Replies

there are many countries around the world with a high birth rate, but a poor economy.

the issue is--a deficit birth rate will destroy a good economy. it's related to the fact that you have to make about 2-3% more money each year to stay in the same place. if you make $100,000 last year, you'll need $102,000 or 103,000 to stay even.

our economic system has to expand each year to stay healthy. one means of doing this with no birth rate would be increased productivity. but not all businesses can achieve an increased productivity each year. another issue, is entry level labor. entry level jobs don't require the same expenses as higher level jobs.

china is not mexico.

first of all, the big issue is culture. chinese society is still confucian in origin, meaning that children owe a large responsibility to their parents. the culture before maoism had a strong work ethic, similar to northern europeans and their american descendents.

in contrast, mexico was settled by mediterranean cultures. i spoke to this issue on this thread before. i asked you before, name one country settled by portugal, spain, italy, france, or greece that has a booming economy. there are none that i can think of. the philippines, for example, is philippino and spanish as a culture. and its economy barely gets by. in fact, some 6 million philippinos work abroad and send money home. argentina at the turn of the 19th and 20th c's was to be a star economy, like the united states, canada, and australia. but what happened? it's the culture. mediterrean cultures impede capitalism. counter to this point, venice had a strong mercantile economy during the renaissance. but capitalism per se, was born in the north of europe, in scotland, and england, holland, and later germany. there is no doubt a different work ethic in northern europe. it was this work ethic that immigrants brought to our country.

successful colonial cultures were settled by the dutch and english.

china offers an educated workforce that mexico cannot offer. mexican education at the autonomous university focuses on marxism. there are relatively few world-class scientists and engineers. nor is there the corporate culture to employ these people. as one mexican remarked recently, 20 years of making american autos in mexico and we still don't know HOW to manufacture a car. yet, the chinese are learning.

low end manufacturing in china costs 1/4 the wages of mexico. that's why the tv manufacturing, which once made tijuana the world's center, is leaving for china.

china has entry-level workers for decades and decades and decades to come. one economist estimated that the supply of entry-level workers would end about 2050.

today southern italy is lackluster, while any production occurs in nothern italy. italy has a deficit birthrate, and this does affect their economy.

thanks.

I agree ---it's all cultural/political. I think a growing middle class especially where kids are raised with middle class values is great for an economy. A growing poverty class is bad for an economy. One reason Mexico is poor besides their corrupt government is they tend to have children very young and many don't wait for marriage or education or job first. It's not unusual at all to see 12 year old mothers over there (or here on the border) and poverty is almost a guarantee. In cultures where people wait until they can afford children before having them, there is less poverty ---if you can't provide for one or two children ---then it's too many children for you ---if you can provide for 11 or 12 ---then you should have that many.