A Map - Of Where The Main Thrust Will Come From. --

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[jimlilko]

Desert Rats and SAS to play crucial roles in invasion-NTCU-30316_pix

[Dittohead_2]

as long as you are not Daniel Elsberg .... incognito

[jimlilko]

don't know who daniel eLLsburg is but I got this map from news.telegraph.co.uk ... At least he'll know we're coming... like Jesse Ventura RUNNING over pee-wee herman

[section9]

This is another garbage leak. You folks noticed a couple of big black arrows coming up from Kuwait? Yet the North is mysteriously absent, and there's nothing coming up from the southwest.

Sheesh. I hope Saddam's people buy into this bilge.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[hole_n_one]

......but I got this map from news.telegraph.co.uk

Then that's what should be placed in the source field rather than a link to simply the graphic that you've placed on your server.

[L`enn]

Did this not happen during GWI? All the maps showed one route, the actual route was totally different? Time-honored trick, was also used during D-day when everyone surmised Calais was the entry point.

[wretchard]

This is a fairly reasonable scenario, which anyone with a map will be drawn to. The main idea is that the US army will head north parallel to the Euphrates river water barrier until it comes level or north of Baghdad. Then it will turn east, presumably over river crossings seized by airmobile forces.

The Marines, with their lighter and more amphibious equipment, plus their beach assault training and doctrine, will head up the Euprates river valley on the east side. The Brits could either be assigned to the inner pincer and cross the Euphrates south of the US army thrust, or it could support the Marines.

Ideally, the US Army should turn east a little north of Baghdad in order to pin the Iraqui army against its own river line. They should then envelop Baghdad, without entering it.

The role for airmobile, apart from securing the river crossings, will be to block the roads east to Iran, to prevent flight by Iraqui units there. To this end, you will note the British have supplied their 16th Air Assault Brigade, which is conceptually similar to the 101st, but which is short on helicopters. But operationally, it means the 101st Airborne has four brigades, instead of three, which is good given the massive mission of the airmobile forces.

It's logical, but obvious. However, there's not much Saddam can do to stop it. His best chance is to annihilate one of the air assault groups to achieve mass casualties. Other than that, he lacks the mobility to challenge forces that can move faster than him.

A word about the water obstacles. The Tigris-Euphrates system is an exceptionally extensive, but shallow river network. By now, its many streams are filling up with melting snow. It will restrict movement on both sides, but since the US has the bridging equiment and the Iraquis don't, it will hamper Iraq more than the US.

The river breach can happen anywhere from G+36 to G+48. Baghdad at G+72.

[billhilly]

Daniel Ellsburg is google friendly.

[Illbay]

Wow! That was as good an analysis as any I've seen from STRATFOR.

If you don't mind, what is your background?

[LayoutGuru2]

I've added a few missing arrows.

[section9]

Ideally, the US Army should turn east a little north of Baghdad in order to pin the Iraqui army against its own river line. They should then envelop Baghdad, without entering it.

The role for airmobile, apart from securing the river crossings, will be to block the roads east to Iran, to prevent flight by Iraqui units there. To this end, you will note the British have supplied their 16th Air Assault Brigade, which is conceptually similar to the 101st, but which is short on helicopters. But operationally, it means the 101st Airborne has four brigades, instead of three, which is good given the massive mission of the airmobile forces.

One of the things I believe that you can count on is the use of several airmobile companies from the 101st to seize the five bridges over the Euphrates, just southeast of Baghdad. Securing these will allow lateral movement and support between the left pincer (101st, 3rd ID, other assorted units) and the right (Marines, various Army, and British 7th Armored Brigade-I believe the Brits will be commanding the right pincer).

Two things are missing. First, there is a buildup going on in northwestern Saudi Arabia near Arar, close to the region where Saudi, Jordan, and Iraq meet. No one is talking about it, other than the fact that the Americans have taken over an airfield and the Saudis have sealed off entrance to the airport. The highway that runs through Arar begins at a port in the Red Sea and moves all the way through Arar to Baghdad.

Second, the role of the forward element of the 82nd Airborne Division is not being discussed. Some have speculated that the 82nd will be used to seize Saddam International. This is a possibility, but only just, as there isn't an American or British commander who hasn't read about Operation Market Garden. However, if such a coup de main could be achieved (with the airlanding brigade being reinforced by an armored column coming up from the Southwest), then we could begin airlanding infantry. Recall that Market Garden was defeated because the Pegasus Division landed on an SS Panzer corps that was stationed near Arnhem. The Iraqis don't have anything approaching the quality of German infantry, and their T-series Soviet tanks are in woeful disrepair.

Speaking of which, we haven't heard much from the 75th Ranger Regiment lately, have we?

This campaign will be true blitzkrieg. You'll find that when the campaign history is written, much will have been made of von Manstein's plan of campaign for France and the Low Countries in May of 1940. That's the template, people.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[mcgredo]

The H3 airstrip complex in western Iraq near the Jordanian border is the probable target of the troops at the Saudi airfield. During the last war the Iraqis were shooting Scuds from along the Baghdad-Jordan highway. This time around they want to prevent that--it sucked up in inordinate amount of airpower to conduct the scud hunt. They'll probably seize H3, then set up patrols along the highway to prevent a replay of last time.

[wretchard]

Thank you Chris, for your fine analysis. Geography requires certain things to happen. We may not anticipate all of those things, but I believe many of the elements you've mentioned will make their appearance, for the simple reason that they have to.

[glorgau]

This campaign will be true blitzkrieg.

I bet that it will be more like Reforger. Back when the plan was to reinforce West Germany from the states, the main depots for equipment were in Holland. The plan was to fly in the troops, pick up the stored tanks, artillery, etc. and have them force march to the front in Germany. Along the way refueling stops would be planned, and traffic routed through areas that were presumed to have been a treated to a full NBC threat. The HEMTTs were designed expressly for this scenario.
This was all practiced and planned from the 80s forward.

[Norman Arbuthnot]

One of the things I believe that you can count on is the use of several airmobile companies from the 101st to seize the five bridges over the Euphrates, just southeast of Baghdad.

I wouldn't count on that at all. The bridges are probably wired to be blown up. If Saddam, as reported, has already wired 700+ oil wells to blow it is probable that key bridges have been wired as well.