Remember that "everyone I've talked to in my circle of influence/knowledge" does not comprise a demographically representative sample. That is, you know folks in your own geographic area, in your own field, mostly people who are close enough to you to talk about an upsetting subject that most people are scrupulously avoiding. The polls are done in such a way that they represent the views of people all over the country, from every educational, socio-economic, cultural, age, and gender group, so they are more representative.
I mean, for the record, everyone I know despises Bush and worships Clinton. But that's just because I live in an incredibly left-wing area. Doesn't mean the rest of the country feels the same way as my acquaintances do.
Then another question is why someone would give their opinion to a complete stranger? From my perspective my "circle" does not hold back their respective opinions, but maybe I'm wrong.