

But while Al-Qaeda will be included on its list of banned organisations, a government spokesman said, Hamas - the Palestinian extremist group banned by the European Union over the weekend - will not.

Despite US accusations to the contrary Hamas is not a terrorist group in Iran's view, the Iranian spokesman said.

"Defence against aggressors and occupiers is the legitimate right over any nation, and you cannot label these movements as terrorist movements," said the spokesman, Abdollah Ramazanzadeh.

A weekend meeting of European Union ministers decided to rescind a long-standing distinction made between Hamas's military wing, responsible for suicide bombings costing hundreds of lives, and its political wing, which provides vital health, education and food to thousands of Palestinians.

Exactly how the ban on the group will be implemented is yet to be determined, since charities across Europe contribute to the welfare activities and the EU does not want the flow of aid to be unduly disrupted.

Axis power

Al-Qaeda's presence on Iran's list of groups whose assets are liable to seizure comes as little surprise.

Tehran has repeatedly said it holds al-Qaeda prisoners.

But its long-standing war of words with the US - whose President, George W Bush, labelled it part of an Axis of Evil in early 2002 - means it has resisted calls to hand them over.

It has also refused to identify which supposed al-Qaeda members it is holding, or to entertain suggestions that it might swap the prisoners for having the "Axis of Evil" tag withdrawn.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3091714.stm

Iran Plans Terror Fund Freeze

September 08, 2003
BBC News
BBCi

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/977969/posts?page=26#26

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Looks like we killed three birds with one stone.

" They said the Bush administration, after a lengthy debate within the National Security Council and State Department, has approved the imposition of new sanctions in an effort to demonstrate a tougher policy toward Beijing"

Hurray. That's a start....and why hasn't this been a bigger story?

"...a democratic Iraq could change the whole Arab world. The goal is worth fighting for."

Why the democratic presidential candidates can't see this, is beyond me. (save for Lieberman, maybe)

"Yet this is a place that has had elections, the people of Iran have expressed themselves."

Ms. Rice sounds like Mr. Powell.
How can the people freely express themselves when their choices are made for them? When they are told who they can and can't vote for?
The elections are a farce. Ms. Rice knows better.

How can people express themselves under a MURDEROUS regime?

This wouldn't surprise me, at all. If bin Laden's religious status is elevated, then the Americans have truly joined a holy war, whether or not the president calls this a crusade.

The one who starts the war, sets the terms of the war.

But, as the president has said, victory will come at an hour of our chosing.

pong

"The video raises the question of whether bin Laden sees himself as this Mahdi" "...bin Laden has been signing his name "Osama bin Muhammad bin Laden,"

Proof that he's really gone off the deep end?

"If bin Ladin – or some other Islamist leader – were to declare himself the Mahdi, should that make a difference to U.S. policy-makers?"

NO!

"If the claim were believable to the Islamic world,..."
Then it would make a difference.

"Al Mahdi" is supposed to appear at a time when Muslim believers are severely oppressed ...."

From recent articles, seems like "indifference" or even "disgusted" might be a better word than "oppressed".

The following is a Debka report. Debka is famous for getting some important stories wrong, but on occasion they are way ahead of the rest of the media. We report, you decide. -- DoctorZin

Iran Helped Bin Laden's Lieutenant al-Zawahiri Escape

September 08, 2003
DEBKA File
DEBKA-Net-Weekly

Iran consistently denies ever having sheltered or hidden Osama bin Laden’s top lieutenant and operations ace, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, in the group of al Qaeda leaders present in the country. This assertion is wide of the truth. The Islamic Republic did in fact hide the bespectacled Egyptian medical doctor for close on a year.

He was granted sanctuary, a base of operation and finally provided with a safe getaway route – as discovered by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s most reliable exclusive sources.

Two years after the September 11 terrorist horrors in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania, Zawahiri’s importance as a linchpin and live wire of the al Qaeda network and badly wanted quarry of American special forces and intelligence agents.

His capture is as crucial to the United States global war on terror as the apprehension of Bin Laden himself or Saddam Hussein.

