Iranian Alert -- August 6, 2003 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

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Join Us at the Iranian Alert -- August 6, 2003 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

Live Thread Ping List | 8.6.2003 | DoctorZin

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Once again, another must read by Amir Taheri, -- DoctorZin

Amir Taheri: Engaging Iran now will avoid future crises

06-08-2003
Gulf News Online

When U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair met in Washington last month, Iran featured prominently in their attention during a tour d'horizon of what is still a dangerous part of the world.

No one quite knows how long it will take before Iraq has a working government based on pluralism and committed to peace. But one thing is certain: with Saddam Hussain gone, Iraq has a chance to build a new life fit for its people while developing normal relations with the rest of the world.

Iran, however, is in a state of uncertainty.

On the one hand there are powerful domestic forces that could lead Iran onto a new path of reconstruction and peaceful co-existence with the outside world.

On the other, there are other forces, their power augmented by their control of the state apparatus and much of the oil revenue, that still pursue the messianic dream of exporting their revolution and conquering the whole world for their pseudo-ideology.

The question for the outside world is: how to deal with this dual reality?

With Iraq liberated, the policy of "double containment" no longer makes sense. Containing Iran is no longer enough.

Iran must be engaged, either diplomatically or with a mixture of diplomacy and military force in order to alter its current trajectory. For if that trajectory is not altered it is bound, sooner or later, to lead into open conflict between Iran and the United States and its allies.

The idea that Iran could be isolated is a non-starter. Iran has 16 neighbours, the largest number for any single country with the exception of Russia.

Location

Iran is located between the Gulf and the Caspian Basin that, together, contain some 70 per cent of the world's known oil reserves and almost 60 per cent of its natural gas. On each side, only one country separates Iran from the continents of Europe and Africa and Asia proper. Iran is also one of the world's 20 largest and most populous countries.

Nearly half of mankind are Iran's immediate or near neighbours. Iran's neighbourhood includes five nuclear powers. In that neighbourhood live many of the world's great ethnic and cultural families, the Han, the Altaic, the Indo-Dravidian, the Arab, the Turk and the Slav among others. Directly or indirectly, Iran is involved in more than half of the 22 "current active conflicts" enumerated by the International Crisis Group.

Iran is significant for another reason. Along with Turkey and Egypt it has had a leadership role in the Islamic world for centuries.

With Turkey now looking to Europe and Egypt unable to forge a synthesis of its Islamic heritage and its modernising ambitions, Iran is left as the only major country where Islam could still develop in both positive and negative ways.

For the past quarter of a century the Iranian experiment has been a model for many Muslims and a warning to many more. That situation is likely to continue as Iran enters a new phase in its political development.

Now that we know that Iran cannot be ignored or isolated the question is: what to do about it?

One answer is: do nothing.

This would mean letting the Iranians fight it out among themselves until they can create a coherent government capable of developing a national strategy. Here the danger is that the "exporters of the revolution", who control the nation's wealth and the coercive forces of the state, might eliminate their opponents and establish a tyranny akin to that of North Korea or of Iraq under Saddam Hussain.

That would mean letting a dangerous regime acquire nuclear weapons and build up its arsenal of other weapons of mass destruction, if only for blackmailing real or imagined foes in the region and beyond.

Another answer is to seek a détente-like deal with the hard-line faction. That would defuse the situation, at least for a while, and would also prolong the life of a regime that is now in deep, and possibly terminal, crisis.

Yet another answer is to engage the hard line faction into negotiations aimed at addressing its grievances, allaying its fears, and ultimately persuading it to accept a set of changes in its behaviour. But that could be seen by the pro-democracy movement as an act of betrayal and might well be construed by the hard line Khomeinists as a sign of weakness on the part of the major democracies.

According to our sources, Britain favours engaging Tehran in a process of negotiations.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has visited Tehran four times in just over a year and believes that the hard line mullahs understand the language of Realpolitik and that, if assured that the West is not trying to overthrow them, will play along.

Keeping the options open

There are also signs that the Bush administration, while keeping the option of using force open, may be tilting towards the British position. Mounting domestic opposition to American involvement in Iraq may well be one factor in persuading Bush not to turn the heat on Iran before the next U.S. presidential election.

The British analysis may be correct as far as short-term considerations are concerned.

The Iranian regime is in deep trouble and would agree to a set of largely cosmetic changes in order to ease the pressure. In the medium and long-term, however, the British analysis misses the central point: the present Iranian system is an anomaly and will have to change. We are only at the start of what could become known as the great Iranian crisis.

