[ARCADIA]

I've been reading so much about this, so much of "the war starts next week and then it doesn't'" etc. We professional evaluations of all this information overload. So please contribute, explain your analysis and cite your sources (generally, doesn't have to library notation stuff).

TIA - ARCADIA

[Stopislamnow]

They will do thier "combined" statement. Go home, give thier solo statements.

Coupla hours later, BOOM! So, Monday or Tuesday for me.

Keeping troops on a "hair trigger" for any long period of time is destructive. Kinda like feeding a pit bull kittens its entire life, then one day getting a kitten for a pet.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

monday night maybe tuesday bush is going live at 8 pm and he is going to say SADDAM BE SOMEWHERE ELSE IN 48 HOURS (he wont )then the fire works will begin 48 hours and 1 minute after bush's address

[Milanese]

The war began in 1991. It hasn't ended.

[fifteendogs]

This is a no brainer. Bush is going to eliminate Saddam, the so called dominant media and the Hollywood wierdos by having a major announcement on Sunday, March 23 about 30 minutes after the Oscar Awards start. Won't that be fun.

[DugwayDuke]

After this conference, it will be pretty obvious that war will begin shortly. Consequently, the wait will not be long. The anti-war demonstrators will be out in force beginning Monday, who knows what else the French will try, and we've already got peaceniks wanting to take this to the UN General Assembly. Waiting for the dark of the moon or giving Saddam several days is a non-starter. No, it won't be long.

I expect a Presidential address on Sunday night giving Saddam until high-noon (DC time) on Monday to leave Iraq. That's 8PM Iraq time. The bombing begins shortly there after, say four hours, or midnight Iraq time (4PM Monday night DC time). The troops will cross the border about four hours later, say 0400 Tuesday, Iraq Time or 8PM DC time.

[AndrewC]

Do you even think it will start?

If Bush is a man of his word, which also makes his concern over his job a secondary consideration, he will attack a non-complying Saddam. If he is not a man of his word, which would seem to make his job security of primary importance, he would realize that not attacking will end his political career. He will attack. When? within one week. A complying Saddam does not exist. The photograph of an airplane body which is on Rush Limbaugh's site is enough evidence of a tie to terrorism to justify an attack. First, it was pointed out by (a) defector(s) along with how it was used. Second, it is not near an airport but is near a facility which the Limbaugh site says "UN inspectors say this was once and could still be the site of BW research." Third, Saddam has not openly acknowledged it or explained its use.

[Illbay]

Personally, I think it pointless to speculate.

I just wish it would START.

[mhking]

Tuesday, late PM rush (EST).

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

The 101st Airborne is just in place this weekend. Franks is back in Qatar. Some ships off Turkey are now in the Red Sea. B-2's left Missouri 2 days ago. Underground is begining attacks in Iraq.

72 hours.

[Consort]

Let Saddam escape and follow him to Osama's hideout.

[RaceBannon]

I think it is within 12 hours of the orders release as a basic start point, any time after

but, with more things off loading in Turkey as one thread said, it wont be until that stuff is on the ground

Otherwise, they are waiting untill the missile ships are in the red sea, not the med

All bets are off if they think those scuds in southern Iraq are armed and pointing to Kuwait or Israel.

[Diddley]

I, too, believe that the war has already started (in earnest now, in addition since 1991).
Special Forces, etc., are raising havoc (but "quietly"), gaining mucho intelligence, establishing hit-points, rigging explosives and such, . . .
But the delays are frustrating me. My only salvation is that I believe "moron" Bush is playing a masterful chess game.
My guess is Mar 18 +/- 2 days. (I know that that isn't very precise.)

[elbucko]

The day after we capture Bin Laden.

[finnman69]

By Friday

[xzins]

It appears that the UN route is drawing to a close. That's what the Azores meeting means.

There must be a general call by the coalition of the willing for inspectors/journalists/non-Iraqis to leave the country. If there were one final question put to the UN, that would take place tomorrow. They would know by the end of the day if anyone were interested. The warning could be issued Tuesday. Allowing 72 hours for folks to gather their things and then leave, that would put us to Friday as the earliest date that an air campaign could begin.

Protection against a chemical attack would be to deploy forces to regions unknown to the enemy. I expect the ground forces to move shortly thereafter.

Earliest is Friday/Saturday.

[pfflier]

Saddam Hussein has been holding out for the best deal.

He will go in exile before an attack but may destroy his oil fields and gas Northern Iraq as a going away present. He may leave bio/chemical booby traps in his palaces and he may attack the CONUS and Great Britain with the WMD he doesn't possess.

He may leave his sons in charge to carry on the fight

He will become the "leader in exile" from North Korea.