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To: Hal1950
Does anyone that maybe knows more than me about this particular subject think this is a lot of 'Henny Penny'?
5 posted on 05/19/2003 1:08:12 PM PDT by BlueNgold
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To: BlueNgold
Yes.

BTW Dollar/Yen has been as low as 98 within the last decade and no one but the currency traders even noticed. Overseas markets hate weak dollars because it works against them. Paul Volker started the non-support of the dollar and it continues with Alan Greenspan.

The truth of the matter is that the exchange rate gets set by the market, if the US tried to prop it up, it would waste a lot of money and the dollar would end up where it is now anyway. Until interest rates go up, or foreigners lower theirs to a reasonable level the dollar will stay where it is.

The true indicators of the strenght/weakness od the USD are cross currency rates without the dollar involved. EUR/JPY GBP/JPY HKD/GPB etc. look at them historically and you will get a good idea of the true value of the dollar. Also you can look at the yield curves for USD/EUR for Tom/Next through 1yr in the swap market. That will tell you the projection of interest rate differentials with exchange rates playing a factor in the price. You can also try to price leaps, but they are much more speculative.
29 posted on 05/19/2003 4:44:52 PM PDT by Woodman
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