The writer, Iranian author and journalist, is based in Europe. He can be contacted at amirtaheri@benadorassociates.com

Once again, another must read by Amir Taheri, -- DoctorZin

Amir Taheri: Engaging Iran now will avoid future crises
06-08-2003
Gulf News Online

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/958991/posts?page=4#4

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Pakistan denies aiding Iran nuclear weapons drive

World News
Aug 5, 2003

ISLAMABAD - Pakistan on Tuesday denied a U.S. newspaper report this week which said it shared expertise with Iran that could help Tehran develop nuclear weapons.

A statement from the Foreign Ministry did not name the report, but the Los Angeles Times said on Monday Iran appeared to be in the late stages of building a nuclear bomb and had sought help from scientists from countries including Pakistan.

The story cited a confidential report by the French government in May it said concluded Iran was "surprisingly close" to having enriched uranium or plutonium for a bomb.

Iran has consistently denied it has plans to build nuclear weapons and has said its program is for peaceful civilian use.

The story also quoted a Middle Eastern intelligence official as saying Pakistan's role in helping Iran develop a nuclear programme was "bigger from the beginning than we thought."

"The spokesman termed it (the report) as completely false, irresponsible and obviously motivated," the ministry statement said.

"Pakistan's commitments, affirmed at the highest level, that it would not export any sensitive technologies to third countries remains unquestionable.

"Pakistan has a strong export control regime in place. Pakistan's record in this regard is impeccable," it added.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is a key ally in the U.S.-led war on terror, but the country is under pressure from Washington amid allegations it helped North Korea make materials needed for a nuclear arms project in return for missile parts.

In March, the United States imposed commercial sanctions on Khan Research Laboratories, once headed by revered Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, because it arranged a transfer of North Korean missiles to Pakistan.

Pakistan has also strongly denied reports it helped Pyongyang develop a nuclear arms programme.

Tuesday's statement said Khan, dubbed the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, had "never set foot in Iran or ever met with any Iranian nuclear experts".

The L.A. Times had said Khan travelled "frequently" to Iran to share his nuclear expertise.

"Such reports appear part of a malicious campaign against Pakistan's consistent and established record of safeguarding its sensitive nuclear technology and ensuring that this technology was not transferred by any organisation or individual to any other country," the Pakistan foreign ministry said.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_1589.shtml

Pakistan denies aiding Iran nuclear weapons drive

World News
Aug 5, 2003

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/958991/posts?page=6#6

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Looks like Rockfish doesn't like us too much

North Korea-Iran in Arms Deal

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200308/kt2003080615060211990.htm

TOKYO (Yonhap) -- North Korea and Iran have been in talks to discuss the joint development of nuclear warheads, the Sankei Shimbun reported yesterday.
Quoting military sources, the Japanese daily also said the North is pushing ahead with a plan to export its Taepodong 2 long-range ballistic missiles to Iran.

The two countries have been discussing the plans for about one year and are expected to reach an agreement in mid-October
........

Safavi: IRGC, Basij providing strong defense and security for nation .

Orumiyeh, West Azarbaijan Prov, Aug 5, IRNA -- Commander of the
Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IGRC) Major-General Rahim Safavi
in this northwestern city Tuesday said that the IGRC and Basij
were bulwarks of defense and security for the country and its people.
He made the remark at a gathering of IGRC forces and Basijis
(volunteer forces) during which he described the attack and occupation
of Iraq by American forces as a move already doomed to failure.
Refuting the US Administration's claim that it went to war with
Iraq to overthrow an "evil regime" and establish a government which
could serve as an example to regional countries, he said that the
invasion was in fact another consummated attempt to intervene in the
internal affairs of regional states.
However, he said US officials are now facing serious and mounting
problems in Iraq while Britain, the US' most loyal ally in the war, is
now beginning to remove its forces from the country after realizing
it has failed in its goals.
The commander further remarked that America will never be able to
tolerate countries which maintain free and independent stances, and
confidently said that the vigilant Iranian nation and its officials
will face and defuse any kind of plot.
He also stressed the need to increase Basij participation in the
nation's cultural affairs as well as in national reconstruction
projects.

http://www.irna.ir/en/tnews/030806142735.etn02.shtml

Shahroudi: Iran will not succumb to bullying on nuclear protocol

http://www.irna.ir/en/tnews/030806005802.etn09.shtml

Tehran, Aug 5, IRNA -- Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi
Shahroudi lashed out Monday at those, he said, had taken up a servile
tone in the face of calls on Tehran to sign an additional nuclear
protocol and said that Iran would not submit to force.
"The weakness shown by those who boast of being intellectual and
politician indicates their lack of faith and servitude to Ameri....

