[Torie]

Schwarzenegger Says Won't Raise Taxes in Calif.

Yep, sure whatever. The dirty little secret is that taxes are going to be raised, and raised substantially, no matter who is elected governor next year. The only issue is what systemic reforms will be enacted so that the tax raises are temporary, and subject to a sunset clause. Massive reform is needed, which will probably have to be effected by initiative (public employee pensions, privitization, public school reform, repairing the business climate, etc.), while in the interim perhaps leaving the state without a budget, and returning public employees to the minimum wage. That will take time. Who is most reasonably calculated to declare a Jihad on the state legislature and go for the throat?

Ya I am a moderate, and that sounds immoderate, but I do have some skill with numbers. At least I can add and subtract, and know how to read an income statement in a budget.

Folks, the denial of reality by just about everybody in this state of California is simply awesome.

Next year in California is going to generate a LOT of threads. We live in interesting times.

PS: John, thanks for the kind words on the other thread. When we first became friendly, we disagreed about half the time; now it is down to about 25% of the time. I think that is in part because we really communicate with each other in good and honest spirit.

[TBP]

The dirty little secret is that taxes are going to be raised, and raised substantially, no matter who is elected governor next year.

Not if it's Simon or McClintock. But anyone else in the field will raise taxes, or at least try to.

[section9]

I'm not sure that you'll see public employees down at minimum wage, but that pension system that Davis gave the unions as a present for their support will break the State. That has got to go. Arnold was smart to leave himself an out on taxes. A McClintock, were he compelled to raise taxes from one source or another, would have been crucified as he's already signed "the pledge". Still, I don't see Arnold going at Prop 13 or the Income tax.

Again, what do I know? I'm just a shmuck Floridian who thought about moving back to the state of my birth a year ago. Instead, I thought better of it. Florida is a CCW state, "shall issue" is the standard here, with a growth rate that is phenominal, no state income tax, but plenty of receipts to the state.

It helps, of course, to have a unified Republican Party that refuses to form a circular firing squad. We control both houses of the legislature as well as the governor's chair. No Grayouts here.

I was in California last month. Visited my family in Woodland Hills and dropped by a friend of mine who lifes in La Crescenta in the foothills of the San Gabriel National Forest. This was late July, just as CA was on the cusp of the recall. My friend, who I prefer not to name, is a gun owner and plans to move, with his wife and his career, to one of the Free States, where taxes are lower and the Nanny State doesn't breathe down your back as much. He wants to move to Nevada. Taxes are high. It is harder to start a business. He works for L.A. Department of Water and Power. But he's not an engineer. He spends his hours investigating EEOC complaints to keep the lawyers off the Department's back.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[cyncooper]

You're as wrong with your predictions about Schwarzenegger raising taxes as you were about the story surrounding the Baghdad museum.

[Lancey Howard]

but I do have some skill with numbers.

How about the number '6'?
That is how many Republican votes are needed in the Assembly to allow the scumbags to raise taxes.

[Princeliberty]

But anyone with an adviser talking about repealing
Proposition 13 is sounding like someone who
wants to yank up taxes big time to avoid any
real reforms.

[Common Tator]

Yep, sure whatever. The dirty little secret is that taxes are going to be raised, and raised substantially, no matter who is elected governor next year. The only issue is what systemic reforms will be enacted so that the tax raises are temporary, and subject to a sunset clause. Massive reform is needed, which will probably have to be effected by initiative (public employee pensions, privitization, public school reform, repairing the business climate, etc.), while in the interim perhaps leaving the state without a budget, and returning public employees to the minimum wage. That will take time. Who is most reasonably calculated to declare a Jihad on the state legislature and go for the throat?

I started reading your post without noting who wrote it. All I could think of is where did this person with a real brain come from? Of course it was you.

What blew my mind yesterday was the Field Poll results on turn out multipliers. As you know the key to poll accuracy lies in the turn out multipliers. Field says as of now this special election will have 45 percent Democratic, 40 percent Republican and 15 percent Independent voter turn out. That is why Arnie dropped in the field poll. If those turn out numbers are true, then the USA today poll is worthless. Pollsters have been using the 2000 turn out multipliers based on the assumption that the 2002 turn out for the governors race was an aberration. The 2000 turn out was nearly 30 percent independent. Field polled the groups for likely turn out.

But if 2002 turn out was not just a one time thing..... and the centrist turn out is once again just 15 percent.... This could be a surprising election.

You can read my take as of late last night by clicking here.

[B Knotts]

I think you're reading the situation correctly. It would be awfully hard to stave off tax increases with the situation California is in. If it were to be done, it would require voter approval to allow the level of restructuring necessary.

At minimum, I think it can be said that Schwarzenegger is blowing smoke with his contention that he can balance the budget with no tax increases, with education "off the table."

There have to be some serious cuts...more like a gutting.

[crasher]

There is one other possibility. With a Republican Governor, maybe the feds would give CA a loan to cover the amount that taxes would otherwise have to be raised to cover a deficit under the leanest possible budget.