[Goodlife]

I dunno if I agree.

Consider that this germ has been "out of the box" and really has never been quarantined, no matter what anyone has said. It's turned up on Hong Kong schools, hits hospitals pretty hard, etc.

That was the revelation on March 15th. Now it's March 24th, and we're look at 4x cases. In ten days if it was as wildly virulent and some people think, I'd expect to be EVERYWHERE. Every person infecting everyone else... there'd be no end of cases. It wouldn't be 400 probably cases, it'd be 400,000.

So I think I buy the "close contact" theory...

[Mother Abigail]

In ten days if it was as wildly virulent and some people think, I'd expect to be EVERYWHERE.

Here is what we learned from Singapore:

Original: 3 cases

Four to five days later: 21 people infected by the 3

Four to five days later: 41 people infected by the 21

In ten days you only have two cycles of transmission/symptoms

These are not good numbers

[theFIRMbss]

>In ten days if it was as wildly virulent and some people think, I'd expect to be EVERYWHERE. Every person infecting everyone else... there'd be no end of cases.

I hope you are right.
But I'm afraid you are wrong.
I've done some (groundless!)

extrapolations
based on the rough, incomplete
numbers that are out.

My very rough runs
show a million US hits
within just six months.

Self-replicating
systems are slow and steady
and they win the race...