Special Dispatch - Iran/Reform in the Arab and Muslim World
August 6, 2003
No. 548

To view this Special Dispatch in HTML format, please visit:
http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD54803

Ayatollah Khomeini's Grandson: 'Iran Needs Democracy and Separation of Religion and State;' 'The Iranian Regime Is the World's Worst Dictatorship'

The London-based Arabic-language daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reported that Hussein Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of Iran's Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini, had left his place of residence in Iran's holy Shi'ite city of Qom to relocate to Iraq's holy Shi'ite city of Najaf, which is traditionally the seat of the highest Shi'ite religious authority, as a sign of protest against Iran's regime.(1) Hussein Khomeini, 46, called the Iranian regime "the world's worst dictatorship," and stated that the regime's heads, Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei and former president and current Expediency Council head Hashemi Rafsanjani "and everyone who has taken over the regime" since his grandfather's time "was exploiting his [Ayatollah Khomeini's] name, the name of Islam, and the religious regime in order to continue their tyrannical rule." Hussein Khomeini called for the separation of religion and state in Iran and expressed his expectation that the movement opposing the Iranian!
regime would gather momentum and turn into a popular movement.

The newspaper also noted that members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards were now searching for Hussein Khomeini in Iraq because Iranian authorities fear that he could become a symbol of resistance to the Iranian regime.(2) The following are excerpts from Al-Sharq Al-Awsat's report:

From Qom to Najaf

According to the Al-Sharq Al-Awsat report, tensions between Hussein Khomeini and Iran's religious leadership increased in recent years after Hussein Khomeini publicly lent his support to the students and reformists and issued statements that the Fatwas issued by the Judiciary against the Iranian students, intellectuals, and writers opposed to the regime were illegitimate.(3)

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat added that Hussein Khomeini's move to Najaf, which was done without the knowledge of the Iranian authorities, sparked suspicion among Iran's conservatives, who are aware of the extent of Khomeini's influence in the religious seminary in Najaf and among the religious youth, as well as within reformist circles. According to a source close to the reformists, the Iranian authorities fear that Hussein Khomeini will become a new symbol of the religious opposition to the regime in Iran.(4)

According to the paper, from his temporary residence in a region of Iraq, prior to his move to Najaf, Hussein Khomeini stressed that Iran needed "a democratic regime that does not make use of religion as a means of oppressing the people and strangling society." He noted further that it was necessary "to separate the religion from the state," and "to put an end to the tyrannical rule of religion that was reminiscent of the rule of the Church during Europe's Dark Ages," and that "All those who took control of the centers of power of Iran after my grandfather are exploiting his name, the name of Islam, and the religious regime so as to continue their tyrannical rule."

'The World's Worst Dictatorship'

The paper also noted that Hussein Khomeini spoke of the dissatisfaction and the anger pervading the Iranian street, and that he considered the current religious regime in Iran to be "the world's worst dictatorship." According to the paper, Khomeini believes that Iran's escalating protest movement "would in not too long develop into a popular revolution, and soon we would see the great event [i.e. regime change]."(5)

Khomeini, who has strong ties to some Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders and members of the Iranian parliament and the Iranian security apparatuses, emphasized that he was continuing his struggle in order to bring about a change in the situation in Iran. He stated: "Freedom is more important than bread. If the Americans will provide it, let them come - but the Iranian people is capable of determining the fate of the current regime by itself... What we need is international sympathy and understanding for our legitimate needs."(6)

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat was informed that a squad commanded by a member of the intelligence service of the Revolutionary Guards known as "Assadi" had entered Iraqi territory the previous week in search of Hussein Khomeini, in order to assassinate him. An Iranian reformist source told the paper that Revolutionary Guards Deputy Commander Mohammed Baqir Dhu Al-Qadr had, in a meeting with top officials in the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence service, promised to put an end to the Khomeini phenomenon epitomized by Hussein Khomeini, just as his uncle, Ahmad Khomeini, was assassinated when he stopped supporting the regime and publicized his opposition to it.(7)

Najaf Versus Qom: Two Cities Holy to Shi'ites

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat noted that Hussein Khomeini's move to Najaf was considered a "painful blow" to the Iranian regime's years-long attempt to make Qom the capital of the Marja'iya,(8) as well as "a clear provocation to Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei." The paper added that since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, the idea of reviving Najaf's religious seminaries, opening new schools and rejuvenating the old ones, as well as the move by leading Qom clerics to Najaf, had attracted the attention of leading Shi'ite authorities who are opposed to the regime in Iran, as well as the attention of figures from the circle of Qom's religious seminary, which under the rule of Supreme Leader Khamenei is not independent.(9)

