Very well put (for a squid). ;-)
The problem I see with all this idle speculation is that people begin to get way too much emotional capital invested in this story, and when the truth comes out, they find it hard to accept it.
The best example of this is still the Rosenbergs, there are people who have so much emotional attachment to the case that they refuse to believe all the evidence against them. Another one would be the Danielle van Dam/David Westerfield case.