Is Iran a major threat?
Gulf News Research Centre | By Dr Marwan Asmar | 28-07-2003
Many people in the Middle East wonder about the fuss over Iran's nuclear programme, which is for peaceful purposes, when it is known Israel is a major nuclear power. As party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, Iran signed in 1968 when the NPT came into existence, Iran has repeatedly stated said it is compelled to develop a nuclear programme for peaceful purposes only.
It is Israel that introduced nuclear weapons into the Middle East. As early as 1948, it began scientific research with the help of France to acquire a nuclear capability. With a suggested capability of between 200 and 400 thermonuclear and nuclear weapons, Israel today stands as one of the leading nuclear powers in terms of an offensive military arsenal.
Israel has always been highly secretive about its nuclear weapons. In fact, the first to blow the whistle on Israel's nuclear industry was Mordechi Vannu who was subsequently abducted from Rome by Mossad agents, illegally brought back to Israel and jailed in 1987 for 17 years for revealing pictures of the Dimona reactor in Israel, and remains there today.
However, Israel's nuclear weapons have always been an open secret. This ambiguity stands as the essence of Israel's nuclear policy. Israeli officials are bound not to reveal or acknowledge anything about its nuclear activity, even if they and the world know otherwise.
Indeed, a report by the eminent Federation of American Scientists suggested in 2001 that Israel had enough plutonium for 200 nuclear weapons. The report stated the number was based on new satellite photographs.
Israel's nuclear programme started in 1965 when the Dimona reactor became fully operational. While figures vary from one study to another, a detailed report by Warner D. Farr of the U.S. army, documents the history of Israel's nuclear bomb-making. He reports that by 1967, Israel had at least two bombs and certainly could have had more.
Avner Cohen, an Israeli writer and expert on the Israeli nuclear bomb who has written a book on the subject and now lives in the U.S., also suggests Israel had a "deliverable nuclear capability in the 1967 war". In an appendix at the end of his report, Farr provides a chronology of dates suggesting the upward swing of Israel's nuclear arsenal.
Based on documentary evidence, he says in 1976, Israel had between 10 and 20 nuclear weapons, increasing to 200 bombs in 1980. A lesser figure of 100 was suggested in 1985 and a number of 200 was put out in 1992. However, in 1997, it was suggested Israel had 400 deliverable thermonuclear and nuclear weapons.
Israeli policy-makers say the nuclear bomb was a matter of survival for Israel, being encircled by what it perceives as hostile Arab states. Such a view was held even in the era of the peace process in the 1990s and more so today.
However, many Arab states reject this and have repeatedly called for a check on the arms race in the Middle East as a way to prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Israel appears to see any move on the nuclear front, even if it's for peaceful means such as generating electricity, as a threat to its security and had previously gone to great lengths to maintain itself as the sole power in the region with a nuclear capability. Its bombing of the Osiraq reactor in Iraq in 1981 suggested that it is ready to maintain a nuclear monopoly through the use of force.
And what is being played out today in international circles by Israeli politicians shows their offensive posture could be happen again against Iran if Tehran does not accept more on-the-spot inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
This is a view demanded by the U.S., Europe and Israel which openly says Iran is using the NPT to develop its own nuclear weapons.
This is because, under NPT rules, nuclear material can be imported into the country for peaceful purposes like electricity generation. However, the U.S. is pressing Iran to sign an additional protocol or addendum to the NPT which will allow the IAEA to make unnannouced, on-the-spot inspections, which are deemed to be more searching than the regular inspections.
So far, Iran has refused, deeming the present agreement adequate, thus causing them additional pressure from the West and Israel.
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