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EU to review ties with Iran

BBC
By Patrick Bartlett
Jul 22, 2003

The European Union has said it will review its ties with Iran in September amid increasing concern about the country's nuclear programme.

The declaration in effect sets a deadline for Iran to co-operate with United Nations nuclear inspectors or risk losing the promise of closer economic ties with Europe.

Earlier the Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, on a visit to Brussels, described Iran's nuclear programme as a threat to the stability of the entire world.

Like the United States, Israel is convinced that Iran is using an atomic energy programme as cover to allow it secretly to develop nuclear weapons.

The EU has been more circumspect, but insists Iran should remove all doubt by allowing full-scale inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In a statement, EU foreign ministers said there was increasing concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions. They warned that Iran's hopes of closer economic relations with Europe depended on it co-operating to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Four-point deal

Iran, however, insists its nuclear programme is purely civilian. But it is now under intense pressure to convince the EU that is indeed the case.

In its statement, the EU said a promised trade and co-operation agreement was dependent on Iran's attitude to four key issues: nuclear proliferation, human rights, terrorism and the Middle East peace process.

The Israeli foreign minister used his visit to Brussels to urge the EU to take a tougher line with Tehran.

He expressed fears that a new long-range Iranian missile could reach Europe and parts of southern Russia as well as Israel.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_1310.shtml

Apocalypse Soon?

July 22, 2003
The Economist Global Agenda
The Economist

Amid reports that North Korea may have a second plutonium plant, the IAEA says it presents the world’s gravest nuclear-weapons threat. But Iran is running it a close second. Can a dangerous showdown be averted in either case?

THIRTY-FIVE years ago this month, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed by 60 countries, with the aim of stopping the spread of nuclear weaponry. Though three countries in troubled parts of the world—India, Pakistan and Israel—refused to sign and went on to develop nuclear arms, the NPT has, overall, been a success. However, the prospects for preventing proliferation have now taken a severe knock, with North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT in January, followed by its recent admission that it is making nuclear weapons; and growing suspicions that Iran is doing the same despite still being in the NPT. Over the weekend, American officials said they had evidence that North Korea was building a second plant to produce plutonium. On Monday July 21st, Britain’s prime minister, Tony Blair, had talks in Beijing with President Hu Jintao about the growing Korean crisis, having visited South Korea’s president, Roh Moo-hyun, on Sunday. Afterwards, Mr Blair expressed optimism that three-way talks between North Korea, America and China would be held in the next few weeks.

On Friday, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—the United Nations body that monitors countries’ compliance with the NPT—had said that he regarded North Korea as “the most immediate and most serious threat to the nuclear non-proliferation regime”. But the worries about Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons programme have also grown in the past few days: on Friday, diplomats told Reuters news agency that UN inspectors had found enriched uranium—possibly the highly enriched type used to make bombs—in samples taken in Iran. On Sunday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, presided over a ceremony to bring into service a new long-range missile, based on North Korean technology, which is capable of hitting Iran’s arch-foe, Israel, or indeed American bases in the Middle East.

Mr ElBaradei said he was encouraged by China’s recent diplomatic moves to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. But he expressed concern at recent North Korean claims to have reprocessed 8,000 spent nuclear-fuel rods, which would produce enough plutonium for about six nuclear warheads. American sensors have detected emissions of krypton-85 gas—which is emitted when nuclear fuel is reprocessed—from North Korea’s Yongbyon plant, though only in small quantities. This may mean the Koreans are exaggerating how much plutonium they have produced there. On Saturday, though, American officials confirmed an earlier report in the New York Times that sensors on North Korea’s borders had detected elevated levels of krypton-85 that did not seem to be coming from Yongbyon, suggesting the country might have built a second plant to produce plutonium.

Last October, America said North Korea had admitted having a secret nuclear programme. In December, North Korea expelled the IAEA inspectors that had been monitoring the Yongbyon plant, and in January it announced its withdrawal from the NPT. North Korea says it will only discuss its nuclear programme in one-to-one talks with America and will only make concessions if America agrees to a “non-aggression” pact. America has been insisting that any talks must be multilateral, bringing in China, Japan and South Korea. In April, China persuaded North Korea to participate in a three-way summit with itself and America but this appeared to make little headway. In June, North Korea formally admitted trying to make nuclear weapons, so it could reduce the cost of its conventional forces and divert resources to improve living standards in its ravaged economy.

