N. KOREAN LAUNCH OF MISSILE THAT HAS JAPAN 100% IN RANGE, ANTICIPATED (JAPAN NEWS SOURCES)

Yomiuri News (Original in Japanese) ^ | 13 March 2003 | Yomiuri News (Original in Japanese)

[AmericanInTokyo]

YOMIURI SHIMBUN WEBNEWS (from the original Japanese version/"Freepranslation" by "AmericanInTokyo"). Top story (13 March 2003 Japan Time):

--It has been revealed that increasing indications are that the North Koreans are going to lauch a No-Dong missile toward the Sea of Japan, as a test of the rocket's capabilities and in further escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

--This information is confirmed through various sources of the Japanese government to Yomiuri News. The information aligns with satellite intelligence by the US, collected recently, which shows apparant North Korean intents, and the information was passed on to the Japanese government.

--The Japanese AEGIS warship, Myoko, is steaming toward the Sea of Japan. The Japanese Maritime Self Defense force is increasing it's alert level.

--The Japanese government sees this as another ratchet up by Kim Jong il in his game of 'brinksmanship' with the United States. They do not know if it is a bluff, but they are taking no chances based on intelligenc received.

--The USA is strengthening efforts with (redacted) by the USS Invincible from Sasebo Port, as well as increase in RC135-S (Cobra Ball) elint craft from Kadena AFB.

--If such a No-Dong launch takes place in the next few days, it will be serious. It will be a blatant disregard for the 1999 US-North Korean missile launch agreement, and further will be a violation of the 2002 Pyongyang Statement concluded between Kim Jong il and Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi.--This launch could occur within days, or perhaps a few weeks. At any rate, it will be seen as an other escalation by Pyongyang, and probably timed for US action on Iraq. This report follow another report last week on FR: "Kyodo News: USA Is Warning of Possible Launch of NODONG Missile By North Korea (7:20 pm Eastern)" (AIT analysis)

Technical Details: Range (km) 1,350-1,500 CEP (m) 190 (Previously thought to be several thousand meters) Diam. (m) 1.32-1.35 Height (m) 15.852-16 L. W. (kg) 15,852-16,250 Stage Mass (kg) 15,092 D. W. (kg) 1,780-2,180 Thrust (Kg f) Effective: 26,051 (-709) Actual: 26,760-26,600 Burn time (sec.) 110 Isp. (sec.) Effective: 226 - SL due to vains steering drag loss of 4-5 sec. Actual: 230 Vac.: 264

[kaylar]

As said earlier, and the FR moderators I believe agree, enough of the jokes about the name of the North Korean missile, as silly as it sounds. This joke is way old. Take that to a humor thread if you have to, please. Or if you want to freepmail yourself with it, have a grand time.

Agreed, and I for one can't believe there are still people posting,"All your ____ are belong to us." That's how many years old now?

And thank you for getting this information from the local media to us . It's good that FR has such global reach and so many members that cnn/ap/up/reuters can be bypassed.

[LiberalsWorstNightmare]

Congrats. You win the idiot award.

[jerseygirl]

Meanwhile, what's up between China and Taiwan? Any increase in Chinese rhetioric/forces? ( I do think China is in tacit agreement with NK's actions.)

[Normal4me]

The Japanese AEGIS warship, Myoko, is steaming toward the Sea of Japan. The Japanese Maritime Self Defense force is increasing it's alert level.

If NK issues a maritime warning and Japan has a ship in the area, would that constitute a 'Hostile' act of aggression by NK?

[skeeter]

I'm sure Mr Kim feels emboldened by all the anti-American rhetoric coming out of the UN, US press and idiot local protestors.

Another potential holocaust made possible by our friends on the left.

[sushiman]

"The Japanese national psyche to avoid any kind of geo-political confrontation and diplomatically be all things to all people is deeply imbedded; has been there for nearly 60 years. But the pissed-off, samurai nationalist warrior spirit also co-exists way down 'in there'. If push comes to shove, it'll roar out and surprise many folks. Most of the rest of Asia knows this, too.

I've been here 17 years so can tell you AIT has got it right . The Japanese are an extremely proud people , and almost fanatically loyal to the government and the flag . Many still revere the Emperor . They'll fight if the government SAYS they must , and they will fight WELL .

[LiberalsWorstNightmare]

I am assuming they will not necessarily announce in advance the mariner's warning, like they did with the modified scud launch earlier last week. I wonder if they think the J's or we will attempt to shoot it down.

[L,TOWM]

>>>>>ragtag JDA<<<<<<

I would hardly consider AEGIS equipped warships, F-15's, and M1IPMP MBT's built under license, to be "ragtag". The only thing holding the Japanese back from being a complete regional power is their constitution (written by General McArthur) and domestic political considerations.

In 2003, the sleeping giant is on the Western side of the Pacific, and the DPRK would really mess up some long range PRC plans if they were to awaken the land of Bushido.

