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Thanks for the statistics. This disease is clearly no laughing matter. Nor is it a trumped up scare story. It is certainly not a clever way to sell more newspapers.

It is important to understand that most of the numbers being bandied around in typical news reports simply add up the total number of real/suspected victims, and then compare that to the total of deaths. The resulting number seems to be a low enough percentage to keep people from getting too alarmed (which may be why they report it this way).

However, the REAL statistics have to be based on what happens to an existing group of patients after the disease has run its course through the group. The statistics you provided for Hong Kong can be used as a starting point for this type of analysis.

Based on your statistics, if all 45 in intensive care die, and none of the others, the mortality rate would be 13.2%. I don't know what their chances actually are when this level of care is available, but ALL of the intensive care patients would die if this level of care were not available.

Hence, a starting point estimate for the mortality rate if the medical system is overwhelmed can be assumed to be 13.2%. This may be skewed upwards by under-reporting of mild cases (meaning 13.2% would be too high).

Not everyone who is exposed will actually get the disease. For instance, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918/19 supposedly afflicted only 25% of the U.S. population.

So... Applying a set of preliminary assumptions:
1. 25% of the population eventually gets SARS.
2. Enough people are hospitalized to overwhelm the medical system.
3. 50% of the current cases are missed because they are too mild to need urgent care. This would mean the 13.2% mortality figure above should actually be 6.6%.
4. Simple Calculation: 25% times 6.6% times 280,000,000 people gives 4.6 million deaths in the United States.

Part of the way I make my living involves a LOT of mathematical analysis. The above assumptions and resulting estimate are all supportable, but that does NOT mean this is what will actually happen.

REPEAT: I am NOT saying this will happen. But it is easy to see why the medical establishment is taking this thing so seriously. The best time to stop this is NOW.

Half measures at this point are a very bad idea.