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BioTerrorism Analysis: Weaponsized Infectious Disease and Emerging Disease
Various | 3-17-03 | Bones McCoy

Posted on 03/16/2003 7:35:29 PM PST by bonesmccoy

BioTerrorism Analysis: Weaponsized Infectious Disease and Emerging Disease (A Free Republic Technical Analysis)

About five weeks ago, I started a technical thread that analyzed the space shuttle disaster which killed an international flight crew and lead to wreckage over the southwestern United States. In that thread, we had a remarkable range of technical and analytical skills which this website brought to bear. Because we are anonymous, we can pursue fact without fear of the liberals killing our careers or worse. Tonight, I seek to create a thread on a more serious national security problem, biological weapons of mass destruction and emerging infectious diseases.

The use of weapons of mass destruction had previously been limited due to the inability of other nations to build nuclear fission or fusion weapons. The construction of biological or chemical weapons may not be as technically challenging.

Subsequent to the attacks at WTC, the national security command structure has appropriately realigned US federal policy to reflect the vulnerability of our nation. Use of civilian systems as a vehicle for military-style attack and mass carnage has created significant economic damage in our nation. There is little question that the attacks of September 11, 2001, created a negative economic impact on our entire nation.

However, the negative economic impact of these attacks must be limited by the skill of the citizenry to respond. In particular, the US citizenry must not leave security up to others, we must take action ourselves in order to limit the damage of terror in our cities.

Use of agents of biological terror can create ripple effects that are more significant than the attacks of September 11, 2001. These effects will manifest in the economic impact of increased apprehension in the populace. Failure of our medical services to appropriately mobilize to react to threat will cause increased economic damage.

It is my opinion that our national leadership has not been fully briefed on the gravity of the situation.

While Tom Ridge and Tommy Thompson are making difficult decisions and working diligently to restructure our federal government in the wake of 9-11-01, it is obvious that the public health system is NOT reacting to the threat of BW use by Iraq. The slow response of public health authorities to the release of small pox vaccine by the White House is testimony to the amount of political inertia in the public health system. This inertia appears to be politically motivated. Meanwhile, the private medical system has little fiscal or economic defense against biological attack. If it were not for the President's advocacy for terrorism insurance, we would not have ANY protection whatsoever.

Response to a biological attack requires the following:
1. A confident work force that can mobilize in the face of the attack.
2. An orderly work process that can process hundreds of casualties in a few hours time.
3. Maintenance of social order to insure that civilian enterprises (both governmental and privately owned) can continue to function in the economy.

If social order can not be maintained, the economy will suffer additional damage which will ripple through our nation.


TOPICS: Anthrax Scare; Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Front Page News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: anthrax; biologicalweapon; biowarfare; botulism; hantavirus; jihadinamerica
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In the remainder of the thread, we will begin discussing various biological agents and their effects. The website that reflects currently federal governmental response is the cdc.gov site. The US Centers for Disease Control organizes the federal public health response to biological threats.

The CDC has categorized infectious agents at their website (http://www.bt.cdc.gov/Agent/agentlist.asp).

Rather than recreating an explanation of each biological agent, we should suggest that readers review the CDC website.

I am starting this thread to analyze the economic impact of an attack.

We should analyze the following parameters:
1. Rate of spread of contagious disease
2. Economic impact of contagious diseases
3. How would we distinguish a biological attack from a "naturally" occuring disease pattern?
4. How would civilian response patterns be affected by a biological assault?
5. Are US population centers ready for a biological assault and can we mobilize a response in time?

1 posted on 03/16/2003 7:35:29 PM PST by bonesmccoy
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To: bonesmccoy
proactive bump
2 posted on 03/16/2003 7:37:13 PM PST by ewing
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To: bonesmccoy
I have no technical knowledge to provide, but I will be reading your thread with much interest. BTTT
3 posted on 03/16/2003 7:38:50 PM PST by Aggie Mama
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To: bonesmccoy
bump for later review ....
4 posted on 03/16/2003 7:38:53 PM PST by Centurion2000 (Take charge of your destiny, or someone else will)
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To: bonesmccoy
A true bio attack will pretty much crash the economy, as people will be afraid to leave their homes and interact for a period of weeks as the infections burn out. It would be an unreasonably severe depression.
5 posted on 03/16/2003 7:40:33 PM PST by Chancellor Palpatine (those who unilaterally beat their swords into plowshares wind up plowing for those who don't)
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To: Centurion2000
Bumping also, as I am watching the SARS with heightened interest...
6 posted on 03/16/2003 7:42:23 PM PST by jacquej
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To: bonesmccoy
A MUST READ book is 'BioHazard' by Ken Alibek (a Russion Defecter).

As listed on the cover,,, this is "the chilling true story of the largest covert biological weapons program in the world - told from inside by the man who ran it".

When the Soviet Union broke up, some Russian Scientists involved in bioterror came to the USA, (and some went to Iraq!).

This book would convince anyone about the need to stop any bioterror program.

