For the reasons I laid out in that post and several other posts in the thread. I won't list them again but I will mention one more. The DA was super-reluctant to pursue this case, as we saw in the little power struggle that developed between him and the sheriff over the arrest warrant. The fact that a reluctant prosecutor felt compelled to take on a case which is destined for the full circus treatment by the media tells me that this girl is highly credible and that he has a good deal of evidence, some of which is probably still unknown to the public.
My gut goes the other way on this one, though. Kobe will have his own private domestic hell for the adultery aspect, as he should, but the evidence for "sexual assault" (whatever that means, in this day and age) will have to be pretty damning in order for me to believe this chick.