Replies

Thanks for the link and info. TaxRelief has an interest in the mathematics of epidemics, as do I. Obviously, you do as well.

My earlier comment regarded establishing a new time zero for mathematical models showing the total number of infections. Since the "official" number of active cases may drop to zero sometime this summer, this step would be appropriate.

Although my previous post was clearly and perfectly incomprehensible, I'll try to make up for it with long-winded obscurity.

Since the transmissibility of SARS may vary seasonally, a mathematical model appropriate for the summer may not be the right model for the winter. Generally speaking, the underlying causes for seasonality are not fully known, but "p", at least, may be less during the summer.

Likewise, the effectiveness of human intervention (isolation, quarantine, travel restrictions, etc.) will vary depending on the resources and determination of the people involved. This will also affect the rate of growth in cases (a lower "n").

A huge and little understood variable involves the number of "seeded" cases we may have in the general population (as pointed out by Dr. Niman). If these cases become active this fall at the start of the cold/flu season, then "N" will start at a much higher number than we had this spring.

And lastly, of course, any model we build based on publicly available information will be dependent on the accuracy of the data. A government that lies as a matter of national policy, such as China, is useless as a source of information (garbage in, garbage out).

I love your sense of humor.

Your post made perfect sense to me.

Have you thought at all about how many people will have to die in order to not have any cases by the end of this month?

I'm hoping that someone who is not as lazy as I am will post the figure.

I agree with your points.

If you review my posts, you will see that I have argued that any mathematical formulation on the SARS epidemic is doomed to failure or fraudulent - at this time.

My position being:

The value of T is unknown.