U.S. jobless claims [455,000] rose in latest week

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | April 24, 2003

[Starwind]

Reuters
U.S. jobless claims rose in latest week
Thursday April 24, 8:32 am ET

 WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department
report of initial state jobless benefit claims, seasonally
adjusted.
  Week Ended  Initial Claims  4-Week Avg.  Continued Claims   
  04/19/03     455,000      439,250         Unavailable
  04/12/03     447,000-R    426,000-R        3,589,000        
  04/05/03     412,000      421,250          3,547,000-R      
  03/29/03     443,000      423,250          3,488,000-R      
r-revised
 REVISIONS:
 INITIAL CLAIMS: April 12 from 442,000
 4-WEEK AVG: April 12 from 424,750
 CONTINUED CLAIMS: April 5 from 3,574,000; March 29 from
3,498,000
 STATES WITH DECREASE IN CLAIMS OF MORE THAN 1,000:   
 Five states reported a decrease in claims of more than 1,000
in the week ended April 12, the latest period for which  the
data are available. Those were:
 Illinois                -3,237
 Massachusetts           -2,183
 Arkansas                -1,985
 STATES WITH INCREASE IN MORE THAN 1,000:
 Fourteen states reported an increase in claims of more than
1,000 in the week ended April 12, the latest period for which
the data are available. Among the largest were:
 Michigan             +11,752
 California            +8,927
 Pennsylvania          +6,052
 Indiana               +2,448
 Louisiana             +2,379
 Maryland              +1,871
 FORECAST:
 Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast:
 U.S. jobless claims 425,000 in the April 19 week
 HISTORICAL COMPARISONS:
 US JOBLESS CLAIMS AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 486,000 IN WEEK OF MAR
30, 2002
 U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE HIGHEST SINCE 449,000 IN WEEK OF APR 20,
2002
 NOTES:
 The insured unemployment rate, a measurement of the work
force receiving unemployment benefits, was 2.8 percent in the
April 12 week, unchanged from the prior week.
 The department said 802,777 individuals filed for the new
government program that extends unemployment benefits for the
week ended April 5, up from 786,355 in the prior week.
 Michigan had more layoffs in the automobile and furniture
industries. California had more layoffs in the trade and service
industries.
 Pennsylvania said it had more layoffs in the construction,
trade, service, food and transportation equipment industries.
Indiana had more layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing
industries.
 Louisiana said it had an increase due to the start of a new
quarter of wage credits for benefits purposes, as well as
layoffs in the automobile industry.
 Illinois had fewer layoffs in the construction, trade,
service and manufacturing industries.
 Massachusetts, Arkansas and Maryland had no comment.

[arete]

Unfortunately, without real tax code reform, (not just rehtorical 10-years down the line miniscule tax cut promises), massive reduction in in government spending, and an iron-clad replacement for the ponzi-scheme that is Social Security, the American Dream will become a fond memory from the prior generations.

It will be impossible for government to reduce spending. They have gone beyond the point of no return. Politicians are in business of having the taxpayer pay for their vote buying promises. There is no free lunch.

Richard W.

[Starwind]

As I travel around Cowtown, I make mental notes that there aren't many office buildings, industrial parks, or strip retail parks without obvious vacency.

You're absolutley right. Nationwide commercial vacancies are rising and while rents are falling, zero rental income is still a loss to landlords.

It's not your locale, it's nationwide and global save for industrial cities in India and China.

[Billy_bob_bob]

"We seriously need to review the H1-B program and the offshore developments."

Why? They are doing EXACTLY what they were intended to do, which is to drive down our wages and our standard of living. If you are opposed to that, then you are an ignorant racist, nativist and protectionist, and you will end up being labeled as a "hatemonger". Now shut up and get back to work. Don't you know that Americans are not allowed to speak up for their own interests? Do you WANT to be labeled as a "hatemonger"?

[Starwind]

There is no free lunch.

Unless of course you're an illegal alien, H1-B visa holder, Indian or Chinese IT worker, politician, or Dire Straits band member.

[Republican Party Reptile]

PatrioticAmerican sez ...

"Many that made $60-80K are now happy to have $40K. Last year, I did a large project and got high end developers for $50K, and they were real happy to have the jobs. One guy just took a $40K job, and he's 42 with 20 years experience. We seriously need to review the H1-B program and the offshore developments.

