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As of now it appears increasingly likely that Gibbons will make the jump. I'm expecting him to narrow Reid's support in Washoe County (where he is suprisingly strong for a democrat). Overcoming Las Vegas will be a problem, but there is also a variable that has suprisingly recieved little mention: the increasing immigration of residents of California in to low tax Nevada. The state is becomeing increasing republican, while the reverse is true in California, mainly because many GOP voters have fled to Idaho, Colorado, and Nevada.

If only that were true...unfortunately, the state is no longer becoming "increasingly Republican" due to the vast amount of hispanic immigration that is now fast outpacing the immigration from non-hispanic Californians. Reid has strong hispanic support (With help from the unions...Hard to believe he actually co-sponsored legislation significantly reducing immigration less than ten years ago)

The other problems Gibbons will have involve the G.O.P. base. Although he is a conservative, he is also moderately pro-choice and will unfortunately lose single issue pro-life voters to the allegedly pro-life Reid; Further, about 10 percent of the vote will be L.D.S. (Mormon) and Reid, who is L.D.S. himself, will likely still peel a substantial portion of that vote away from the G.O.P. as he has in past elections.

All of that, combined with the union money and voter fraud, and Gibbons has an uphill (though not impossible) task.

Voter registration in 2000 showed the Dems leading by a very slim 363K to 359K. Link

Registration in 2002 showed the GOP up by almost 8K (363K to 355K).

I'd say Nevada is trending Pubbie, albeit slowly. And since 2002 the Dems have outregistered the Pubbies ever so slightly, though the GOP still has a 7K+ advantage. Link