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It seems to me that a distinct advantage we have in dealing with a contemplated SARS outbreak is the relatively long ( 6 days ) incubation of the virus as compared to influenza ( about 2 days ).

Rapid identification of contacts, and rigorous quarantine can quickly contain an outbreak, once a primary case is identified, a process that is just not feasible when dealing with influenza cases. Of course, such a process is only possible where competent public health authorities are in place.

So I guess I am a little more optimistic than some on this thread that should a worldwide pandemic of SARS eventuate this fall, we are better situated than most to contain widespread infection than those poor third world souls whose only public health system is a wing and a prayer.

I share your concern about the toll any epidemic will take on smaller hospitals, especially if every patient in a facility with respiratory symptoms or a fever has to be treated as a potential SARS case. There aren't enough N 95 masks in all of Christendom to meet the demand if this happens.

You're right about the SARS incubation period giving us time to identify the people who have been exposed, but it is difficult to get compliance with quarantine for extended periods.

The WHO (and the U.S. CDC) is saying the quarantine period should be 10 days. Unfortunately, there are numerous examples of SARS incubation periods that are even longer, and it is possible they are common enough that the quarantine period should be longer as a result.

Another issue is whether people are still contagious after they seem to have recovered. SARS virus in feces has been found for months after a person is released from the hospital.

I'm living in Taipei, and having watched the SARS epidemic spread here I have a few observations (strictly from a layman's perspective).

1. Quarantines are easy to announce, not easy to enforce. They depend fully on the willingness of people to comply, and I doubt a majority of Americans will be willing to strictly quarantine themselves if they are determined to have had contact with a known SARS case.

2. Swings from massive over confidence to almost raw panic are very rapid; they give you whiplash. Taiwanese rush to these extremes (we have nothing to worry about, it's out of control, we have it contol...oops), but as the Canadians have shown, it is not an exclusive Asian phenomenon.

3. There are powerful economic forces at play that put huge pressures on the health care system--from the CEOs of hospitals to public health officials. Toronto is a case in point; China is a case in point; and Hong Kong will be a case in point.

4. The hospital outbreaks make taking an injured or sick family members all the more difficult. People get SARS far too easily in hospitals who quite easily misdiagnose SARS.

5. Public sanitation improves, at least in Taipei (I have heard the same in Hong Kong).

6. It is the social impact, at least here, that is the most nerve wracking. Things go crazy quickly here (see item two above).

7. Increased sales of N95 masks will add to 3M's quarterly profits. (Did you know they make them in children's sizes?)