So ... did you had any influence on the rate paid to developers on the proejct? And if you did, and if you think the pay scale is presently unfairly depressed, why didn't you pay them 60K to 80K instead of paying them only 50K or 40K for a guy with 20 years of exp?

Has the availability of larger pool of highly skilled workers at a lower rate been helpful to your project?

It;s a bit vertigo inducing to hear you complaining about H1Bs drivng down market rate when at the same time you also actively participate in taking advantage of the lower market rate to offer more attractive bid on projects with lower development cost and get talent for what less than what you think they are worth.

[arete]

Nationwide commercial vacancies are rising and while rents are falling, zero rental income is still a loss to landlords.

In my area, they are still putting up commerical buildings and strip malls like crazy. Problem is that even the ones completed over a year ago are 1/2 to 1/4 vacant. Sure sign that there is too much liquidity in the system. We have a borrow and spend economy without regard to future consequences -- as long as the illusion can be kept alive another day. You know who will eventually be stuck bailing out all the lenders don't you? The bankers and builders are going to make billions and the taxpayer will end up cleaning up the mess. Remember the S&L scandals? Same exact pattern. Things got so out of hand during that fleecing, that they had to actually bulldoze entire subdivisions that didn't have, not had any hope of ever having buyers. Yikes. We never learn.

Richard W.

[Billy_bob_bob]

I suppose you'll be as enthusiastic about H1-b's when it's your job that gets hit. Do you like the idea of having to learn more and more, and having to work harder and harder for the privilege of earning less and less? Because that is what it is like for engineers, and I for one am sick of it.

Really, what do YOU do for a living?

[arete]

Unless of course you're an illegal alien, H1-B visa holder, Indian or Chinese IT worker, politician, or Dire Straits band member.

Just a fine example of Greenspan's PRODUCTIVITY miracle. It's everywhere. Can you even find anyone on a construction site who speaks English?

Richard W.

[freeper12]

>>Many that made $60-80K are now happy to have $40K. Last year, I did a large project and got high end developers for $50K, and they were real happy to have the jobs. One guy just took a $40K job, and he's 42 with 20 years experience.

I retired last year (Jan'02), but was a contract developer for years...one guy that I worked with (he worked for same client, but not for me), was told that if he wanted to stay on, he would need to take a 50% cut in his rate, which he did (after mild-complaining and seeing no other options around)...3 months later they told him if he wanted to stay around he needed to take ANOTHER 50% rate cut...he is still there, doing the same thing, but get only 25% of what he was making less than 2 years ago...man that sucks.

[Republican Party Reptile]

I suppose you'll be as enthusiastic about H1-b's when it's your job that gets hit. Do you like the idea of having to learn more and more, and having to work harder and harder for the privilege of earning less and less? Because that is what it is like for engineers, and I for one am sick of it.

Really, what do YOU do for a living?

Actually, I have personal experience with lay offs in the tech sector - first time back in the mid 80's when I first started out at Texas Instruments, last time in 2001 when I was a Product Manager for a large computer OEM and again in 2002 from a start-up.

My own story - I have no assumption it's reflective of anyone else's experience, but it's just one data point from on person - laid off in early 2001 (was making mid-90's), but with pretty good luck and with right skills at right place and right time, landed at a start-up that was still flushed with capital, actually made a lot more (135K, and I'll be the first to admit I was overpaid, but hey, if they wanted to pay me that ...), well that little ride didn't last, like a lot other start-ups, reality check hits and laid off in early summer of 2002. Had a few interviews in the two three months in the summer afer the lay-off, but the only solid offer was for a tech marketing job in Toronto, Canada, declined, didn't want to move to Canada (although if I did I would have been an American taking away jobs from deserving Canadians) Pretty much no activities at all for through and Fall of 2002, did some part time work for another boot strapped start-up, very little money, but kept me occupied and engaged in the industry. In mid Nov got a contract QA (e-commerce infrastructure, connecting CMS to app server) project manager gig, paid what works out to be 80K per year, but as it was a short term contract it ended in Jan. Spent Feb working part time with the boot strapped start-up again. Begin to see hiring activities picking up, more interviews. Got a contract gig that paid equivalent of $95K per year doing IT project management in global supply chain systems, job is supposed to run through Sep, but still actively looking, things do look better, getting semi-steady interviews for what I want to do,i.e. product management and marketing, while no solid offers yet, the pace is picking up a lot quicker and much more active compared to last year, and am also still getting calls once a week or 10 days for about potential IT project management contract opportunities. So I do see, from my own vantage point, an uptick in the tech job sector.

