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To: rwfromkansas
What does it mean?

I would like to know the following:

1. How is this thing spread?
2. Is it a virus, bacteria, or other?
3. Has anyone gotten better? (I know many are still in hospital)
4. Is this a mutation or completely new?
5. Could this be bioterrorism (likely, not likely, etc)

128 posted on 03/18/2003 11:12:54 AM PST by Snowy (My golden retriever can lick your honor student)
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To: Snowy
"I would like to know the following:"

I'll try to answer your questions, based on what I've seen about this thing. I'm not a doctor or anything, but I've followed the coverage.

"1. How is this thing spread?"

It appear it is being spread much like flu, by fluid or vapor from an infected person coughing or sneezing, breathed in by somebody else.

2. Is it a virus, bacteria, or other?

It appear to be a virus. There are no reports of antibiotics helping against it, which fits a virus and not a bacteria.

"3. Has anyone gotten better? (I know many are still in hospital)"

Undoubtedly, since the incubation period is said to be only 3 to 10 days, and the outbreak first began last November - although Chinese authorities didn't say anything about it until recently. The point being, those infected early have certainly gone through the whole cycle of the illness by now.

"4. Is this a mutation or completely new?" Since nobody has isolated the actual virus responsible, nobody can say for certain. But the question doesn't make all that much sense. Almost all new bugs - flu like viruses in particular - are mutations of some existing one. Either that, or they are existing bugs that have jumped from animal infections to human infections, with or without accompanying mutation.

"5. Could this be bioterrorism (likely, not likely, etc)"

It is not likely. It is possible, simply because we are at war, in terror alert "orange", and some have tried to use bio based weapons on us already, others have declared intentions along those lines, etc. So it isn't crazy to consider that possibility. And the Chinese have not been exactly forthcoming about what is going on, which fuels rumors. By far the most likely thing, though, is that this is a new version of an "Asian flu", something seen from time to time.

The main arguments against thinking it any sort of bio weapon are (1) it spread first in China, hardly a likely target rather than "shooter" and (2) the mortality isn't very high. If it is in any way related to bio weapons, it would seem to be a mistake or "escapee", and something of a "fizzle" as to impact. Both of which fit a natural event rather better than a bio weapon incident. Since nobody has yet isolated the actual critter, though, it is all speculation at this point.

I hope this helps.

275 posted on 03/18/2003 4:39:51 PM PST by JasonC
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