The Iranians looked after him very well. Last month, as the hunt drew near, they helped Zawahiri stay a step ahead of his pursuers and leave the country by a secret tortuous route. DEBKA-Net-Weekly learns that Iranian intelligence agents were personally ordered by Iranian intelligence minister Hojatoleslam Ali Younesi to spirit the wanted terrorist chief, disguised as an Iranian Shiite cleric out of his hiding place and across into Turkey. Travelers from Iran are not required to show passports at the Turkish frontier. An Iranian spy cell buried in Turkey waited for him and conducted him to one of their own safe houses. There he stayed for two or three days before moving on to an unknown destination.

Zawahiri is as intent on keeping al Qaeda’s terror campaign alive as of keeping his head down. Our al Qaeda watchers therefore point to his two most likely destinations: The Ferghana Valley, a lawless territory ruled by Al Qaeda that straddles Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and China; or the wild Pankisi Gorge badland on the Chechen-Georgian border. Iranian intelligence would be able to prepare the absconding terrorist mastermind’s welcome in the latter place through its active channels of communication with Chechen rebels and Saudi Al Qaeda fighters focusing on Chechnya and its environs. At the Pankisi Gorge, Zawahiri would have moved on to his next stop helped by many helping hands in his own movement.

Some made their escape there in late May, when Tehran plotted the flight of some of the al Qaeda perpetrators of the massive bombings in foreigners’ compounds in Riyadh on May 19. Flouting insistent Saudi and American demands to hand the wanted men over, Iranian intelligence gave them transportation and money to smooth their way as far as the Pankisi Gorge.

Reporting from exclusive sources in Tehran, DEBKA-Net-Weekly has learned that, a day or two after Zawahiri left Iran, a tense tug-o’-war took place between Iranian intelligence ministry officers and Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen over control of a group of al Qaeda terrorists. They confronted each other at an airport in the northern Iranian city of Mahabad in Iranian Kurdistan.

Eight senior al Qaeda operatives were known to have been harbored in Tehran as recently as mid-August. Both the United States and Saudi Arabia, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly has reported, have a list of 60 names of Al Qaeda operations officers in the Islamic Republic.

Three of those terrorists were the prize fought over by the two armed Iranian factions.

A large Revolutionary Guards contingent was about to put them on an unmarked plane parked near a side runway with its engines running to extradite them to Saudi Arabia, the start of their deportation to their countries of origin, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Suddenly, the Iranian Guardsmen were surrounded by a larger contingent of Iranian intelligence ministry officers, who demanded custody of all three Al Qaeda men. A second group of officers had meanwhile boarded the plane and ordered the pilot to switch off the engines. At one point in the four-hour standoff, according to our Iranian sources, guns were drawn and threats made. But the officers from the Tehran ministry issued a 15-minute ultimatum to hand the terrorists over or else they would open fire. The Revolutionary Guards backed down.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources report that this was the third time Guards had been frustrated in attempt to send some senior Al Qaeda operatives back to their respective home countries.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence and counter-terrorism sources believe that one of the three terrorists was Saif al-Adel, number three in the Al Qaeda hierarchy and the group’s military commander. Last month, the CIA determined that al Adel, like Zawahiri an Egyptian national, had been in Iranian custody for some three weeks. They have been searching for him for ten years, since the “Black Hawk Down” incident in Somalia in 1993 in which 18 Americans were killed. He is suspected of having commanded a Al Qaeda unit fighting in Mogadishu at the time.

Now, he is named as mastermind of the Riyadh bomb blasts and was on the point of being flown out to Saudi Arabia when the Intelligence minister Younesi had managed to block the extradition while also spotlighting a deep division in the Islamic Republic’s ruling regime.

Shortly after the airport confrontation, we learn that Moshen Razai, chef de bureau of the still powerful former president Hashem Rafsanjani, sent an encrypted report on the incident to members of his faction in the Revolutionary Guards command. He posted it over his private, closed personal website, which DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources were able to access. At the end of the message, Razai wrote: “There are still elements within Iran’s intelligence services who are protecting Al Qaeda adherents and will do anything to prevent their extradition to Arab countries and thwart any progress towards better relations with them.”

Razai is himself a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards. His boss, Rafsanjani, is thought to be the most influential of any Iranian leader among the Guards.

The next move came about several hours later from Imad al-Parsa, a close associate of Rafsanjani and Razai. He summoned his own inner circle, including a large number of senior Revolutionary Guards officers and told them: “The same elements that executed the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Teheran and took its diplomatic staff hostage, thereby foredooming Iran to bad relations with the West for a generation, are at work again.”

