Satan on the air
A crucial test for the theocracy: Students are protesting throughout the country, while the United States is increasing external pressure, principally because of Teheran's nuclear program. Reformers are looking to Europe for support, while the religious extremists cling to power.
In the Mecca of the media world that revolves around Hollywood, 60-year-old Sia Atabai has spent years within the countless ranks of nameless producers. The former Iranian pop star's television station, National Iranian Television (NITV), with its crude mixture of news, talk shows and low-budget films in Farsi, was at best well-known among expatriate Iranians.
Atabai's dream of becoming a Persian media mogul for his four million fellow countrymen living in the United States and Western Europe seemed excessively ambitious - until the middle of last week.
Ever since the outbreak of student protests against the religious leadership in Teheran, Atabai has at least been assured international attention well beyond the expatriate community. His station, NITV, which is also received in Iran and supposedly played a part in spurring the unrest, has become a nightmare for the mullahs.
The leadership of the theocracy is virtually panic-stricken. For the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic, the interior ministry has formed a crisis committee for the "Defense of Fundamental Islamic Values and Strengthening of Internal Security." Ali Junessi, director of the Iranian secret service, even demanded special courts intended to sentence "elements endangering the state" in abbreviated proceedings.
Even more threatening to the religious leadership is that, in contrast to unrest in the past, the liberal-leaning head of state, Mohammed Khatami, is not just facing pressure on the home front. In Washington, US President George W. Bush is becoming increasingly open in declaring his intentions, while the hawks in his administration are not ruling out military action.
The leader of the world's only remaining superpower has not only demonstratively welcomed protests against the regime, which Washington accuses of supporting the Al Qaeda terrorist network and stirring up opposition to US troops in Iraq. Bush is also attempting to exert pressure on the government in Teheran through the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) in Vienna.
In a report issued last Monday, the head of the IAEO, Mohammed al-Baradei, accused the religious leadership of having failed to disclose "certain nuclear material and activities." In doing so, the world's chief nuclear inspector has bolstered Washington's concern that the mullahs have been developing a nuclear bomb for some time.
US intelligence services are not just concerned that Iran is gathering expertise on building nuclear weapons at its largest nuclear power plant in the port city of Bushir, which is scheduled for completion by the end of this year. They are also worried that Teheran could produce highly enriched uranium for use in nuclear weapons at a long-hidden facility near Natan, 240 kilometers south of the capital. A heavy water reactor that can also produce weapons-grade plutonium is also in the works in Arak, not far from the holy city of Ghom.
Teheran rejects claims of its alleged military ambitions as malicious insinuations by the "Great Satan." President Khatami assures that the sole purpose of Iran's nuclear program is "for the production of electricity." But in the wake of the al-Baradei report, US hawks such as Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld are now being joined by representatives of "Old Europe," such as German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, in voicing their "cause for concern."
At their conference in Luxembourg, the EU foreign ministers left no doubt as to their support for Washington. According to EU representatives, Teheran could only expect the anticipated trade and cooperation treaty with the EU to materialize once it is certain that Iran's nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful purposes. And the mullahs need this treaty more than ever.
Allah's self-proclaimed earthly representatives have managed to lead their oil-rich country to the brink of both political and economic ruin. There is no end to complaints about corruption and nepotism among the clerics, who control large segments of the state-owned economy. About two-thirds of Iran's 70 million people are younger than 30, and they suffer from unemployment and a lack of prospects. Every other Iranian is unemployed.
The riots of the past week are at best an indication of the true extent of frustration. More than ever before, the protestors can now depend on sympathy from within the population. Residents have given refuge to demonstrators, and drivers have blocked traffic to obstruct security forces, though their efforts failed to prevent security crackdowns.
But although the images photographed by some observers are reminiscent of revolutionary scenes in the late 1970s, Iran's rulers continue to maintain a firm hold on the majority of the population. Most of all, the students lack a charismatic leader who can truly mobilize public opinion, someone like the one-time founder of the Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who also had at his disposal an untainted social model - his design for a theocracy.
The activists of today want a different republic. Just as during the "Hot Summer" of 1999, when students challenged the mullahs for the first time, the current demonstrators' slogans are democracy and freedom of speech.
Whether such pressure will truly produce results remains questionable. The Khatami administration, in the context of the nuclear conflict, has signaled its willingness to fully cooperate with the IAEO in the future, and has even agreed to unannounced inspections of its facilities. However, it still refuses to allow certain tests demanded by the IAEO.
The only good news for the regime has come from France, where the interior ministry has taken legal action against the European headquarters of the Peoples' Mujahedin. In protest, fanatical adherents to the group soaked themselves in gasoline and set themselves on fire in Rome, Bern and London.
However, it seems unlikely that the worldly Khatami will prevail in the struggle for power in Teheran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, well-known for his virulent dislike of America, maintains an iron grip on both the judicial system and the security services, which were not reactivated until last Wednesday, when they were deployed on a special mission. To prevent further calls for demonstrations through the expatriate TV station, they stormed houses in Teheran and seized the devil's equipment - satellite dishes that were previously largely tolerated - from rooftops.
Nevertheless, NITV producer Atabai has no doubt that the uprising has been successful. The telephone calls and faxes he has received from throughout the theocracy have convinced him that "Iran can now liberate itself."
DIETER BEDNARZ
http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/english/0,1518,254205,00.html *** A German View ****
MARCH, APRIL & MAY 2003 : (JAPANESE PAPER ALLEGES THAT IRANIAN NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS TRAVELED TO NORTH KOREA) In related news, a Japanese newspaper reported today that Iranian nuclear scientists have traveled to North Korea three times this year, perhaps in an effort to learn techniques to evade international inspectors. Two Iranian scientists visited North Korea in March, an Iranian nuclear official traveled there in April, and two others spent more than a week there in May, according to Tokyo's Sankei newspaper (Agence France-Presse, June 11).
