[branicap]

Kosta,where did I show any optimism???

I said "turning point for Serbia"...for the worse,I`m afraid!

The fate of Zoran Djindjich is a typical example of the old axiom:"Beware of what you wish!You might get more than you`ve bargained for!"

Djindjich did,with fatal consequences!

In the line with my previous posts:Djindjich had made a Faustian bargain with Devil few days before 5th of October.I was just watching,again,a documentary about that event:"Djindjich is asking his wife:Should I go to the meeting with Legiya or not?And ,her reply was:He can kill you tonight or any other day so,why not!Go."Djindjich had,allegedly,struck a deal with Legiya and his Red Berets,not to use force against demonstrators.But,lately,some other details became public which contradict that story!Legiya backed off ONLY because,during the day,he couldn`t get a reinforcements and because somebody had told him that some army units would oppose him!He and his boys would loose.

Djindjich had made very bad mistake:he believed that he "belonged" to the group!And,he left almost whole Slobo`s team in police,State Security intact!He ,as a Prime Minister, was loughing during the trial of four Red Berets members accused for the assassination of four members of SPO and attempted murder of Vuk Draskovich.In any civilised country the whole IV Departement of the State Security (survelliance) would be arrested on the spot.Djindjich had done nothing,he continued to evesdrop on Draskovich and tried to do the same to Kostunitsa!

But,in the other hand,Djindjich had put himself between the rock and a hard place:the moment he sold Milosevich to Hague,he was doomed!Hague demanded more and more,and more....remember the rebellion of the Red Berets last year?

Seselj was well informed:he said that 30-40 more indictements are in the bag,and,this time,the top people from State Security are on the list!Legiya is just a thug,a small criminal from Belgrade who had to run away and join the Foreign Legion in order not to go to prison in 1986-87.Just like his comrade de guere,Ante Gotovina from Croatia!

Red Berets are a private enterprise,responsible to no one but to themselfs and their bosses!And,they will not go to Hague or to Serbian courts,God forbid.Without a blood shed.

Djindjich was stupid,he wasn`t an old vily fox like Yeltsin.In august 91 Gorbachov was deposed and people of Russia were on the streets of Moscow.One unit of the KGB infamous Group "Alfa" was ordered to break up demonstrations and storm the White house.Their comander made a plan"Tanks will go first through and over demonstrators;Alfa will follow and...But,they decided to do some recconisance and,decided that there were to many people and that casualities would be horrendous!So,they decided against the action!Yeltsin was safe,the rest is history!

But,immediately after coming to power,Yeltsin went to visit "Alfa" qand than them for being "True Russian patriots and democrats"....And,within a few days,he disbanded the unit,turned some of them into bodyguards,and sack majority of them!Clever man.Djindjich left them intact,to became even more brazen and untouchable!

I believe that Djindjich is a colateral damage of the brutal Western policy against Serbia.It is beyond belief thast some people in the West thought that some people,so deeply involved in organized crime and state politics,and so well armed and with so much to lose,will go peacefully to jail???

In the last ten years more than 50 more or less important people were killed and their murderers were never found.Including Serbian Police Chief,previous Serbian Presdident Stambolich,they missed Draskovich(twice),....Legiya and his unit were directly involved in Stambolich and Draskovich case!

Now,Djindjich can discuss his failures with Ivan Stambolich,somewhere in "heavenly kingdom" where Serbs,usually ,go...

Djindjich is not the last,this is the beggining!

[Voronin]

I lean towards your positive outlook. Since 2000, the political system in Serbia has been significantly weighed in Dj's favour, despite the success of Kostunica's party in recent elections. My prediction is that there will be a major re-alignment of parties, with the number (30+?) dropping to around a dozen or so. I don't expect Micic to last long in her job either. Still, it's going to be very messy and we'll see some unusual partnerings. The downside to this is instability, the upside is that the West will have to tread carefully, as stupid public statements will only lead to more support, percieved or real, for politicians who do not necessarily want to wholly ape Western European ideals or those pesky 'nationalists'.

If I were to start playing Fantasy Cabinet, I'd have Avramovic as a short to medium term solution for economics minister...

VRN

[Tamodaleko]

1st and foremost the terrorist group "Zemun klan" needs to be either caught or eliminated. I prefer and expect the latter. Don't think the loose special forces are into surrendering, so a massacre is probable. If Legija & other commanders of the group find their way out from Serbia just like Zeljko Maksimovic - Maka (the organizer of eliminating Mr. Buha - the chief police officer) is believed to found sanctuary in Spain, than it is fair to look into foreign conspiracies. But before we go there, Serbian army and police with all means needs to promptly eliminate this group and set standard for future terrorists! Go and get them boys!

[DTA]

>>>>>I believe that Djindjich is a colateral damage of the brutal Western policy against Serbia.It is beyond belief thast some people in the West thought that some people,so deeply involved in organized crime and state politics,and so well armed and with so much to lose,will go peacefully to jail???<<<<

Isn't it like the playing domino effect? You first arrange dominoes, and in convenient moment, only have to push one. Then, watch them do the job by themselves.

The result?

Serbia with no president, no PM, no constitution, no money, "shocked and awed" population, paralysed at the right moment.

It is not important who pulled the triggers. What matters is who gained.

Both Serbian Government and NATO were swift to blame "criminals" for assasination. Why jumping to the conclusion before investigation is done?

The conclusion should be left to Serbian Warren Commision, of course.

[Gael]

Hague demanded more and more,and more....

I think that's the reason for yesterday's assassination. Just in the past week Djindjic' gov't announced that it would take steps to capture Gen. Mladic, that Col. Sljivancanin would be sent to the ICTY, and that it had been asked to cooperate in sanctions against Karadzic designed to aid his capture. In addition, there's talk that Legija and other Red Berets would be arrested and extradited to the ICTY. delPonte just wouldn't let it rest, despite Djindjic and others warning that the escalating demands put them in a politically impossible position.

Somehow, I doubt there'll be any more extraditions.