So, things aren't exactly the late 90's gravy train, but not totally hopelessly bleak from where I sit either. While I have gone through two lay-offs in the last 24 months,except for three or four months last year, I have been able to get reasonably paid work related to my industry background in one form or another, and while my pay has came down from the internet bubble height, it's still within the band of what the market seems to think product managers and project managers ought to be paid - low 80's to mid 90's.

So you ask what I do? That's what I do ....

I don't stew much or whine about why I lost my job or whose fault it must be, I focus on what I can do next and go get it - there were no marketing jobs, so I went back to project management, there weren't permanent jobs, so I went to a series of contract gigs, there wasn't a well paid full time job, so I picked up something part time for a few months, I even started to write my own business plan during the down time, and now I think things are beginning to look better. It has worked Ok for me.

[Starwind]

Similar rate cuts going on at B2B level...for example, JetBlu just annonuced they got a 'great price' on new planes (gee, wonder why?)...I also know small companies are getting forced to cut prices and they are still having to wait 90-120 days to collect.

No one gets out unscathed, but how many will get out alive.

[PatrioticAmerican]

"So ... did you had any influence on the rate paid to developers on the proejct? And if you did, and if you think the pay scale is presently unfairly depressed, why didn't you pay them 60K to 80K instead of paying them only 50K or 40K for a guy with 20 years of exp? "

Market, buddy, market. When the client cuts the pay to the company, the company must cut the pay to the staff. Simple economics,and, no, the company didn't realize any higher profit.

What used to be $1 mill contracts are now going for $250-$400k.

[PatrioticAmerican]

P.S. We gave the staff one months bonus for completing on time. We also we able to ensure two hired on with the client, 4 got jobs elsewhere, and only two had to be let go, of which our corporate office hired one and I got a job a few months later for another. I actually gave him a job that was offered to me.

[Republican Party Reptile]

Besides, I think that was a pretty fair question for "PatrioticAmerican" - why isn't he paying someone a higher wage if he really does believe that what he is paying is an unfairly low wage?

[PatrioticAmerican]

"Has the availability of larger pool of highly skilled workers at a lower rate been helpful to your project?"

Any project does better with better people. The market caused our pay scale. We had plenty to chose from, and I was VERY open about the opportunity and what it entailed. We had a great team. They all put out and did their best. The engagement was very sucessful, and we bent over backwards to see to it that the team was taken care of to the best of anyone's ability.

[FITZ]

What I think is so funny now is how all the telemarketers can't speak English or maybe they think they're speaking English but they've got accents so heavy you can't understand a word they're saying. I can't imagine it's going to improve sales when people who are already annoyed by all the telemarketers now can't understand them.

[PatrioticAmerican]

"It;s a bit vertigo inducing to hear you complaining about H1Bs drivng down market rate when at the same time you also actively participate in taking advantage of the lower market rate to offer more attractive bid on projects with lower development cost and get talent for what less than what you think they are worth."

Actually, you got that logic completely wrong. We didn't take advantage of the developers, our client did. They knew they could hold us to a given price because what were we to do, turn down the job??

Now the punch line: We displaced an H1-B and offshore Indian company. They sucked, did a lousy job, and they were charging and arm and a leg. That's right, we displaced an Indian firm.

The Americans did a FAR better job at half the cost. That's right, again, HALF the cost. The client had only a few bucks left and the indian company wasn't going to finish on time or budget. They were already 300% over budget.

More and more companie are finding that the Indian firms suck. They charge far more than they are worth. They usually use six week wonders to do the coding, and it shows. They change control everything into cost overruns. They also have an extremely top heavy managment style, and they can't spell in English worth a damn.

[Poohbah]

More and more companie are finding that the Indian firms suck. They charge far more than they are worth. They usually use six week wonders to do the coding, and it shows. They change control everything into cost overruns. They also have an extremely top heavy managment style, and they can't spell in English worth a damn.

Sounds like the problem is self-correcting.

[PatrioticAmerican]

I've never seen THAT big a cut. Most ever is about 50%. Many are taking 30% cuts.

[PatrioticAmerican]

It might be. If the Indian firms continue on and the American firms continue to adjust properly, we might very well see the end of offshore development. One LARGE company has already closed most of their overseas operations due to these problems.