A few weeks ago I saw Ollie North on Fox attributing the assassination of Abu Nidal last summer in Baghdad to the Israelis. You might remember that, after that event, a variety of mutually contradictory "authoritative" reports appeared, most attributing the death of Nidal to his paymaster, Saddam, for various hard-to-believe reasons. You might also remember President Bush's remarks when he was asked about the assassination while vacationing at his ranch -- remarks which seemed both cocky and cryptic. When the story of this war is finally told, the key operations will, I suspect, be special ops on the ground over the past 18 months, culminating in the still mysterious event which opened hostilities a few days ago. Bush hinted as much to Bob Woodward last year:
As we walked back, Bush again brought up Iraq. His blueprint or model for decision making in any war against Iraq, he told me, could be found in the story I was attempting to tell--the first months of the war in Afghanistan and the largely invisible CIA covert war against terrorism worldwide."You have the story," he said. Look hard at what you've got, he seemed to be saying. It was all there if it was pieced together--what he had learned, how he had settled into the presidency, his focus on larger goals, how he made decisions, why he provoked his war cabinet and pressured people for action.
I was straining to understand the meaning of this. At first his remark and what he had said before seemed to suggest he was leaning towards an attack on Iraq. Earlier in the interview, however, he had said, "I'm the kind of person that wants to make sure that all risk is assessed. But a president is constantly analyzing, making decisions based upon risk, particularly in war--risk taken relative to what can be achieved." What he wanted to achieve seemed clear. He wanted Saddam out.
Before he got back to his truck, Bush added another piece to the Iraqi puzzle. He had not yet seen a successful plan for Iraq, he said. He had to be careful and patient.
"A president, he added, "likes to have a military plan that will be successful."