Exploring the 'Singularity'

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=1%23584 ^ | James John Bell

[The Shootist]

Technological change isn't just happening fast. It's happening at an exponential rate. Contrary to the commonsense, intuitive, linear view, we won't just experience 100 years of progress in the twenty-first century?it will be more like 20,000 years of progress.

Warp drive in 50 years? We can only hope.

[gonzo]

Interesting................FRegards

[tortoise]

Do you know Vernor Vinge? I've met him; he has one of the most engaging and flexible minds I've had the pleasure to meet.

Yes. And I agree. Definitely a cut above the average specimen of our species, mind-wise.

[tortoise]

This will happen in two ways: the chemical enhancement of the intelligence of living humans, and the genetic engineering of the humans yet to be born.

There are serious difficulties with these, particularly the former. There are definitely functional density limits to our hardware. Without getting into esoterica, I think there is a substantial amount of evidence that our brains are capable of not insignificant intelligence enhancement without chemicals (e.g. through environmental stimulation), but are largely limited by plasticity and generation of the computing substrate. At the same time, it would be difficult to coax too much additional capability out of our existing hardware; you can only drive so many synapses off a neuron, and location matters.

I think man-machine interfaces will be the best bet for extending our capability. Fortunately, that is coming along at a reasonable clip all things considered.

[tortoise]

Exponential trends for any phenomena rarely, if ever, continue unabated into infinity.

Absolutely. Every single trend is a sigmoid function. However, Kurzweil at the very least (and this comes from a site maintained by his people) believes that it is less a single function so much as it is the aggregate of an increasing number of sigmoid functions that are interacting with each other.

More precisely, if you do a detailed analysis of many critical trends you find out something very important. Not only are the growth functions exponential, but the exponents of the system themselves are increasing. I am in open disagreement with Kurzweil on many issues, but the trend analysis is correct. It doesn't matter that the trends are sigmoid because there is an overarching exponential function that these sigmoid functions are a part of.

The final analysis is sigmoidal, but not precisely how you are imagining it. The inflection point of the "super-curve" is sufficiently deep technologically that it represents a fundamentally different existence.

[FreeLibertarian]

Warp drive in 50 years? We can only hope.

In fifty years we will be the Warp Drive (and everything else).

[tjg]

Think about how our native intelligence would be improved just by finding a faster way for our brains to access information.

For example the IBM computer that can transmit the library of congress in two seconds. As a practical matter, it doesn't do me much good since reading the article and the posts took 15 or 20 minutes. What if we could bypass the monitor/eye interface and go right from the box to the brain? It will be a quantum leap towards the (drum roll) singularity.

[tjg]

Of course the tortise makes a good point relevant here. Just becasue you can access it, doesn't mean you can process it. Sure would be easier on the eyes though.

[SauronOfMordor]

Without getting into esoterica, I think there is a substantial amount of evidence that our brains are capable of not insignificant intelligence enhancement without chemicals (e.g. through environmental stimulation), but are largely limited by plasticity and generation of the computing substrate. At the same time, it would be difficult to coax too much additional capability out of our existing hardware; you can only drive so many synapses off a neuron, and location matters.

It's long been determined that lack of stimulation and neglect in infancy/childhood can produce a mentally-deficient individual. I think there may be things we can yet do in developing children that can more closely approach the genetic limits of their potential intelligence. There is a lot still to do in the area of discovering games and activities that may improve the intellectual development of children

[tortoise]

It's long been determined that lack of stimulation and neglect in infancy/childhood can produce a mentally-deficient individual. I think there may be things we can yet do in developing children that can more closely approach the genetic limits of their potential intelligence.

This is a good point. There is no reason we couldn't maximize the intelligence of people who aren't operating at their full potential, and there probably is some therapy that could help with this. It isn't like there is an over-abundance of super-intelligent people in the world. :-)

[Bob Ireland]

The World Conservation Union, the International Botanical Congress, and a majority of the world's biologists believe that a global mass extinction already is under way.
[[at least this would solve the Social Security and Medicare problems...]]

at this juncture the world as we have known it will become extinct, and new definitions of life, nature, and human will take hold.

If the new self-replicating GNR technologies are released into the environment ... they could be nearly impossible to recall or control

Cloning is the growing of genetically identical cells, eliminating the natural role of human biology and bringing us closer to the Singularity.

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Genesis 11:4:
...let us build us ... a tower, whose top may reach unto heaven...

Genesis 11:6:
And the Lord said ... now nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do.

Genesis 11:8:
So the Lord scattered them abroad...

= = = = = = = = = = = =

Then, of course, you have to have some anti-captitalist eco-babble:

the greatest dangers we face ultimately stem from a world where global corporations dominate ... within the now-unchallenged system of global capitalism and its manifold financial incentives and competitive pressures.

...and just plain eco-babble:

Joy warned that "knowledge alone will enable mass destruction"

what has been termed "The Sixth Extinction" is now under way. A simultaneous Harris Poll found that 60% of the public were totally unaware of the impending biological collapse.

nature's ancient biological creation is on the decline ... shreds of the ongoing biological collapse surface here and there.

...and just plain babble...

The true believers call themselves extropians, posthumans, and transhumanists

Extropians await the Singularity, seeking to overcome human limits, live indefinitely long, and become more intelligent through technology. Related groups include transhumanists and posthumanists.

...then there's techno-babble...

Kurzweil and many transhumanists define it as "a future time when societal, scientific, and economic change is so fast we cannot even imagine what will happen from our present perspective."

A distinctive feature will be that machine intelligence will have exceeded and even merged with human intelligence.

Nuclear bombs did not sprout more bombs, and toxic spills did not grow more spills
Oh, really?

Then there are just questions:

Moore noted that the number of transistors that could fit on a single computer chip had doubled every year for six years...
If man's speed doubled from about 40 mph in 1890, to [?] 4,000 mph in 1969 [Apollo Moon shots], does it follow that man will travel at 400,000 mph in 2030? [Not if he wishes to keep his head attached to his body...]

DARPA is working with Boeing to develop the X-45 unmanned combat air vehicle
Has this technology been OK'd by the START and INF Treaties? [Apparently the Predator has...]

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Yin summahry, lhet me shay this aboout that:
Balderdash!

[gonzo]

Balderdash? BALDERDASH?? Well, uh, I guess yer right..........FRegards

[RadioAstronomer]

Didn't they try that back in the 60s? ;^)

ROFL! :-)

[RadioAstronomer]

bttt! :-)

[Bob Ireland]

***Well, uh, I guess yer right***

Let me revise and extend my remarks; I'm not saying the 'singularity' is nonsense, but all that 'transhumanism' and new definitions of nature and all the eco-babble stuff...

[gonzo]

"...Let me revise and extend my remarks; I'm not saying the 'singularity' is nonsense, but all that 'transhumanism' and new definitions of nature and all the eco-babble stuff...

35 posted on 07/22/2003 2:42 PM EDT by Bob Ireland

I'm wit chu, Bob. I just hope we get good seats for the end-game..........FRegards

[AGreatPer]

Yea, and I remember the prediction back in the 70's that we're not going to need paper anymore.

[Bob Ireland]

***not going to need paper anymore***

I understand they still print money on paper, although I can't prove anything over $5.00... ;-)

[mr. skeptical]

if we could download information from the computer to our brain...what happends if theres a virus?(dont really want to think about that.)