Posted on 03/11/2003 2:52:00 PM PST by Wallaby
�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������Not for commercial use. Solely to be used for the educational purposes of research and open discussion.
WASHINGTON
SADDAM'S WEAPONS
A U.S. attack on Iraq may well cause the very event it aims to avert: the use of weapons of mass destruction against Americans or U.S. allies, or the arming of terrorists with those weapons.
|
"Maybe he has stuff in the United States right now, ready to go. Who knows what his capabilities are?" |
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Friday that "it's a concern" that a war could spark Iraq's use of weapons of mass destruction, but added: "Ultimately, the risks of waiting outweigh the risks of action."
The concern is that Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein could unleash chemical or biological weapons against U.S. troops, against neighboring Persian Gulf nations or Israel, against Iraqi civilians or even -- using terrorists -- on American soil.
"The probability of his use of weapons of mass destruction would go up significantly if his regime were threatened with extinction," said retired Army Gen. William L. Nash.
Saddam would likely use "all means at his disposal" to defend himself or, if he is doomed, to "go down in a blaze of glory," said Nash, now an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations.
In his State of the Union address Tuesday, President George W. Bush said that given the danger that Saddam would use or share his weapons of mass destruction, he must disarm or be removed.
But Jim Lindsay, who directs the Brookings Institution's terrorism project, said that U.S. plans to topple Iraq's leaders produce "the situation in which they have the greatest incentive to give weapons of mass destruction to terrorists."
"Are we ready for that possibility? The president never talked about the price tag, and whether it's acceptable. That's the part of the debate that's been left out," said Lindsay, a former National Security Council official.
In a letter to the Senate's Select Committee on Intelligence in October, Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin wrote that Iraq appeared to be "drawing a line short" of using chemical or biological terrorism against the United States. But, he said, "Should Saddam conclude that a U.S.-led attack could no longer be deterred, he probably would become much less constrained in adopting terrorist actions."
In closed-door Senate testimony, a senior CIA official rated as "low" the odds of Saddam launching a chemical or biological attack against the United States in the near future, but as "pretty high" if the United States initiated an assault.
A high-ranking CIA official said late last week that this remains the agency's position.
Sen. Jim Talent, R-Mo., a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, agreed that Saddam may "use or try to use whatever he's got," if attacked. But better to end Saddam's threat now before it increases, Talent said.
The White House official said the biggest long-term threat would be Iraq's acquisition of a nuclear weapon. And, the official said, the CIA analysis of Saddam's outlook may be true right now, but at any time he could "massively miscalculate," as he did by invading Kuwait in 1990.
DANGERS
The administration contends that Saddam has failed to account for large quantities of anthrax, sarin, VX and other chemical or biological agents.
The use of weapons of mass destruction against U.S. troops would slow down military action while decontamination took place, but would be unlikely to cause mass casualties, because of training and equipment, said Jack Spencer, a military expert at the Heritage Foundation.
The biggest danger, he said, is that Saddam will use biological, chemical or perhaps radiological weapons against an "unprotected population" in Iraq or the United States.
"If he uses it against a civilian population, that would be extremely serious," Spencer said. "Maybe he has stuff in the United States right now, ready to go. Who knows what his capabilities are?"
Also, a vial of smallpox or other such agents could unintentionally get in the wrong hands in the chaos of war or its aftermath, analysts say. The very factors recited by the president - hidden weapons, mobile biological labs - make this possible, Lindsay said.
A nightmare scenario, he said, would be the smuggling into the United States of a small, easily hidden amount of a communicable biological agent that has been genetically altered so inoculations wouldn't combat it, causing "staggering death tolls."
The likelihood that Saddam would give weapons of mass destruction to terrorists, absent a U.S. attack on him, depends in part on his links with terrorists such as al-Qaida.
