Polls Apart: Schwarzenegger isn't as far behind as he seems

Opinion Journal ^ | 08/26/03 | John Fund

[Popof8]

The LA times added 125 hispanic surnames after the initial poll was completed in order to "balance" out their poll numbers. All they did is conduct a fraudulent poll in order to get dramatic results and thus sell more of their newspapers.

[sd-joe]

Well there is a very good reason.

CA is in very deep FISCAL crisis. It needs a FISCAL solution above anything else. We need to select the person who has the most reasonable chance of turning this around (which is a combination of electability and a financial plan).

It is very unlikely that the Gov of the state will have any impact, plus or minus, on the subject of abortion during the next term.

[tallhappy]

But and this is a huge but -- Schwarzenegger was suppsoed to have, or was once reported to have had, a huge lead over Bustamante by now.

His numbers are steady in the low 20's in ALL polls.

Bustamante's numbers have only risen since the dem strategy began to shape up. They will only rise as well.

McClintock's numbers have risen and will rise as Simon's votes go to him.

What is shaping up is that Schwarzenegger is not the shoe-in people expected.

Far from it in fact.

There needs to be serious polling done on whom Schwarzenegger's supporters are and which candidates they would support if he pulled out of the race.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Is it McClintock who is bashing Arnold, or actually the whining, constantly spamming, ever crying RINO segment of his supporters here?

[BunnySlippers]

Yup. Go, Arnold, Go!

[BunnySlippers]

and guys like Arnold S., Bill Clinton, and Jesse Jackson are not.

That's why Arnold S., Newt Gingrich and Ann Colter are supporting Arnold. YES, Go Arnold Go!

[novacation]

I don't have clue what you are talking about.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Read a few of these Arnold threads, and watch how the same few posters constantly exaggerate, yell RINO, and declare how evil Arnold is. Over and over and over and over...

[novacation]

Got it. Republicans had better get it together or we will end up with cruz.

[TheMole]

You are right that Arnold does not seem to electrifying the electorate the way some people thought he would. We need to see some more polls and see what effect Arnold's coming advertising blitz (probably not the best word to use) will have.

I'm not from California but I'm going to put in my $.02 anyway because I've seen a lot of politics. Bustamante is a much stronger candidate than many people think. He's got the votes not just of the leftist hard core, but of everybody whose household could be hit by any cutbacks in the public sector. IOW, not just the government workers, whose unions will do an efficient job of getting them out to vote, but all their relatives too. The more specifics Arnold or Tom McClintock give about what they're going to cut, the more they will crank up this bread-and-butter vote against them. Bustamante has probably got an absolute lock on about 40% of the vote. Anyone beating him out will need serious voter turnout from people who don't generally get to the polls. I'd love to see a hard rock conservative like McClintock get in there, but I personally wouldn't bet a used dumbbell on any of the Republicans left in this race.

[KC_Conspirator]

Hey, I am only responsible for what I say. This poll jockey has yet to say that McClintock should get out of the race. I tend to believe that the LA Times poll, the same organization that employes Robert Scheer as a serious journalist, is biased. I would tend to say that the PPIO poll done recently was more accurate, which still puts Arnold behind.

[AmericaUnited]

Mr. McClintock's problem is that the Terminator's political offensive has barely begun. The Schwarzenegger campaign plans to spend some $2 million every week on TV alone. That's more than Mr. McClintock himself may be able to spend during the entire seven week campaign

McClintock is dead meat. A snowball's chance in hell of winning. He's a typical carreer politician, doing what's best for him, damn all others. How utterly selfish!

[kinghorse]

He should be. Bush is right to keep his distance.

[JohnnyZ]

EXCELLENT article - thanks for posting this! Reasoned critique of the LATimes poll and of Arnold's and Tom's options, with a couple different scenarios explored. Very good.

[tallhappy]

Well stated. I think you make great points.

Problem I've seen in CA is that too many Republicans would rather just assume or pretend they are going to win.

Inevitably they then lose.

[My2Cents]

yes it gets to the heart of the McClintock argument.

Has McClintock argued on the side of cultural/moral issues? Seems to me his emphasis has been exclusively on fiscal issues.

[My2Cents]

I think all the Republicans should observe Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of they fellow Republican." It's bad enough the race is between 3 Republicans vs. the one Democrat. No one wins if we slash each other to ribbons. Let's stay focused on the positives of each, and make our decisions based on that.

[Cinnamon Girl]

The key paragraph, I think:

Mr. McClintock's problem is that the Terminator's political offensive has barely begun. The Schwarzenegger campaign plans to spend some $2 million every week on TV alone. That's more than Mr. McClintock himself may be able to spend during the entire seven week campaign. Also, yesterday Mr. Schwarzenegger began doing talk radio shows--starting with Roger Hedgecock in San Diego and the Los Angeles-based Hugh Hewitt--that until now Mr. McClintock had dominated. If Mr. Schwarzenegger continues this charm offensive and doesn't stumble in media interviews, it will be hard for Mr. McClintock to convince observers that he can catch the movie star turned politician.

Arnold's got the name and he's got the cash. McClintock's got jack for a campaign. Unless the casino tribes start kicking in.

[My2Cents]

I'm pro-life, and I'm willing to vote for Arnold. Reason? Abortion is controlled by the Roe vs. Wade decision, and if that decision were to miraculously be overturned by the SCOTUS, the issue would then be controlled by California, which already has one of the most liberal abortion laws on the books -- a law signed by Governor Ronald Reagan. A candidate's position on abortion will have no impact on California law. Secondly, this is an election about the fiscal and economic condition of California. Oddly enough, the abortion issue is virtually irrelevant in this recall election.

[My2Cents]

Schwarzenegger was suppsoed to have, or was once reported to have had, a huge lead over Bustamante by now.

What do you expect? He's been receiving incoming artillary from the other Republicans in the race. If it comes down to Cruz vs. Arnold, Arnold wins in a walk. The fact the GOP is split is an anchor around every Republican candidate.