The machinations of North Korea’s eccentric dictator, Kim Jong Il, are hard to fathom at the best of times. On the one hand he continues to talk and act tough: on Thursday, his troops fired on an observation post in the demilitarised zone that has separated the two Koreas since their war 50 years ago. And on Saturday, it emerged that North Korea had deployed more missiles (so far, non-nuclear ones) capable of reaching Japan, and had moved more artillery within range of the South Korean capital, Seoul. On the other hand such sabre-rattling has sometimes in the past been a prelude to a climbdown or compromise. On Monday, though North Korea reiterated its demands for bilateral negotiations with America, there was speculation in South Korea that a further round of talks involving China, to be held in early September, may be announced shortly.

Iran’s nuclear questions

Whereas North Korea is boasting that its nuclear programme is aimed at making weapons, Iran continues to insist that its programme is only for peaceful purposes: to generate electricity. Over the weekend, both the Iranian authorities and the IAEA stopped short of denying the reports from diplomats that enriched uranium, possibly weapons-grade, had been detected in Iran: a government spokesman said the reports were “questionable” while the IAEA said they were “pure speculation”. The IAEA has the right, under Iran’s current status in the NPT, to take samples at Iran’s Natanz nuclear plant but not at some other facilities, such as the Kalaye Electric Company, near Tehran, where machinery used in uranium enrichment has been assembled. Iran has already turned down a request by the IAEA to take samples there.

Backed by many of the world’s main powers, Mr ElBaradei went to Tehran this month to press Iran to sign an additional protocol to the NPT which would oblige it to allow much more intrusive inspections. This protocol was devised in 1991 after the discovery of Iraq’s secret nuclear-weapons programme. Iran has said it is considering signing the protocol but talks continue. There are many reasons to question Iran’s protestations that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful: why is it producing uranium metal, which is useful for weapons but not for generating electricity? Why develop a heavy-water reactor (again, of possible use for bomb-making) when the nuclear power plants Iran is building with Russian help have light-water reactors? And above all, why would a country with some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, which flares off (ie, wastes) vast volumes of gas that could fuel power plants, bother with the expense of nuclear power unless it had other motives? Iran’s unveiling of its new long-range missile, which could one day be nuclear-tipped, at a time when revelations about various secret nuclear plants are spilling out, is hardly reassuring.

There are some reasons to hope that deals can be reached with both Iran and North Korea to discourage them from deploying nuclear weapons on their own soil or offering them to other countries. The world’s main powers have started to put concerted pressure on both states: China, which is North Korea’s only important friend in the world, and an important supplier of food and fuel, has been sending its senior diplomats to Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul to try to get talks going; Russia has been urging both North Korea and Iran to avoid a conflict; and the European Union announced on Monday that it would review its ties with Iran in September, depending on whether it signed up for the IAEA’s tougher inspections.

But there is also plenty to be pessimistic about. Iran is in the middle of an internal conflict between liberal reformers and hardline Islamic conservatives, with the latter convinced that any concessions will only encourage America to demand more, perhaps including “regime change”. It is not clear at all what North Korea’s Mr Kim really wants, nor whether he would stick to any deal if one were reached. If either country did deploy nuclear weapons, it would destabilise the whole of the surrounding region: in Iran’s case, it might prompt Egypt and Saudi Arabia to try to go nuclear. So far, America has stopped short of threatening either North Korea or Iran with military intervention. But it has also stopped short of ruling this out entirely: on Monday, Mr Bush said America had “no intention” of attacking North Korea; but he also told Iran, along with Syria, that it would be “held accountable” for the support that Mr Bush accuses it of giving to terrorist groups.

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1937313

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

A FRIGHTENED IRAN CENSORED LEADER’S THREATS AGAINST ISRAEL

By Safa Haeri

PARIS-TEL AVIV 22 July (IPS) Urged urgently by some 300 Iranian political activists, lawmakers, scholars and intellectuals, a controversial passage of a speech delivered to the Iranian Armed Forces by Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i in which he said Israel could be a target of Iranian new missiles had been deleted from all Iranian media, internet sites and news agencies, including the official IRNA and the independent ISNA, run by the students.

In the address, pronounced Sunday during ceremonies marking the transfer of the newly tested Shahab-3 ballistic missile to the Revolutionary Guards Air Force, Mr. Khameneh'i said Iran could target Israel, in defence of the Palestinian cause.

The Shahab-3 has a range of over 1.300 kilometres and can reach Israel as well as American forces stationed in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but also parts of southern Europe and Russia.

"The office of the leader instructed Judge Sa’id Mortazavi to order all Iranian media, without any exception, to delete that part of the speech, since it has already caused an international outrage against Iran", one journalist told Iran Press Service

"Today, the Iranian nation and armed forces ... is prepared to stand up to the enemy with a firm resolve anywhere. Today, we can target Israel, defending Palestinian cause and also Lebanon", Khameneh’i said, quoted by the State-run, conservatives-controlled radio and television.

