CIA Believes N. Korea Has 2 'Small' Nukes

CNN ^ | August 28, 2003 | staff report

[Peach]

Not much we can do about it militarily, unfortunately. Thanks, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

[RoughDobermann]

'Tis but a scratch!

[prarie earth]

And Gertz from the Washington Times reported yesterday that China sent a high level delegation to brief N. Korea before the missile talks..scary stuff

[Peach]

Gertz is the best reporter in town and the one to read for the real deal on this matter. The rest of the media are basically worthless.

[prarie earth]

I heard this same story a few months ago, without the CIA theorizing..probably from Gertz!

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Wing attack, Plan R.

[proud2serve]

Well, it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Pyongyang has kept the world in the dark for so long that there's probably more than two out there! That's why S.Korea has kept the US in country for so long. I spent a year in S.Korea and I'll tell you, Pyongyang kept us busy. I say let the ROK military get thier shot at thier northern enemy. Don't think that'll happen, but it would be interesting to watch.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

"I say let the ROK military get thier shot at thier northern enemy. Don't think that'll happen, but it would be interesting to watch. Well, I spent several years there, and I think we should have gone North a long time ago. However, there was no will to do it, even as the North Koreans murdered ROK government officials, villagers, and even American officers supervising the cutting down of a tree that blocked observation of part of the DMZ.

Today, the consequences of "Korean War II" would be predictably disastrous- especially if one of the "small" nukes were targeted on Tokyo, say, and the other was sent here in a cargo container (for example) and detonated in one of our major harbors.

Also, Taiwan would be in jeopardy from China, if we were tied up in Korea.

I hate to be a complete pessimist, but it is very hard for me to see any "Korean War II" scenario that does not lead to at least a regional nuclear war within weeks.

Even a conventional war will kill millions (no hyperbole - I mean MILLIONS).

What ideas do you have to get around that- other than "unleashing the ROK military"???

[prarie earth]

The Chinese can lob one to Seattle or LA already one of their Generals threatened us about it..

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

If you can put satellites in orbit (and remember the huge amount of help the Chinese got with their guidance systems through the corrupt Clinton Administration), you can hit any place on Earth with a ballistic missile.

Intentions are the key, not capabilities. Are the Chinese crazy enough to risk the devastation that would fall on them if they did such a thing?

Probably not. But the North Koreans very well may be. If their leadership is not actually insane, they do a good job of faking it!

[witnesstothefall]

The Chinese also visited Moscow before these talks, as well. It's an ambush, everybody knows it, which is why NK hasn't changed its demands one bit.

A lot of people are gonna die in this war, when not if it breaks out.

[Steel Wolf]

A lot of people are gonna die in this war, when not if it breaks out.

Yes, but probably not from nuclear weapons. Two crude, untested nuclear weapons constructed by the best scientific minds in North Korea (*snicker*) may not be the primary casualty causing devices of this particular fight.

A war on the Korean peninsula would be a bloodbath, no doubt about it. The outcome, however, is not in doubt. They'll put up a great fight for the first two rounds, then collapse. (Surviving the first two rounds probably isn't in the cards for most of the U.S. forces in the initial fight. This victory will come at a steep price, by any reckoning.)

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

"nuclear weapons constructed by the best scientific minds in North Korea (*snicker*)"

I don't know exactly what prompted that parenthetical "snicker", but I spent a lot of time in Korea, and the Koreans do have lots of very good scientists and engineers. The average Korean High School graduate probably knows more math and science than 90% of American college graduates.

I'm not a big fan of the North Korean government, but the people are not stupid (although they are kept uninformed about outside events).

[Steel Wolf]

Comparing North Koreans and South Koreans is pretty deep in apples and oranges territory. I work with some people who have had contact with NK defectors, and their education isn't really anything to brag about. Unless you think that Kim Il Sung actually invented the car and the airplane, and once flew to the moon. I wouldn't have guessed his name, even on multiple choice. The NK's have a hard enough time keeping their T-62 tanks running, much less tinkering with nuclear fission.

South Koreans, on the other hand, could probably make a very good nuclear weapon in little to no time. They are very intelligent and educated, and would be very well funded. North Korea, not so much.

[AmericanInTokyo]

"Why the hell did we not take down KIM JONG-IL AND THE PYONGYANG REGIME FIRST-incredulous" bump!

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

Underestimating your enemy has been the cause of many military disasters. Sun Tzu had much to say on this topic, as did Clausewitz. I should think it is a point that needs no elaboration.

("Varus, where are my legions?")

[proud2serve]

All too true!

[proud2serve]

That's an interesting question, thanks for asking it! Well, diplomacy has never worked with Pyongyang, any meetings have been mudane and uneventful. It is definately hard to infiltrate that country, to invade N.K. now would be disasterous, as you have said. I think I worded my last post a little harshly, what I was getting to with unleashing the ROK military, and I definately did not expand on that like I should have, was to let ROK deal with their threats the way they want to. I don't believe, from living and working with these guys, that they want a full out war either, but that maybe both countries would have a better time (although the outcome may not be what everyone would want) dealing with each other without us hovering around the conference table. I feel that the key to any sort of civil relations should start with bringing families back together, this could sew up some serious tears. I truly can't think of an absolute way of dealing with the situation that would benefit the world as a whole. Perhaps leaving the two governments to deal with each other might be the only way at this point. Of course that's treading dangerous waters also, and the UN should have a key role in watchdogging what the outcome will be. A united Korea? I don't think that would occur with one Communist and one Democratic government. Any thoughts?

[Trident/Delta]

You all seem to miss the relevence of the "Axis of Evil" paradigm. This "triad" has, in my estmation, been working in concert to develop WMD's. It seems that in Iran, there is even a whole town of NK personnel. Why do you think that Kim Sung Il went ballistic when we went into Iraq? There is already evidence that Iran has enriched uranium. But, it is suddenly Korea that is claiming to have WMD's. Do not be fooled into thinking that these were purely indiginous developments. Take a look at the French participation in Iran and NK.

We are only seeing the veritable "tip of the iceberg". We don't have access to accurate intell. What we do get I suspect is deliberate disinformation, designed to make the Axis members think that we are on the wrong track.

Me?, I think war is imminient. We will move on NK AFTER we receive assurances that China won't move on Taiwan. Look to Russia to be the "Hammer of deterence" there. France will piss and moan about American "Colonial" efforts, all the time supporting NK and Iran.

Most of this is obvious, just under the surface. The Polito-critters KNOW this. That is one of the contributory causal actions to the circus that is the electoral cycle this time.

Most that read this don't know me from Adam, but those that have been on FR for more than a month know that I havr been right more than I have been wrong

Semper Fi