According to the paper, at the regime's order Iranian security authorities blocked sources of funding to the country's independent ayatollahs as long as they refused to accept Khamenei's authority, to consider him the Supreme Leader, and see him as the representative of the Master of Time.(10)

Four leading ayatollahs refuse to obey Khamenei: Ayatollah Hussein 'Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Sadiq Ruhani, Ayatollah Yousuf Sani'i, and Ayatollah Muhaqiq Damad.(11)

The paper further reported that Hussein Khomeini spoke out against attempts by Sheikh 'Ali Ha'iri, who is close to the Iranian regime,(12) to impose the authority of Khamenei's control on the people of Najaf. Ha'iri, who is close to Maqtada Al-Sadr in Iraq, recently went to Iraq accompanied by personnel from the intelligence service of Iran's Revolutionary Guards for this purpose.(13)

According to a source close to Hussein Khomeini, Khomeini considers Ayatollah 'Ali Sistani, Ayatollah Saeed Al-Hakim, and Ayatollah Fayadhi the "true Marja'iya" - that is, the true Shi'ite religious authorities.(14)

Endnotes:
(1) The paper noted that while Hussein Khomeini is not a leading cleric, he does have special status and influence in Iranian society.
(2) Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), July 29, 2003, August 4, 2003.
(3) Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), August 4, 2003. The paper noted that Hussein Khomeini's relationship with Iran's regime had been tense since the death of his grandfather Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, and that this tension had become public following the death of his uncle (and Ayatollah Khomeini's son) Ahmad Khomeini and following the disclosure that Ahmad Khomeini had been assassinated by Iranian intelligence agents. During his last years, Ahmad Khomeini, under the influence of his nephew Hussein, had begun to speak out against the policy of the ruling group in Tehran, i.e. former president and current Expediency Council head Hashemi Rafsanjani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and accuse them of prolonging the war with Iraq in order to strengthen their rule and of removing Ayatollah Hussein 'Ali Montazeri from the position of designated heir of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini.
(4) Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), August 4, 2003.
(5) Ibid.
(6) Ibid.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Marja'iya - the source of Shi'ite religious authority, whose conduct must be imitated.
(9) Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), July 27, 2003.
(10) i.e. the Hidden Imam, meaning the religious leader of the generation.
(11) Ibid.
(12) The brother-in-law of previous Iranian intelligence minister Mohammad Mohamdi Rish'hari, close to Supreme Leader Khamenei and today serving in his office and son-in-law of Iran's Experts Council head Ayatollah 'Ali Mashkini.
(13) Sheikh Al-Baydha'i and Sheikh Al-Ashkuri, of Khamenei's office and his helpers in this. Ibid.
(14) Ibid.

What a coup this would be for Bush if he could somehow assist the students in a way that would lead to the Fall of the Second Axis of Evil State. I'm sure we're actively working behind the scenes giving what support we can.

Seems Khomeini's family has no credit among Iranians these days. His grandpa was responsible for massacres, crimes and was a blood drinker.
Now he wants freedom? What a BS. Who believes another Mullah?

Iran Says Talks on Nuclear Inspections Positive

Wed August 6, 2003 05:59 AM ET

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's official news agency said on Wednesday Tehran held "positive and constructive" talks with the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog on snap inspections of nuclear facilities Washington suspects may be used to make atomic bombs.
An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team arrived in Tehran on Monday to discuss the possibility of Iran signing an Additional Protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which would allow inspectors to carry out more intrusive, no-notice checks of nuclear sites.

The talks were due to continue on Wednesday, the official IRNA news agency said. "Both sides termed the talks 'positive and constructive'," it reported.

Iran's signature of the Additional Protocol is seen as crucial to allaying international concerns that Tehran's nuclear ambitions may go beyond its stated aim of generating electricity from nuclear power.

While Washington has led the chorus of international concern about Iran's nuclear program, the European Union, Russia and Japan have also urged the Islamic Republic to provide greater assurances that it will not be diverted into military uses.

In a June report, the IAEA criticized Tehran for failing to report a number of activities related to its nuclear program.

Iran has pledged to cooperate fully with the IAEA which is due to release another report on Iran in September.

While pro-reform government officials and lawmakers argue that signing the protocol would ease international pressure on Iran, hard-liners say it would give carte blanche to Iran's enemies to spy on the country.

"The notion that accepting the Additional Protocol will exculpate Iran is an infantile and amateurish supposition," Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper told the ISNA student news agency on Tuesday.

"The only thing which can foil the plot hatched jointly by America, the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency against Islamic Iran is our withdrawal from the NPT."

