I think a balkanization of Iraq is a strong possibility.
Posted on 04/16/2003 9:31:55 PM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
NAJAF, Iraq — In this holiest of Muslim Shiite cities, clerics are running a self-declared government. It's the same in nearby Karbala, another sacred Shiite city.
Muslim Shiite clerics have in the past week moved swiftly to fill the power void created by Saddam Hussein's ouster — appointing governors, imposing curfews, offering protection, jobs, health care and giving financial assistance to the needy.
In some respects, they have replaced Saddam as Iraq's new leadership.
Ominously, they distrust the Americans who rid them of Saddam's tyranny and have little faith in the opposition leaders now returning to Iraq from years in exile. They also question whether Western democratic values are suited for their country.
And, they seem unwilling to surrender authority to a central government they don't like.
Shiites make up 60% of Iraq's 24 million people, but have traditionally been pushed to the political sidelines by members of Islam's mainstream Sunni sect, of which Saddam is a member. They have long complained of religious persecution under Saddam and erupted in jubilation at his downfall, practicing their rituals in public for the first time in years.
Scores of Shiite pilgrims can now be seen walking on highways and country roads to Najaf and Karbala, carrying the black flags that mourn the 7th century "martyrdom" of al-Hussein, one of the sect's most revered saints. Al-Hussein's shrine is in Karbala, while his father, Imam Ali, son-in-law of Islam's Prophet Muhammad, is buried in Najaf.
Such instant Shiite empowerment could reverberate in an Iraq whose social and political fabric is fragile in the aftermath of war and the removal of a president whose iron-fist policies held the country together. It also could provoke a Sunni backlash or spark inter-Shiite violence when the sect's factions are vying for position in a new order.
In today's Iraq, the power of the "al-Hawza al-Ilmiya" — an Arabic phrase that roughly means the supreme seat of Shiite learning — is second only to that of U.S. forces. It is something of a magic phrase that has become associated with authority or government.
Sheik Abbas al-Rabia'i, a 42-year-old Shiite cleric who has just come out of four years in hiding from Saddam's fearsome security apparatus, is a hard-line cleric with blind loyalty to the al-Hawza al-Ilmiya.
Squatting on the floor of a tiny house on a back alley in Najaf, he said the al-Hawza would be prepared to surrender power to a government the people approve of, but hastened to add: "It must be a government that has been freely elected and is not under any foreign influence."
"We don't say anything or do anything without the approval of the al-Hawza. We are only foot soldiers," said al-Rabia'i.
The extent of al-Hawza's influence is perhaps best manifested by orders it issued this week. Posted on the outer wall of Karbala's al-Hussein Mosque, one of the holiest Shiite shrines, it orders the city's Shiites not to organize marches without its prior approval and bans anyone from joining a political party without its permission.
"It's absolutely forbidden to speak to news agencies," says another order. "When something happens, don't act. Wait for instructions from al-Hawza," says another.
Sheik Mohanad al-Assadi is a 28-year-old Shiite scholar in Karbala. On Wednesday, he met with Youssef al-Haboubi, the long-serving civil servant appointed governor of Karbala by the al-Hawza this week, to discuss city affairs. Before him, he conferred with a doctor, police officers and ordinary people who sought his help to find jobs. He has bodyguards, a precaution after two senior clerics were killed by an angry crowd in Najaf last week.
"Al-Hawza is not contemplating the permanent assumption of executive power through it own members," he explains in a soft voice at the Spartan al-Mokheim Mosque in Karbala. "We have those whom we trust to do this for us."
Assadi used diplomatic language to express his views on Iraq's opposition returnees, saying that while senior Shiite clerics appreciated their efforts, "justice" must be done for those who stayed in Iraq and endured Saddam's oppression.
Al-Rabia'i was more blunt.
He said many Iraqis would be uncomfortable with the rule of politicians who had spent decades abroad. "Many of them want to introduce Western democratic systems that don't suit us here. We have a people here who suffered so much for so long they cannot accept imported ideas."
You and 4/5th of the entire rest of the world!
Except Islam never intends to be an interim authority.
I think a balkanization of Iraq is a strong possibility.
I dare say that if the shoe was on the other foot not many here would disagree with his statement.
I'll wait to see what the Iraqi PEOPLE have to say, not a bunch of psychoreligious wannabe tyrants.
Islam is a gift-wrapped, suicide bomb sanctification program.
It got them rid of Saddam, what else do they want? Pay debts to the Talebans and Ayatola? Right, sounds like a good deal for the "free" muslim.
No panic. As you said, this is normal and predictable. "Manageable" remains the open question, however, as Islam's History indicates otherwise, without exception.
By all means, though, the experiement should continue. We'll all be edified, whatever the result.
I wonder if this concept rules out the restoration of the Hashimite monarchy? That would be my number one preference.
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