Bush Lead Over Potential Democratic Challengers Fades, Gore Surfaces as the Leading Contender

Zogby ^ | 3/18/03

[areafiftyone]

President George W. Bush would win re-election over most of his potential Democratic opponents, according to a Zogby America poll of 1,129 likely voters conducted March 14-15.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.0%.

The president enjoys a majority or near-majority of support against all contenders, although the election is 20 months away.  He has an average 12-point lead over the current leaders in polling: Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (50%-38%), Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (50%-38%), and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (49%-36%).

Compared to similar polling January 4-6, 2003 of 1,001 likely voters, the gap appears to be closing.  In that poll, Bush numbers were in the mid-50s, and his Democratic opponents were in the low 30s, a 24-point lead compared to his current 12 points.  He would have bested Kerry 54%-31%, Lieberman 55%-31%, Gephardt 55%-31%, and SD Senator Thomas Daschle, 54%-30%.  Daschle announced on January 7 that he would not be a candidate in the 2004 election. 

Bush also has at least a 20-point lead over the next tier of potentials: former Colorado Senator Gary Hart (54%-31%), North Carolina Senator John Edwards (51%-32%), former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (52%-31%), former Illinois Senator and Ambassador Carol Mosley Braun (54%-30%), civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton (58%-25%), former NATO Commander General Wesley Clark (52%-28%), and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich (52%-26%).  Clark has not yet declared his candidacy, but is touted as a potential candidate.

Two other prominent Democrats who have not yet thrown their hats into the ring, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore, also fall short in a theoretical match-up against President Bush:  he would best both Clinton (53%-39%) and Gore (51%-42%), although Gore comes closer than any other Democrat, declared or undeclared.

President Bush’s job performance rating has remained steady in recent Zogby America polls, with 54% of likely voters saying it is excellent or good, and 46% grading it fair or poor.  Nearly half (48%) of respondents say they feel the country is headed in the right direction, while 44% say it is going in the wrong direction, and 8% are not sure.

[areafiftyone]

I think Zogby better take some more meds!!

[boomop1]

Should have been a humor post.

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Very odd. I woke up from a dream in the middle of the night last night, and Gore was the contender to Bush in 2004. He still lost, but he was the one the Dems finally settled on.

[el_texicano]

"I think Zogby better take some more meds!!"

That may be the problem. Whatever he's takin' gotta be illegal cause it's working way too good.

These guys hate Bush so much they will stop at nothing to try to create/shape public opinion.

[GraniteStateConservative]

No, that's about right. Mar 14 was the day that diplomacy with the UN failed. It made Bush look weak. The Azores summit and the speech last night let him recover from the stumble. Besides, these are great numbers considering the war hasn't started and we haven't liberated Iraq, yet-- and the economy is still growing at a snail's pace (with high gas prices).

[finnman69]

President George W. Bush would win re-election over most of his potential Democratic opponents, according to a Zogby America poll of 1,129 likely voters conducted March 14-15.

Should this not say "win re-election over ALL of his potential Democratic opponents"?

[Thane_Banquo]

Zogby predicted a Democratic victory in the '02 elections.

[OPS4]

Zogby is always coming up with Polls that do not agree with
President Bush!

Gore got out and he will stay out because the people know he is an idiot! The man who invented the internet.LOL

Zogby should move back to his mole whole.

Ops4 God Bles America!

[Paul Atreides]

Pardon me whilst I control my hysterical laughter.

[LS]

Yah. Ol' Zogs ought to take this poll in a week or two.

[CatoRenasci]

I don't buy the notion Gore would do the best of any democrat, I don't know anyone/b> who thinks we'd be better off if Gore were President. And I live in the New York metropolitan area, most of the people I know are liberal democrats. They don't like Bush at all, but they sure don't think Gore is competent to be president now.

[areafiftyone]

The Democreeps sure miss Gore!!! I have this wierd feeling they may get him to run after all.

[paguch]

Keep in mind Zogby is an Arab and he has a way of influencing public opinion. I will no longer answer his surveys.

[Joe Boucher]

Gore can't even win in his home state.
Who wrote this crap? Tipper the whale.

[JeepInMazar]

I better start polishing my bullhorn (of "get out of Cheney's house fame).

[Sloth]

Very odd. I woke up from a dream in the middle of the night last night, and Gore was the contender to Bush in 2004. He still lost, but he was the one the Dems finally settled on.

I'm glad I'm not the only person that has disturbing dreams about Al Gore... lol

[Truthinator]

I agree. If these polls are taken in two weeks, or a year from now, Bush will probably be in the high fifties or low sixties while his competitors will have gained no ground or lost some. Zogby is generally a good pollster. It's hard to fault him for '02. So many races were too close to call that even though Reps won nationally, some of the expected winners lost and vice versa. It was a goofy mid-term.

[Conspiracy Guy]

When Gore emerged did he see his shadow? I can never remember if the shadow means next election or 6 more elections.

[areafiftyone]

The same people who have a Draft Gore petition going. The same jerks who have not gotten over the 2000 presidential election. Alot of those Democreeps don't like the choices they have and want to draft Al Gore!

[CatoRenasci]

I thought he was so frightened of his own shadow he didn't see it. I hope that means it'll be six more elections before we see him again.