Honk Kong Health Secretary calls for calm as SARS cases double, (83 up from 42 on Sunday)

IOL ^ | 03-17-03

[Mother Abigail]

  Mysterious pneumonia outbreak doubles

March 17 2003 at 12:07PM

Hong Kong's health chief on Monday appealed for calm after revealing that the number of people struck down with a mysterious outbreak of pneumonia had nearly doubled to 83.

Health Secretary, Yeoh Eng-kiong said in a press briefing that 83 people were confirmed as having atypical pneumonia, up from 42 on Sunday. A further 12 people were under observation.

"The figure is alarming," Yeoh said. "This is time for calm and not panic."

He said the surge in confirmed cases was explained by the fact that health officials had tracked down a patient suffering from the disease, who had previously thought to be suffering only from a fever. 'There is no sign that the disease has spread to the community'Yeoh said the latest figures included 16 medical students and 23 close relatives of patients, again stressing that the outbreak had not spread to the wider community.

"Hong Kong is a safe place, and there is no sign that the disease has spread to the community," said Yeoh. The disease named by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has left four people dead in Asia and Canada and infected over 150 others, mostly medical workers, in the past week.

The flu-like symptoms appear to be similar to those of a sickness in southern China's Guangdong province in mid-February that infected 305 people, killing five of them.

The latest victims were a nurse in Hanoi and two members of a Canadian family who died in hospital in Toronto following a recent visit to Hong Kong. Four other family members and a friend are also ill. - Sapa-AFP

[Boundless]

> what is the chance this bug has been engineered?

Just an uninformed opinion, but "not high".

So far, this has presented as a classical China-sourced
flu virus, more virulent than most, but within expected
variations.

There are reports, which may not be credible, that the
effects are more severe among Asians. If the Chinese
has engineered it, you'd expect the opposite.

If it's a bio-war bug, it appears that it would have to
be from some country that:
* doesn't have a large Asian population
* has a bio-war program
* has it in for China
* had a way to smuggle the agent deep into China
* thinks they won't get caught once the CDC has reverse-engineered it

I'm willing to be mistaken, but so far this looks natural. In any
case, the steps we need to take here are the same regardless.

[CathyRyan]

Om ProMED CJ Peters says they have not been able to pin this down yet.

[ksen]

Uh oh, from Health24:

Jumping the continents

Canada has now reported 9 cases; Hanoi has reported at least 42 cases; Hong Kong has reported 49, including 42 medical workers; Taipei reported three people hospitalised with flu-like symptoms, and Singapore's toll has jumped to 20.

Singapore's Ministry of Health said Sunday that three Singapore residents who were in Hong Kong returned home ill and infected 10 family members and friends along with seven hospital workers who treated them, according to the The New York Times.

One of the newest cases, in Frankfurt, Germany, involves a Singapore doctor who was quarantined, along with his wife and mother-in-law, after flying out of New York City, where he had attended a medical conference. And on Sunday, news reports say a person who travelled from Georgia to Canada may also have been stricken.

A worldwide health threat

The WHO advisory, sent Saturday to all airlines, warned that the illness was becoming "a worldwide health threat."

"Until we can get a grip on it, I don't see how it will slow down," WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said at the agency's headquarters in Geneva. "People are not responding to antibiotics or antivirals; it's a highly contagious disease, and it's moving around by jet. It's bad."

The CDC moved into emergency mode Saturday to alert health authorities at state and local levels.

[CathyRyan]

Om = On

BUMP

[TaxRelief]

So, if this bug was engineered, why was it test fired in China??? Why does the bug weaken each time it is passed from host to host??? How has it survived, if it is weakening? Wouldn't it just stop existing?

[Mother Abigail]

Monday, March 17, 2003 11:58:13 p.m

 Mystery disease hits OFWs in Singapore
By CHER JIMENEZ
TODAY Reporter

Five Filipino workers in Singapore, 4 of them nurses, were found suffering from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or atypical pneumonia after direct contacts with patients, the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) said Monday.

Labor Undersecretary Manuel Imson said the nurses are working at the Tantock Seng Hospital in Singapore while the other one is husband to one of the nurses.

"We are in touch with our embassies and we are asking the Philippine Overseas Labor Office (POLO) to look at similar health cases among Filipinos workers," said Imson.

[Mother Abigail]

SINGAPORE, March 17 (Bernama) -- A healthcare worker in Singapore is the latest to be infected with a typical pneumonia, now known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), bringing the number of infected victims to 21.

Singapore's Health Ministry said today all patients were stable except for two who were in serious condition. Both are in the Intensive Care Unit.

[Mother Abigail]

"The disease seemed to weaken as it passed from person to person."

Might this suggest that humans are not the natural host of this organism and attenuation of the organism occurs with successive passage in humans???? (at the risk of an unfounded speculation....)

[doc30]

Health Secretary, Yeoh Eng-kiong said in a press briefing that 83 people were confirmed as having atypical pneumonia, up from 42 on Sunday.

Assuming that these numbers represent the rate of infection, almost 3000 people could be infected in that location alone this weekend. Very frightening.

No imagine the nightmare scenario. THis stuff does get into the U.S. and spreads like crazy. COuld there be a social meltdown as panic and hysteria grow? If that does happen, don't forget that half the U.S. forces in Iraq are Reservists and National Guardsmen. Are there enough guardsmen here to help maintain order if this disease becomes a true epidemic? After all, this is who traditionally has been called upon in situations of national emergency.