7 posted on 03/16/2003 7:42:37 PM PST by CharlotteVRWC
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To: bonesmccoy

8 posted on 03/16/2003 7:44:31 PM PST by The Great Satan (Revenge, Terror and Extortion: A Guide for the Perplexed)
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To: bonesmccoy
bfl
9 posted on 03/16/2003 7:45:30 PM PST by cmsgop ( Arby's says no more Horsey Sauce for Scott Ritter !!!!)
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To: bonesmccoy

10 posted on 03/16/2003 7:46:17 PM PST by The Great Satan (Revenge, Terror and Extortion: A Guide for the Perplexed)
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To: bonesmccoy

11 posted on 03/16/2003 7:47:17 PM PST by The Great Satan (Revenge, Terror and Extortion: A Guide for the Perplexed)
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To: bonesmccoy
This is going to be good. Bumped and Bookmarked.
12 posted on 03/16/2003 7:49:31 PM PST by ConservativeLawyer (God Bless our troops!)
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To: bonesmccoy
On Septembe 11, 2001, I wrote in this forum that we needed not only the "A Teams" which have the public's attention, but reserve "B" and "C" teams for domestic emergencies. We needed by the first weeked after the attack, a mustering of people at every county fairground of this nation, for the purpose of selecting any of these community services in the event of another emergency:

Fire and Rescue

Medical / Corpsman

Police

Road and Bridge Repair.

When a city is attacked, its workers are going to rush in, though some, now, are scheduled to remain at their posts. Still, we have thousands of communities which do not have backup, nor backup in strength.

Every city of several 10,000 or more in this country, should have the steel and wood structures available to build at least one major bridge and in a matter of two or three days. No city has done this.

Communities need backup fire equipment and rescue equipment, stored in reserve.

Outlying buildings should have medical supplies and food stored, clothing and shelter --- actually now, many do have this.

But overall, we are short of people who have volunteered to be trained on the weekends, for the services required.

Every major city in this country should have a complete reserve fire fighting and rescue team.

Every city should have a complete heavy equipment reserve team.

And all these reserve teams must train and practice for at least one whole weekend per month.

It's not happening.

13 posted on 03/16/2003 7:50:13 PM PST by First_Salute
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To: bonesmccoy
What's your gut feeling about SARS? Also, now that we're past the point of extreme hunger in China, why do all the major new flu and flu like diseases start there? If it was only poverty, starvation, and crowded conditions other areas are worse. Anyone?
14 posted on 03/16/2003 7:52:46 PM PST by GOPJ
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To: bonesmccoy
Here in Tennessee we have already trained (in addition to medical personell) 22 thousand additional , vaccinators , and facilitators. All our county school busses will be pressed into service to deliver everyone in the state to the proper vaccination center (schools , churches ect.) so all may be given vaccine\antibiotics within 8 days of notification of a need by any appropriate health organization. CDC, WHO or State Health Dept. can trigger the plan. I don't know how many states have prepared but here in my county we are as ready as I think possible.
15 posted on 03/16/2003 7:55:10 PM PST by ping jockey (A little less talk and a lot more MOAB's)
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To: bonesmccoy
IMO, if anyone wanted to truly damage an enemy long term, they would go after it's agriculture. Something which is best accomplished by biological agents.

OTOH, terrorism doesn't require a great deal of real damage to accomplish it's purpose, just a feeling of vulnerability and helplesness on the part of the public.

16 posted on 03/16/2003 7:56:38 PM PST by templar
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To: CharlotteVRWC
When the Soviet Union broke up, some Russian Scientists involved in bioterror came to the USA, (and some went to Iraq!).

Yes, if we find any of them still in Iraq, we should let our friends the Jordanians interrogate them. They should then be tried by military tribunals and executed as war criminals. We should put all former Soviet biowarfare researchers and technicians on notice that if they sell their knowledge to third countries, the CIA will hunt them down and kill them. Anyone selling WMD knowledge to rogue nations should have to constantly worry for his or her safety. They should be made to be so paranoid that they are afraid to turn the ingnition key in their cars for fear that it is rigged with explosives. I would apply this rule not only to Russian scientists, but also French and German ones too.

17 posted on 03/16/2003 8:00:51 PM PST by Paleo Conservative (This space left intentionally blank.)
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: templar
In recent years there have been strenuous efforts to contain outbreaks of foreign pests including the Mediteranean Fruit Fly, the Long-Horned Beetle, and a variety of rust that attacks wheat. The fruit fly, in particular, has had a very high dollar tag associated with it.
19 posted on 03/16/2003 8:05:28 PM PST by Lessismore
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To: bonesmccoy; *JIHAD IN AMERICA; Grampa Dave; Clovis_Skeptic; ladyinred; Brad's Gramma; veronica; ...
This should be a very interesting thread as it develops.

Here is a lengthy but important document which should be read by all!

Jihadis in the Hood
Race, Urban Islam and the War on Terror

JIHAD IN AMERICA:

To find all articles tagged or indexed using JIHAD IN AMERICA, click below:
  click here >>> JIHAD IN AMERICA <<< click here  
(To view all FR Bump Lists, click here)



20 posted on 03/16/2003 8:09:25 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Nuke Saddam ( Bush is thinking about it ) and then what about Germany and France?)
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