[LiberalsWorstNightmare]

But he (Kim) sure noticed the MOAB test yesterday! he he he he...

[McGruff]

Well this is interesting:

S.Korea-bound stealths make stop in Hawaii

From the National Desk
Published 3/12/2003 4:38 PM

HONOLULU, March 12 (UPI) -- A flight of radar-evading F-117 stealth fighters was scheduled to take off from Hawaii Wednesday and continue a journey to South Korea to take part in annual military exercises that North Korea has angrily denounced as a provocation and dress rehearsal for war.

The New Mexico-based fighters that landed at Hickam Air Force Base on Oahu Tuesday will be the first F-117s to take part in a segment of Operation Foal Eagle, an annual joint exercise held by American and South Korean forces to practice their response to a theoretical attack by North Korean commandos.

The stealth fighters' ability to be nearly invisible to radar gives the United States a first-strike capability that has not been integrated into previous Foal Eagle exercises and comes as tensions on the Korean Peninsula are on the rise.

The Pentagon has recently downplayed the political importance of Foal Eagle, which is designed to test the response to an attack on South Korea by North Korean raiders operating off submarines or small boats.

The exercise will also help the often-solitary F-117 play a role in battles involving other aircraft and ground forces, an Air Force spokeswoman at Hickam said.

"What we found is that we needed to train with other aircraft and other branches to make sure that we can integrate," Maj. Tina Barber-Matthew told the Honolulu Advertiser. "The 117 doesn't fight a war by itself."

Foal Eagle began last week and runs through early April. North Korea has declared that the exercises are being held to prepare for an invasion of the North.

The overall level of friction between the United States and North Korea has been on the rise this year since Pyongyang announced it was restarting a uranium processing plant. The United States dispatched B-1 and B-52 bombers to Guam this month while North Korea has recently tested an anti-ship missile in the Sea of Japan and confronted an Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance plane 150 miles off the Korean coast.

Ralph Cossa, president of Honolulu's Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Advertiser that he expected to see more potentially dangerous encounters between North Korea and the United States as Kim Jong Il continues "to push buttons."

He said: "We were lucky, I think, that nobody was shot down ... because the only defenses that that plane has is the ability to get out of there quickly."

He added: "I would certainly be talking with the 5th Air Force in Japan about bringing combat air patrol aircraft up when those things fly."

Meanwhile, Hawaii also played host to another major U.S. asset this week as the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its battle group pulled into Pearl Harbor en route to the Persian Gulf. The Hawaii-based cruiser USS Chosin will sail with the Nimitz next week when it resumes the voyage it began when it left San Diego March 3.

(Reported by Hil Anderson in Los Angeles and Pam Hess in Washington)Copyright © 2001-2003 United Press International
 

[LiberalsWorstNightmare]

I think they will fighter escort our electronic intelligence aircraft from now on, over the Sea of Japan, after that little 'incident' last week with the North Koreans trying to play Wang Wei. I don't blame the Americans for splashing the little bastards' MIGs if they ever come that close again in international waters.

[judicial meanz]

AIT:

Washington Times is reporting the same thing, except they think it may be a Tae-Po-Dong 2. An article excerpt is below:



North Korea prepares new test of missile
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES


North Korea is preparing another missile test, which would break Pyongyang's moratorium on long-range ballistic missile flights, U.S. intelligence officials said. Top Stories
Meanwhile, a separate test Monday of a new anti-ship cruise missile, the second in two weeks, was a failure, with the 100-mile-range missile failing to fly properly because of a guidance system problem, the officials told The Washington Times.
Recent satellite photographs of a North Korean base showed activity that appeared to be flight-test preparations, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
"There aren't indications of an imminent launch, but it is something they might well do," one U.S. official said. "It's certainly a possibility."
A second official said the activity is being watched closely and that there are concerns that the flight test, which would be North Korea's third in recent weeks, will be of the Taepo-Dong 2 ballistic missile.
A third official at the Pentagon said, "Clearly, the potential is there for a launch with little or no notice."
U.S. officials said the missile tested Monday was a North Korean version of the Chinese-made HY-2 Silkworm anti-ship missile that has an estimated range of up to 100 miles.
The second flight test of the new missile failed because of problems with the guidance system, U.S. officials said. The missile flew about 80 miles over the East Sea/Sea of Japan.
The preparations and the cruise-missile flight tests come amid growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The Pentagon is dispatching six F-117 Stealth fighter bombers to South Korea for exercises to begin next week, said Defense Department spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis. It will be the first time since 1993, when the first crisis developed concerning North Korea's nuclear-weapons program, that the radar-evading aircraft are moved to South Korea.
Earlier this month, 24 B-1 and B-52 bombers were sent to Guam to deter any North Korean military action.
North Korean jets also threatened an unarmed U.S. reconnaissance aircraft March 2, locking targeting radar on a U.S. Air Force RC-135 flying in international airspace 150 miles from North Korea's coast.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun yesterday called for maintaining a strong alliance with the United States.
"The staunch Korea-U.S. combined defense arrangement is greatly contributing to our national security," Mr. Roh said in a speech at the Korean Military Academy. "The solid ... alliance should be maintained even more so."
North Korea, meanwhile, repeated its call for direct talks with the United States.
"If the U.S. turns to a military option in the end, persistently turning down the [North´s] principled proposal for direct talks, it will lead to a catastrophic situation," North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary.
In Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi sought to play down the cruise-missile test on Monday, telling reporters that it was "not an emergency." He said Japan would work with the United States to prevent Pyongyang from taking reckless action.
Stocks in Tokyo fell to a 20-year low after reports in the Rodong Sinmun that the test was more than a simple military drill.
Defense officials said North Korea's first two missile tests were directed at the United States. Pyongyang is trying to force the United States to negotiate directly with its communist government, something President Bush has ruled out.
North Korea's government is expected to announce a warning of the next missile test soon, perhaps as early as today, the officials said.
Pyongyang released an official notice in advance of the missile tests that happened Feb. 24 and Monday.
A major worry among U.S. officials is that the upcoming test, which would be the third in recent weeks, will be a second flight test of its new long-range Taepo-Dong 2 ballistic missile, which was flight-tested for the first time in August 1998.
The CIA said in a report made public in December 2001 that North Korea is improving the Taepo-Dong 2. The missile can carry a warhead weighing several hundred pounds up to 6,200 miles, "sufficient to strike Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the continental United States."


