[DoctorZIn]

Yes, but your anaylsis assume a collapse. A collapse will force major changes and ignite civil unrest. If all this is true, we better hold onto our hats, its about to get stormy.

[AdmSmith]

Read this post again about their Santa wishes:

Iran needs $17b of investments next year

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/948296/posts?page=11#11

Furthermore the oil price will most probably be in the 18 - 20 USD/barrel bracket the first 6 month next year. this will put pressure on Russia, Libya and Iran.