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Iran analysts learn from this episode that the attempt to use al Qaeda as an instrument of terror and bargaining chip to gain a respite to develop nuclear weapons has landed Tehran in hot water with regard to the regime’s internal cohesion.

The clerical leaders are now split down the middle.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=562

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Israel Keeping Eyes on Iran's Nuke Program

JERUSALEM Sept. 9 —
Israel has hinted at possible military action to stop what it calls a nightmare scenario nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran but for now is waiting for U.S. diplomatic pressure and closer international scrutiny to do the job.

On Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is investigating suspicions of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons program, demanded full disclosure from Tehran, including acceptance of snap inspections.

Iran insists its nuclear programs are only for generating electricity as oil supplies dwindle. It also has said its equipment was "contaminated" with enriched uranium by a previous owner.

But Israel estimates Iran is just two to three years from having nuclear weapons.

An Israeli government official said Iran does not yet have the right amount of enriched uranium, as well as some other chemicals, needed to build a nuclear bomb, but it has the "know-how" and the ability to develop the materials. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

The delivery method the long-range Shahab-3 missile was successfully tested in July, and experts said Iran is to begin serial production within two years.

If diplomacy fails, Israel, which is about 600 miles to the west of Iran, has made clear a military operation is feasible.

Israeli security officials said Iran's nuclear program is a focus of the army's five-year strategic plan, and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has ordered the Mossad spy service to keep a close eye on the developments in Tehran.

"Any Iranian regime knows of course that Israel has the capability, the wherewithal, to deal with a military threat," said Zalman Shoval, an aide to Sharon. "Hopefully, a military threat can be avoided, nipped in the bud ... before it begins and this is where the United States comes in."

Israel has never confirmed being a nuclear power, but it is widely believed to have nuclear weapons.

In 1981, a fleet of Israeli warplanes flew some 460 miles over Middle Eastern deserts and mountains to Baghdad sticking close to the ground throughout the flight to avoid being picked up by radars.

The warplanes let loose a string of bombs, knocking out Baghdad's nuclear reactors and halting Saddam Hussein's progress in obtaining nuclear weapons.

At the time, the operation was internationally condemned, even by Israel's staunchest ally, the United States.

However, the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on the United States have changed the rules.

U.S. troops have overthrown regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, both on Iran's borders, in less than two years. Tehran is aware that as a member of President Bush's "axis of evil" it could be next in line.

"Iran must cooperate fully. Iran has pledged not to develop nuclear weapons and the entire international community must hold that regime to its commitments," Bush recently said.

Iran apparently believes the attack could come from the United States or Israel and announced it was increasing its defense spending this year.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi recently warned Israel against embarking on an "adventure" similar to the 1981 strike, saying "it will pay dearly" if it does so.

The United States and Israel would most likely choose to carry out pinpoint strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, rather than a large-scale assault if forced to take military measures, said Ephraim Kam, a researcher with Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. Kam released a study last week on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

"A combination of nuclear capabilities and long-range missile capabilities...combined with their position that Israel should not exist is a real threat," Kam said.

Suspicions about Iran's nuclear activities prompted IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei in February to tour Iran's nuclear facilities, including the incomplete plant in Natanz, about 300 miles south of Tehran. Diplomats said he was taken aback by the advanced stage of a project using hundreds of centrifuges to enrich uranium.

Another, larger uranium enrichment facility, is to be completed within the next few years, Western intelligence agencies discovered with the help of Iranian opposition groups.

ElBaradei has said that Iran's nuclear program has been going on far longer than the agency had realized and that it's possible Tehran had bought nuclear components on the "black market."

"I would urge Iran in the coming weeks to show proactive and accelerated cooperation, and to demonstrate full transparency by providing the agency with a complete and accurate declaration of all its nuclear activities," he said Monday in Vienna, Austria.

The United States is pushing the IAEA to report to the U.N. Security Council that Iran is violating nuclear safeguard regulations, opening the door to economic sanctions. Tehran recently signaled that it is open to negotiating terms for snap U.N. inspections of its nuclear sites.

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030909_122.html

I have often mused that at a distant point in the future, the Arab Muslims who were bin Laden sympathizers would one day bemoan their allegiance to bin Laden. It cannot be an enjoyable experience to have the scrutiny of the US examining the entire Middle East.