Excerpted: original article below:

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030312-477649.htm


I think that the NK government is rapidly approaching that smackdown line they want so bad. I also read somewhere they are poised to do an underground nuclear test quite soon.

Good luck and keep your head down AIT!

[Centurion2000]

In reading this and the Japanese reaction, I wouldn't surpised that if that missile was shot down.

[GOPJ]

How do two diametrically opposed ideas exist within the same culture in such seeming peace? Does the Japanese discipline and self-control exist to balance the inner samurai?

My take: The Japanese national psyche to avoid any kind of geo-political confrontation and diplomatically be all things to all people is deeply imbedded; has been there for nearly 60 years. But the pissed-off, samurai nationalist warrior spirit also co-exists way down 'in there'. If push comes to shove, it'll roar out and surprise many folks. Most of the rest of Asia knows this, too.

[bonesmccoy]

AIT-
No Dong missiles are not thought to have the range to hit US targets (unless you count islands in the Aleutians).

The issue is the upper stage of the booster rocket.

They have a two stage vehicle. Like China ten years ago, they're missing the third stage.

Let's hope LORAL/LOCKHEED doesn't get unpatriotic ideas.

[SauronOfMordor]

Sounds like a good place to field-test our ABM systems

[Rain-maker]

JONG is a NUT : ALERT

[bonesmccoy]

The sociological patterns of the last sixty years reflect less of the Japanese history and more of the patterns of Western domination.

There is intense shame associated with losing. Clearly, the US was the victor. Some Japanese were angry with Japanese Americans who were felt to be "traitors". Such "traitors" were responsible for decoding Japanese messages and saving the lives of probably tens of thousands of American GI's.

It was commonly opined in Hawaii that any Japanese Americans would have been caught and slaughtered by the invading Japanese force.

Perhaps much of that is hearsay. But, Bataan seems to demonstrate the hatred magnified by the inappropriate application of bushido.

One can not apply 18th Century patterns to modern Japan. While Japanese society has many social norms that reflect "tradition", the business and political climate is governed by US interests.

Japanese business and politics appears pragmatic. If they get a profit and build security, they are happy.

The problem is that Japan realizes that they are not secure. The issue is the response of the second largest economy on Earth. Will it join asiatic nations in anti-American activity (which is what NorKor and PRChina wants)?

Instead, Koizumi and Japan have chosen differently.

They appear to have sided with the US on the basis of principle and pragmatism.

Let's face it... a strong peace is more profitable than a weak one.

Reagan gave us a "strong" peace.

Clinton gave us a "weak" peace.

[Iron Eagle]

Perhaps we can test some anti-missle tracking systems on all this launches. I don't purport to know our capabilities, but if we have confidence in them, this might be an opportunity tio demonstrate that we can kill missles launched by N. Korea.

What Freeper knowledge do we have about shooting down such surface to surface missles?

[John Valentine]

Hi AIT!

Do you have any idea what the throw weight of the Nodong is? It isn't mentioned in the technical details.

If I assume that it is 300 kg or so (subject to correction), then with a CEP of 190 meters this think would be a very expensive delivery vehicle for a fairly ineffective TNT explosive warhead.

It would seem that it is only useful as a nuclear delivery system.

Also, is there any grit in Japan for an action against a launch at this time, either ship launched, or (dare I hope) a surreptitious use of the American airborne laser?