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Posted on 04/09/2003 6:13:03 PM PDT by Axion
Rumors of Hussein's Exile Circulate Summary
Apr 09, 2003 - 2137 GMT
Rumors are circulating that Saddam Hussein may have fled into exile. We have no confirmation of this but continue to investigate. In the meantime, the degree of coordination evidenced in continued resistance in Iraq will indicate whether an Iraqi command authority remains.
Analysis
For the past couple of days, Stratfor has received rumors that Moscow was trying to broker an end to the war in Iraq. We looked on such rumors skeptically -- partly because of the potential biases of the sources, partly because the allegations were inherently unverifiable and partly because even if Russia tried to broker a deal, there were many reasons for Washington and Baghdad to reject it.
That trickle of rumors has increased today, as networks broadcast images of cheering crowds and toppling statues in Baghdad. The images from Baghdad have not in themselves caused us to reconsider our skepticism, but we are now receiving very similar stories from multiple distinct sources, as well as a smattering of facts that could feasibly support the allegation that a deal was struck.
Sources in Damascus claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin has brokered a deal with U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice, whereby Saddam Hussein would surrender Baghdad without resistance. Others allegedly involved in the deal include Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri Hadithi, the Russian ambassadors in Damascus and Baghdad and Iraqi ambassadors in Moscow and Damascus. French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder also reportedly know of the deal. The former Iraqi leadership reportedly arrived in Damascus late April 8. Most senior members of the former leadership reportedly did not stay in Damascus but left immediately for Moscow.
Sources close to the Jordanian government report that the CIA struck a deal with Hussein to allow him exile in Russia, in return for capitulation in Iraq. Iraqi opposition groups have claimed that Hussein escaped Baghdad as well.
Sources in the Russian government and military report that, though Moscow has the technical capability to carry out such an operation, it has not brokered exile for Hussein, nor will it. They report that the Iraqi leader does not trust Russian President Vladimir Putin, feeling he betrayed Iraq by not facilitating its defense. Putin, meanwhile, is committed to salvaging his status as junior partner with the United States. The sources claim that individuals in Russia could not carry out such an operation because the technical and diplomatic requirements are too great.
However, Russian sources do report that Hussein had prepared several ways out of Iraq long before the war, possibly in cooperation with Arab governments such as that in Syria. They note that escape from Baghdad is not inconceivable: The U.S. ring around the city is thin, and there are tunnels underneath the city that run for dozens of miles and lead to distant locations. They add that there is no evidence Hussein was in Baghdad when the U.S. troops arrived, and they believe he is or was operating from a command bunker outside Baghdad and not in Tikrit.
Major media have been playing "where's Saddam" as well, and in response, U.S. officials have denied that Hussein is at the Russian Embassy in Baghdad, as has Russia. U.S officials denied Hussein is en route to Syria, but Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld did say in an April 9 press conference that some senior Iraqi officials were fleeing to Syria.
Clearly, the Iraqi regime has ceased to operate as a government in Baghdad. Ministry officials did not show up to work on April 9, and Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammed al-Douri, stated just before slamming the door on reporters at his New York residence that he has no contact with his government, "the war is over," and that "I hope peace prevails."
We continue to have only rumors. We continue to seek confirmation. In the meantime, whether Hussein is in Iraq or even alive, elements of the former regime may still resist. They may do so in Baghdad or in areas of northern Iraq still under Iraqi control. The degree of coordination exhibited in this resistance will indicate whether a command authority remains in Iraq.
Baloney. An attempt by the Syrians to explain away the collapse and start a Cult of the Risen Saddam.
STRATFOR has 'borrowed' an analysis from Teheran Times
Copyright violation? By whom?
I've kept an eye on Stratfor fairly closely since 9/11, and I'd estimate their batting average to be about on par with Garth Brooks' (in his stint in the minors).
Seriously though, they made a very bold prediction that relations between Israel and the U.S. would suffer incredibly, possibly to the point of breaking off relations entirely. Wishful thinking on their part, I suppose. Monumental stupidity over there. Their reports read like poly sci grad students with a chip on their shoulder.
"Alleged" and "reported" by whom? Always the "unnamed" sources. These guys are all a bunch of 007 wannabes.
More bullshit. Perhaps a few members of a few groups made that claim, but there are many such groups, and they don't speak as a whole.
Wasn't Poppy Bush the director of the CIA in the past?
This is starting to make some sense...
I think Putin was head of the outfit that followed the KGB, to be precise.
It never made any sense to me that Putin would sacrifice an enormously valuable relationship with the US for a few billion dollars worth of oil contracts. It didn't make much sense to me that the Bush administration would publicly rip Chirac and Schroeder for taking the same line as Putin, and yet leave Putin unscathed. It did, however, make perfect sense to me that we would leverage Moscow's long-standing relationship with Saddam to set up some kind of safety valve arrangement with Putin, in order to contain the downside risk of confronting Saddam.
It remains to be seen if this scenario describes what has come to pass, but there are a number of indications that it may be. BTW, I heard an ABC News report about an hour ago which stated that administration sources are now saying Saddam was seen being driven away from the target of the last bombing: in other words, they are retiring the we-hit-him story and realigning their story with the Brits' story. We surely had better know where Saddam is -- if he simply disappears with an attache case full of who knows what, that would be a very bad outcome for us, no matter what the situation is in Iraq. Somehow, though, I have a feeling that we know where he is, and that isn't going to be a problem.
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