Officials from Iran's pro-reform government have said Tehran has no intention of pulling out of the NPT.

http://asia.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3228343

Thanks for the pings

Two demonstrators found guilty of "war on God", face serious penalties

5 August AFP

Two people arrested during recent demonstrations in Shiraz, southern Iran, have been found guilty of "warring against God", which carries heavy penalties including death, a press report said.

The conservative daily Abrar quoted local judiciary head Hossein Ali Amiri as disclosing the verdict of the court but not the sentence.A lawyer told AFP that under the Islamic republic's laws, "warring against God" is punishable by death, amputation or exile.

Amiri said the cases of the two men would be transferred to the supreme court, Iran's highest judicial authority. He said a total of 32 demonstrators were sentenced for damaging Shiraz town hall, and post office and telecommunications buildings.

"The majority were layabouts, just taking advantage of the situation," he told the newspaper, without "sensible demands" and no "justification for their behaviour". "They didn't have a ringleader and they weren't organised, but influenced by foreign satellite channels working for the counter-revolution," Abrar quoted the official as saying.

Amiri added that the judiciary released 43 others who were arrested during the demonstrations.

In June, police detained 4,000 following 10 days of violent anti-regime demonstrations in Tehran and provincial cities. Last month, tens of thousands jammed the streets around Tehran University to defy a ban on gatherings to mark the fourth anniversary of bloody pro-democracy student riots.

source http://www.iranexpert.com/2003/warongod5august.htm

Comment: To be accused of "war on God" implies that there is a God. How do you prove that in court?

Sorry for that comment this thread is not about religion.

Censorship, Tehran-Style

August 06, 2003
New York Post
Opinion Editorials

The world got a rare glimpse of the brutality of Iran's Islamic fundamentalists with the recent savage murder by Iranian security agents of Canadian journalist Zhara Kazemi.

In June, the 54-year-old photographer of Iranian descent was arrested and beaten after photographing the regime's nightmarish Evin prison during student-led anti-government protests.

Four days later, she was taken in a coma from an unknown prison to the Ministry of Intelligence and then to a hospital, where she died.

Her relatives say that after her initial roughing up, she was subjected to beatings and torture. Though the judiciary claimed she died of a stroke, the country's vice president later admitted that she had been beaten to death.

Iran's elected, supposedly moderate, government is often at odds with the hard-line mullahs who control the courts, the Council of Guardians, the Revolutionary Guard and other key security forces.

But it was the "moderates" who authorized a hasty burial in Iran, against the wishes of her family and before any outsiders could examine the body.

Kazemi's death coincided with a vicious crackdown against democracy activists, reporters and student leaders. At least 15 other journalists are being held at the jail where she was brutalized, and nine more are imprisoned elsewhere for negative reporting about the regime.

It's not surprising that a regime that sponsors terrorists in Lebanon and suicide bombers in Israel is willing to murder journalists.

But it's something folks here and in Europe who are pushing for warmer ties to Tehran would do well to remember.

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/editorial/2492.htm

Khatami Voices Concern Over Future of Islamic Regime, Slams ‘Fascism’

August 06, 2003
Arab News
Agence France Presse - Reuters

TEHRAN -— President Mohammad Khatami has voiced concern over the spread of “fascism” in Iran, in a strongly-worded attack against detractors of his reformist policies, newspapers reported yesterday. “The goal of the Islamic revolution is not to establish a fascist vision in society in the name of religion and the (1979 Islamic) revolution,” Khatami told a joint meeting of the Cabinet and Parliament.

“Nor is it to attack and put pressure on those who do not share this vision,” the Iranian president said. “The disaster today is that we are trying, through a fascist vision of religion and the revolution, to push out the competitor” from the political arena, he said.

According to Khatami, “the only way to defend Islam, independence and freedom is to twin religion with liberty,” adding that Iranian society was becoming “bipolar and that is a big danger”. Khatami charged that two groups were fighting his policies.

“The first is made of those who compare reform to counterrevolution,” the moderate cleric said. He pointed to ultraconservatives who he said charge that “presidential draft resolutions were cooked up by the United States and their valets inside the country”.

Khatami identified the second group among his detractors as “those who think that reform is the suppression of religion”.

Meanwhile, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged the judiciary yesterday to show leniency to dozens of students who were arrested during pro-democracy protests in June and July, the official IRNA news agency said.

The announcement follows growing calls by student bodies, reformist politicians and human rights groups for the release of students arrested during street protests which took place in several Iranian cities in the past two months.

Judiciary officials said in July that 4,000 people were arrested during the protests although more than half of them were quickly released.

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4&section=0&article=29856&d=6&m=8&y=2003