[Mother Abigail]

Yes the rate of transmission seems very high at this point.

But let's be cautious about speculation - the next 48 hours will give us a better understanding of virulence and scope..

[mewzilla]

Actually, the weakening makes a lot of sense. I know a lot of folks around here hate the "e" word, evolution, but think about it. If the bug kills its host before the host has a chance to pass along the bug, the bug flames out. It's in the bug's best interests to be mild enough to allow for its hosts to transmit it, which is a lot harder for hosts to do if they're flat on their backs. Maybe this bug, whatever it is, will mutate into something easier to be dealt with.

[CathyRyan]

But let's be cautious about speculation - the next 48 hours will give us a better understanding of virulence and scope.

Good Counsel :)

[snickeroon]

Freepers:
Suggest you go to the promedmail.org site for timely updates... but according to posted information "incubation runs from two to five days. Symptoms can include: fever and malaise, sore throat, headache, rash and muscle pain. Several patients have also had gastrointestinal upset and diarrhea.

Respiratory symptoms were common to ALL cases (although these symptoms occured later in the illness in some). Death results from respiratory failure

Health officials say it may be several more days before they are able to identify the disease:

"Certainly influenza is on the minds of many people," said Dr. David Heymann, communicable diseases chief for the World Health Organization. Lab tests have ruled out some varieties of flu as well as some viruses that cause hemorrhagic fever. However, many other possibilities remain, Heymann said.

Those include "a new strain of influenza" or such exotic diseases as the closely related Hendra and Nipah viruses both newly recognized, causing flu-like symptoms and capable of being spread from animals to people. Investigators suspect a virus is involved, because victims do not seem to respond well to standard antibiotics, which kill only bacteria, and because their white blood counts drop. That typically happens with viral infections but not bacterial ones.

PLEASE NOTE: Experts discounted the possibility that terrorism is the source (personally, I don't....yet....) and believe it almost certainly is a contagious infection that spreads most easily from victims to their doctors, nurses and families through coughing, sneezing and other contact with nasal fluids. "Nothing about that pattern suggests bioterrorism," said Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

Officials said they are encouraged that some recent victims seem to be recovering, although they are unsure whether that is because of the many antibiotic and antiviral drugs they have been given or simply the natural course of the disease.

Tests so far have also ruled out the H5N1 bird flu, which has popped up occasionally in China which many fear could be catastrophic if it spread widely among humans.

No cases have been confirmed in the United States, but Gerberding said the CDC is checking out a few calls. The North American fatalities were a woman
and her son who died in Toronto after visiting Hong Kong.

Patients deteriorate quickly after initially coming down with simple flu-like symptoms, doctors say."

(Still, the symptoms sure sound similar to the anthrax attacks we had after 9/11 don't they?....with the exception that this is obviously contagious).

[Mother Abigail]

That would be a good thing..

[Domestic Church]

Just conjecture:

If its bio warefare and originating from China (where it would function as population control, one of their domestic interests) it would be strategic to have it start there under appearance of being an asian flu. Also, they might have the antidote to give out in certain sectors which would allow for the flu mortality pattern to initially be presented while it is spread. The timing of this infection is suspect.

It is noteworthy that this possibility would place the imminent war on a totally different and much broader battle field.

[Domestic Church]

We don't know if it is weakening as the number of cases are too low for real info on that. Also it would be strategic for China to have it begin on home turf *if* (a BIG if) it is biowarefare.

[Domestic Church]

Isn't the Phillipines one of China's longterm targets?

[Domestic Church]

Isn't the Phillipines one of China's longterm targets?

[Mother Abigail]

20 minutes ago

FRANKFURT, Germany - The pregnant wife of a Singapore doctor suspected of having a mysterious new form of Asian pneumonia developed a low-grade fever and a sore throat Monday, doctors at a Frankfurt hospital said.

 The 30-year-old woman; her husband, a 32-year-old doctor, and her mother, 62, were taken off a weekend flight from New York and admitted to the isolation ward of Frankfurt's University Clinic after he started showing symptoms.
Later Monday, doctors in the eastern city of Leipzig said they had taken two young German women into quarantine on suspicion they may also have contracted the disease while visiting Vietnam and Singapore independently of one another.

The two were showing signs of a respiratory infection and remained in stable condition at the St. Georg Clinic in Leipzig, said the hospital's infections expert, Dr. Bernhard Ruf. He declined to elaborate, but said one of the women returned two days ago from a trip to Vietnam and the other came home a week ago from Singapore.

Ruf also said two U.S. citizens who were on Saturday's flight from New York with the doctor being held in Frankfurt — along with two other Germans from the same plane — were being held in isolation at the clinic as a precaution. None of the four have shown any indications of illness, he said.
Doctors in Frankfurt were awaiting further lab tests on the doctor, believed the first person in Europe to be infected with the disease.

This is not good news

[Mother Abigail]

Eleven laboratories across 10 countries are racing to identify the cause of a mysterious form of pneumonia, which has killed four people in Canada and Southeast Asia, World Health Organisation (WHO) experts said on Monday.

"These are the world's best laboratories working together to see if they can find a diagnosis for this disease," David Heymann, WHO's executive director for communicable diseases, told reporters.