He may not be dead, but may be seriously injured.
If he could address his people, all he would have to do is hold up a Calendar, point to today's date and time, and we get a voice analysis...to confirm it's him.
It's not being done, so he is indisposed, at the least.
sw
This would appear to be a dumb move on the part of the Iraqis. Saying he would show, then he doesn't. The people have got to be let down (or relieved!). If I were there, I would think he is either dead, and all is lost, or he is dead and the good times are just around the corner!