The White House has argued that such ties exist, while some analysts have been skeptical, noting the differing agendas of Saddam and al-Qaida. In an exchange with administration officials Thursday, Sen. Joe Biden, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Saddam and al-Qaida would more likely cooperate in a crisis - such as war.
WORTHWHILE RISK
Heritage's Spencer agrees a war would increase the chances in the short term that Saddam would use so-called weapons of mass destruction. But that prospect is precisely what makes U.S. action urgent, Spencer said.
Left to his own devices, Saddam will eventually employ his weapons to achieve his twin foreign policy objectives, destruction of Israel and domination of the region, Spencer said. "It's for that reason that we need to address the threat right now, to confront it head on - to minimize what might be a devastating future attack," Spencer said.
|
"The probability of his use of weapons of mass destruction would go up significantly if his regime were threatened with extinction," said retired Army Gen. William L. Nash. |
Lindsay suggests that containment might better prevent Saddam from using or sharing his weapons. When faced with a credible deterrence, such as during the Persian Gulf War, he has refrained from their use.
Lindsay said he understands why the administration hasn't discussed the risk of sparking the use of weapons of mass destruction as it tries to sell the public on the possible need for war with Iraq.
"What I hope is that the people in the White House don't believe their own sales job," he said, "and that they are just as attentive to the costs of acting as to the costs of not acting."
THE NEWS: Analysts, lawmakers and other officials say attacking Iraq could spur Saddam Hussein to use weapons of mass destruction.
THE ANALYSIS: Members of the Bush administration are pushing for action, saying the reward outweighs the risk. But some analysts say the risk has not gotten a proper public airing at all and should be discussed.
IRAQ'S WEAPONS
(Each separate category of weapons has a specific logo.)
Ballistic Missiles - Iraq has tested a missile that goes beyond theU.N-allowed 93-mile limit.
Biological weapons - Iraq has not accounted for at least 2.4 tons ofgrowth material, enough to produce 6,890 gallons of anthrax.
Chemical weapons - Iraq has not accounted for 1.5 tons of nerve agent VX.
Iraq has not provided credible evidence that it destroyed 550 mustardgas-filled artillery shells and 400 biological-capable aerial bombs.
Iraq has not accounted for hundreds of tons of chemical precursors,nearly 30,000 empty shells and rockets that could be filled withchemical agents.
Nuclear Weapons - Iraq has repeatedly attempted to buy uranium from abroad.
And like Mugabe has, and like Chavez has...
For those, the answer is "you can't have them because we will destroy you first".
And this is what is known as a very good thing.
Of course there are risks involved. However, Al-Qaeda terrorists started in 1992 during the Algerian conflict when the Islamic fundamentalists fought a bloody war with other radical religious groups in order to win their elections. The Islamists who escaped from the Algerian army ended up in Afghanistan where another brutal civil war had left the country isolated and at the hands of the brutal Muslim fundamentalists. Al Qaeda is responsible for the first WTC bombing, the bombing of the USS Cole, the bombing of the embassies in Africa and bombings of nightclubs and embassies around the world.
Guess who was in power in the nineties? The consequence of doing nothing made Al Qaeda stronger and bolder the result of which brought us the 9/11.
It is time to act, just as when Ronald Reagan retaliated for terrorist acts sponsored by Libya's Moammar Khadafy by targeting Khadafy himself, and terrorist activity sponsored by Libya ceased.
That's an old idea that has already become policy.
Saddam has been preparing since 1991. Time to roll.
Very astute. George Bush should be watching closely the advisors that recommended ignoring the Iraqi connection to the anthrax mailings and 9-11. I am guessing George "Clintin holdover" Tenet may be in those ranks.
If President Bush had told the United States and the world the truth that Saddam was the "true matermind" of 9-11 and the anthrax mailings, then it would not now be the United States against Saddam and the rest of the world.
Of course, if Turkey denies U.S. the northern front, the price for this decision will be paid by our G.I.s on the ground.
Quite so. It is we who have been living in denial, not him, unfortunately.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.