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War resolution faces uphill battle

By Tom Raum
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - President Bush makes threats, then backs away from them. He endorses a deadline, then abandons it. The administration’s start-and-stop diplomacy in courting U.N. support against Iraq reflects how far U.S. stock has fallen in rallying international opinion.

Still lacking the votes for its resolution, the White House abruptly changed tactics again on Thursday, indicating it was willing to delay a showdown until next week in hopes of winning more support. That would render moot the March 17 deadline the resolution has for Iraqi compliance on disarmament.

Despite Bush’s insistence on a vote and his challenge a week ago to Security Council members "to show their cards and let the world know where they stand," the administration has been delaying the vote all week.

Furthermore, Secretary of State Colin Powell opened the door Thursday to ditching the resolution entirely, telling a House Appropriations subcommittee that the options are "to go for a vote and not to go for a vote."

Despite all the jockeying, the United States has been unable to make a persuasive case to gain the nine votes needed to pass the resolution to disarm Saddam Hussein by force. Even if it does muster the nine, threatened vetoes by France and Russia could torpedo the resolution.

The administration’s prestige in the international community has eroded markedly since it won the council’s 15-0 endorsement in November for the resolution that sent weapons inspectors to Baghdad and threatened "serious consequences" if the Iraqis didn’t cooperate.

The administration insists that Saddam continues to violate demands to disarm while playing for more time. But public sentiment worldwide clearly favors giving the inspectors more time, and that is reflected in the hardening position of Security Council members lined up against the United States.

Critics accuse Bush and some on his national security team of heavy-handed tactics and clumsy diplomacy, including the president’s insistence that he doesn’t need U.N. "permission" to use force against Saddam.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s dismissive comments in January about France and Germany as part of "Old Europe" helped stiffen opposition in Paris and Berlin to the U.S. position. And Rumsfeld’s expression of doubt this week about British military participation in a war with Iraq caused new problems for Bush’s staunchest ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Rumsfeld’s comments, making it sound like Britain’s help was not needed, were immediately seized on by Blair’s opponents.

"I believe we have approached this process cloaked in hubris rather than humility," Rep. Nita Lowey of New York, senior Democrat on the Appropriations foreign operations subcommittee, told Powell. "I believe it will take years to rebuild our relationships with many of our major allies and our stature in the global community."

Lee Hamilton, an Indiana Democrat who was chairman of the House International Relations Committee during the first Persian Gulf War, said such talk by the president and Rumsfeld may play well at home but "has a very negative ring in the international community," suggesting U.S. "arrogance and insensitivity."

Hamilton, the director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, attributed the confused appearance of the administration’s recent maneuvering to "crunch time for the diplomats, and they’re scrambling to get votes."

The administration’s shifting diplomacy underscored its frustration at being unable to seal the deal at the United Nations while more than 225,000 U.S. troops are poised in the region, ready to advance.

"The administration I think has come to the conclusion that the longer this process drags on diplomatically, the harder it is to build a coalition to go to war, not easier," said Philip Gordon of the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

Sandy Berger, who was President Clinton’s national security adviser, suggested "the French, the Russians and the Chinese are farther away from us than they were a month ago."

Powell, in his congressional appearance, conceded deep differences remain with the Security Council. But he gave no ground, suggesting, "The day of reckoning is fast approaching." And, he insisted, "The United States is not isolated on this issue."

Tom Raum has covered national and international affairs for The Associated Press since 1973.