A senior Israeli intelligence official, quoted Tuesday by Israeli newspaper "Ha’aretz", has warned that Iran's upgrading of its Shihab-3 long-range missile is aimed, first and foremost, at giving Tehran the ability to strike at Israel.

The official said that the chances of Iran firing a missile at Israel were low for now, but that Tehran's announcement that the ground-to-ground missile was operational should set off warning bells.

"A new element has been added to the Iranian's ability to threaten Israel. We shouldn't ignore, either, the statement attributed to Ali Khamenei, that the missile is part of the answer to the Palestinian problem," the senior intelligence official added.

"Reacting to the menace, Israel’s Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz told the ruling Likud Knesset (Israel’s parliament) faction that Israel is prepared to counter the threat from Iranian Shahab-3 missiles.

The Iranian-origin Mr. Mofaz assured the Israeli public that the Arrow missile can effectively defend against the Shahab-3, adding that he was in contact with American and other international officials who are helping Israel deal with the Iranian threat.

"We're taking all steps necessary to counter the threat as much as possible", Mofaz told reporters. "Israel has the necessary means to respond defensively, as well as deterrent capability. The Shihab-3 and other projects reveal that Iran is eager to achieve non-conventional and even nuclear capability, but Israel is prepared".

Israel’s Foreign Affairs minister Silvan Shalom, meeting 25 counterparts from the European Union Monday in Brussels, had also taken the issue, calling on them to join the United States and Israel in putting more pressures over the Islamic Republic to abandon its programmes for developing nuclear-based arms that he said is primarily targeting the Jewish State.

Tehran denies the charges, insisting that the project has a purely civilian nature, aimed at generating electricity.

The European Union issued its strongest warning so far to Iran about its nuclear programmes and human rights on Monday and said it would review ties with Tehran in September in the light of its behavior.

EU foreign ministers expressed "increasing concern" about Iran's nuclear program and reaffirmed that closer economic relations depended on Iran making progress in four areas of concern -- human rights, fighting terrorism, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and its attitude to the Middle East peace process.

"The Council decided to review future steps of the cooperation between EU and Iran in September in view of further developments particularly with regard to the second report of IAEA Director General (Mohamed) ElBaradei, the IAEA evaluations and the possible conclusions of the Board of Governors of this Agency", they said in a statement.

They also branded the violent death of Canadian-Iranian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi, killed during interrogations, a crime and said Iran had an obligation under international law to prosecute those responsible.

The 15-nation EU is negotiating a trade and cooperation agreement with the Islamic Republic but has clearly linked conclusion of the accord to progress on its political demands.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin said Iran had to make a strategic choice to sign up to more intrusive, no-notice inspections of its nuclear program, cooperate in the fight against terrorism and improve its human rights record.

"Iran has to know clearly what we expect of it, and what it can expect from us if it meets our expectations", Villepin told a news conference.

Israeli Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lt. General Moshe Ya’alon told senior officials during his visit to Washington last week that Iran is currently attempting to fill the vacuum left by Saddam Hoseyn’s regime by supporting terror organizations and Palestinian suicide bombers.

President George W. Bush accuses Syria and Iran of backing terrorists who undermine peace process U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday accused Syria and Iran of supporting "terrorists" who undermine Middle East peace efforts and said countries continuing the practice would be held accountable.

"Today Syria and Iran continue to harbor and assist terrorists. This behavior is completely unacceptable and states that support terror will be held accountable", Bush said at a news conference at his Texas ranch with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, one of his European supporter of war in Iraq.

Bush has branded Iran - along with North Korea and the Iraq of ousted President Saddam Hussein - as a member of an "axis of evil" that threatens to spread terrorism. Washington charges Iran is not doing enough against members of the militant Al-Qaida network.

"Ha’aretz" reported this month that the missile's recent testing was its most successful of seven or eight launches during the past five years.

The last time Iran declared a test of the missile was in May 2002 when Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani said the country conducted a test to "enhance the power and accuracy of (the) Shahab-3 missile."

The missile technology is allegedly based on North Korea's No Dong surface-to-surface missile, but Iran says it is entirely locally made. "Shahab" means shooting star in Farsi.

U.S. intelligence officials have said Iran can probably fire several Shahab-3's in an emergency, but that it has not yet developed a completely reliable missile. ENDS IRAN MISSILE 22703

http://www.iran-press-service.com/