Clinton seems not to have noticed the news about SARS. There may well be no unified China in 30 years, and it will certainly at the least be considerably weaker than one would have predicted a few months ago.
For that matter, the squabbling over the Iraq War will probably mean that the EU will be considerably weaker than one would have predicted a couple of years ago.
While China has many problems I don't think that staying in one piece will be as challenging as it proved for the USSR. And I don't think SARS will have such a cataclysmic effect on their society as Chernobyl in USSR, but we'll have to see.